200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

Villain was 22/19/3. More importantly his fold BB to Steal is 70. Over 180 hands. No history.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $293.80
BTN: $271.05
SB: $461.85
BB: $396.45
UTG: $256.75

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $17

Flop: ($49) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $32</font>, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($113) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $72</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $237.80 and is All-In</font>,

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

......and his call PFR was what?

here i don't believe he is folding an ace, or a set (77, 88 or 99 are all in his range). actually 78, 79 and 89 are there too.

with your monster draw i would call his turn bet, then get it in if you hit the river.

i doubt he is triple barelling you here w/o a hand that has you beat, so you can fold to a river bet

it's a situation where you are stacking him if you hit almost every time, but you can save $160 when you miss

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

Yeah I think he will be callign often enough on the river when we hit for a call on the turn to be better. Also when he doesnt call us on the river is likely to have a large overlap with when he wont call our turn shove...

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

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Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

I think i fold pre but anyways...

I call turn, I dont think pushing solves anything apart from being called by 2pair/set/better ace etc. Villain has also led into you twice, i doubt he is bluffing.

You do however have a lot of equity on this board, and as said earlier i doubt he is triple barelling you here w/o a hand that has you beat, so you can fold to a river bet.

is the pf call standard? :I

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

I call the turn. Our A High could be good on its own a lot of the time

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

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Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand.

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Yeah, but u want alot of FE against a hand that has us beat. He might fold AJ, but I think he would call with AT. Do you think he ever folds AQ or AK?

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

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Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand.

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Can I re-iterate the above.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

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Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand.

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Can I re-iterate the above.

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Hey Primate...take about 2 seconds and THINK about what we're saying. You DON'T want worse hands to fold. You DO want better hands to fold. Which better hands fold the turn? What % do they make up of Villain's range?

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

call turn i think we have showdown value

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

here are pokerstove results where I input a range of hands that he calls us with.

Board: As 7h 9c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.144% 37.88% 00.27% 1000 7.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 61.856% 61.59% 00.27% 1626 7.00 { AA, 99-77, A7s+, KhQh, KhJh, JTs, 97s+, 87s, ATo+ }

not sure what you guys think of my range, but I don't think it's too bad considered we're labeling him as a light 3-bettor.

so, 38% of the time we're winning $350 ($113 in pot + $237 villain puts in on turn).

and 62% of the time we're losing $237 (the money we're shoving on the turn).

237(.62) = $146
350(.38) = $133

so our EV when we shove and he calls is -$13.

so we need to make up $13 in equity on our shove.

in order to make $16 based on fold equity, villain needs to fold 60% of the time.

so, basically if villain folds 60% of the time, our total EV is +$3.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

call &gt; shove. However, you all have seemed to have missed something. Getting it in with a lower draw is awesome.


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if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf

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calling &gt; 4b

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

4bet preflop

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

I like this a lot.

If we give villain a hand like AK then your 60/40 to lose the hand but with the money already in the pot and your fold equity i'm sure this is +ev.

I like a shove rather than calling hoping to hit because it folds out hands like A10 AJ AQ.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

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y not? vs.70% defends how much do u think u get a fold there? vs.any decent calling range AA KK QQ JJ even AK even AQ whats that like 3-4% of hands

so out of the 30% that he defends with 26% of those are folds... 26/30 = 86% folding with allot of money in the pot already..not to mention times ur behind and come out ahead by the river

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

150bbs deep

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

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y not? vs.70% defends how much do u think u get a fold there? vs.any decent calling range AA KK QQ JJ even AK even AQ whats that like 3-4% of hands

so out of the 30% that he defends with 26% of those are folds... 26/30 = 86% folding with allot of money in the pot already..not to mention times ur behind and come out ahead by the river

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blindly 4-betting w/o regard to history w/your opponent and game flow is not very good.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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150bbs deep

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ah, i stand corrected... what about a 4bet then?

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

i prefer calling this deep + position + decent hand. 4b isnt terrible

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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Gold dust. But I'm not shoving this preflop.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

i would rather call pf w/ A5s or A4s and 4-bet with A6s-A9s. also folding those some of the time. flop is standard. i really think call &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; shove on the turn. really don't see him folding better and our draws are well disguised and we have position.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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Gold dust. But I'm not shoving this preflop.

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Since this thread has already been hijacked. The key to Cole's 4-bet post and also the key if u want to bluff 4-bet fold with AXs is that since u have an Ace there's a significantly smaller frequency that the Villain can call a 4-bet.

Think of it this way. Vllain's calling range of a 4-bet is QQ+,AKo+

If hero 4-bets bluff with 56s...Villain can call with a possilbe 34 hands.

If hero 4-bets bluff with A5s...Villain can call with a possible 27 hands.

Therefore Villain will be folding 20% more of the time which is very significant.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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Gold dust. But I'm not shoving this preflop.

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Since this thread has already been hijacked. The key to Cole's 4-bet post and also the key if u want to bluff 4-bet fold with AXs is that since u have an Ace there's a significantly smaller frequency that the Villain can call a 4-bet.

Think of it this way. Vllain's calling range of a 4-bet is QQ+,AKo+

If hero 4-bets bluff with 56s...Villain can call with a possilbe 34 hands.

If hero 4-bets bluff with A5s...Villain can call with a possible 27 hands.

Therefore Villain will be folding 20% more of the time which is very significant.

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Its an awesome post and something I will defo incorporate into my game....slowly tho so I don't spew. lol

I think I would be right in saying that according to Cole's theory it would be better to shove w/ Axs than say a middle pocket pair 77,88 even 99.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

90% of villains turn betting range is calling a push.

call turn.

pf is way too thin unless you have a ton of history with him 3betting light.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

cts' 4-betting pf ai w/ axs is a bit outdated imo. i dont really mind the light 4-bet smallish but 4-bet shoving is sortve meh.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

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y not? vs.70% defends how much do u think u get a fold there? vs.any decent calling range AA KK QQ JJ even AK even AQ whats that like 3-4% of hands

so out of the 30% that he defends with 26% of those are folds... 26/30 = 86% folding with allot of money in the pot already..not to mention times ur behind and come out ahead by the river

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shoving is so bad. 4bet pf is a decent option though given stack sizes. still like calling ip better because our hand has value.

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

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Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $17

Flop: ($49) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $32</font>, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($113) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $72</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $237.80 and is All-In</font>,

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i hate shoving this turn vs almost anyone.
what exaclty are you trying to get to fold? villain isnt folding AX here. If he folds its because he has KK or less and you just lost all value your top pair had. But if he does have a better AX he still stacks off on like any river.
imo calling &gt; shoving &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; folding

Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
 

OK I've learnt my lesson. It's a defo call situation.

Villain had pocket 9's. A SET. Reload. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]