WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

I was told to post this in Leg so here goes:

I'm writing a paper on the WTO for my IBUS class and the dispute between the US and Antigua is really f'ing everything up. I can't seem to find a reason why the WTO ruling has absolutely no effect expect that America doesn't give a f. The WTO has never been so powerless before (or so it seems). What are the underlying causes for the ineffectiveness of the WTO ruling?

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

American arrogance, particularly from this administration, but both parties are to blame.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

Could you elaborate a little: wouldn't sanctions have effects on the US? What has the WTO done that has caused this roadblock?

I have tried searching online, but the info is so iffey. Thanks.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

It all stems back to 1924. The economy was in a recession and other countries were having issues with the farming industry. The united states was the only country at the time that could successfully grow large quantities of potatoes.

At that time, the WTO did not care that the United States didn't want to "share the wealth" as some say with reasonable potato sales to other countries. So basically, the WTO forced the US to sell potatos at 1% above cost to foreign countries that were having problems growing them.
This caused some tension and this is why the US doesn't care about the WTO or it's sanctions.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate a little: wouldn't sanctions have effects on the US? What has the WTO done that has caused this roadblock?

I have tried searching online, but the info is so iffey. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would think sanctions would affect the US, but sometimes I wonder if the people who make decisions even care. It doesn't change their paycheck week to week, or the fancy job they have lined up when they leave government.

The WTO has not put up any road blocks yet. But it is only as strong as its members. If the rest of the world is going to sit by and let the US remain out of compliance, the WTO is a very weak body. WHile some have commented at a couple of opportunities, we still have not seen complete disgust at the largest member's failure to comply and its unprecedented attempt to withdraw its commitments.

Here is a good read:

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-ha...-henderson.html

Also see www.AntiguaWTO.com.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

I wouldn't assume that the sanctions will be toothless. We will see. Probably soon.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
It all stems back to 1924. The economy was in a recession and other countries were having issues with the farming industry. The united states was the only country at the time that could successfully grow large quantities of potatoes.

At that time, the WTO did not care that the United States didn't want to "share the wealth" as some say with reasonable potato sales to other countries. So basically, the WTO forced the US to sell potatos at 1% above cost to foreign countries that were having problems growing them.
This caused some tension and this is why the US doesn't care about the WTO or it's sanctions.

[/ QUOTE ]

The WTO wasn't even established until 1995, and before that GATT was established in 1947.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

You have jumped the gun. We are waiting to see what the WTO will order.

It is inherent in the WTO to try and encourage "agreement." That takes time. So does the bureauracracy of any International organization.

But this dispute will ultimately mean a lot. Either the WTO wimps out, and the rest of the world loses faith in the WTO because it has no teeth and wont rile the US. Or the WTO imposes sanctions really significant, in which case even the Bush administration will have to take notice - the US is the prime economic beneficiary of the WTO system, if it falls apart there will be real US repercussions.

We should know by the end of January, is that right Jay?

Skallagrim

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

Skall is absolutely correct, except that IMO it will be the Dems that take notice and force change if the WTO grants Antiqua its requested IP relief. I wonder if Bush will care about that sanction. The entertainment industry will and it will cause the Dems to take action. In fact, it seems that some of the Democrate leaders in Congress are examining the matter.
I hope that we know before the end of January.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It all stems back to 1924. The economy was in a recession and other countries were having issues with the farming industry. The united states was the only country at the time that could successfully grow large quantities of potatoes.

At that time, the WTO did not care that the United States didn't want to "share the wealth" as some say with reasonable potato sales to other countries. So basically, the WTO forced the US to sell potatos at 1% above cost to foreign countries that were having problems growing them.
This caused some tension and this is why the US doesn't care about the WTO or it's sanctions.

[/ QUOTE ]

The WTO wasn't even established until 1995, and before that GATT was established in 1947.

[/ QUOTE ]


Well if he is writing a serious paper about the WTO, it should be safe to assume the OP has more than a passing knowledge of the "WTO"'s history.

Hence neither the OP nor many here need any background history lessons.

The toothlness stems from the basic fact that most of the history of resolution of trade disputes are done by agreement by the disputing countries outside of the "WTO" rubric.

Only recently, ironically at the US's pushing has there been any atepmt to formalize resolution along a tineframe and structure. But too many people worldwide in general, and poker players in particular think the WTO has anything like the history and power of even a US civil court, let alone the real force of a State or Federal court.

You want an example? Try telling a policeman you don't agree with the law, or his ability to enforce it as he or she see it. After you bond out of jail you might get a chance to argue the finer points of your legal distinction but toothless doesn't describe the power of the State to tell you how to act.

So the WTO history of "sucessful" resolution with real sanctions has perhaps as few as a single case for its foundation, unlike in the example perhaps a few centuries of case law.


Just an opinion,


D$D--your milage may vary, opinions are like rear-ends, please fold spindle and mutulate, all winners are chosen at random, decisions of the judges are never final....

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

The WTO isn't impotent. Its power lies in avoidance. Strip away bananas and beef and a couple other disputes the gorilla has never had to be woken. "trade wars" are never profitable
for either side. Its the presence of a global vs many bilateral pacts that makes the modern trade system workable.
So the power of the WTO, soft power, if you want to call it that lies in the fact that its absence is a HUGE loss of value to the citizens of every participating country. Everyone with a goddamn clue(excluding the USTR because they dont) in policymaking realizes how much of a boon MFN is. Look at modern industrial goods and they all have multiple points of origin. If everyone started to break the rules, the system would collapse. Look how long an issue takes to resolve, something in the line of 5-6 years. Each country could probably file hundreds if not thousands of cases and break the back of the dispute body. So most disputes are handled outside the formal mechanism, and things keep moving smoothly. Any trade disruption causes major ripples across the whole system.
A case at the WTO is like a game of chicken. Two nations drive at each other and discern which car is bigger(who has the best case) and the small one veers off and its over. Except the drive is a long one with a lot of pissing out the window and trash talk. A collision is in no one's best interest. The US is perhaps taking the first ever decision to drive head on into a better case. How ugly
can or how ugly will the WTO make it is kinda like a porno with a plot for trade economists and policymakers. A lot will depend on the other members and how seriously they take the US not observing common courtesy if you will pardon the term. If everyone agrees we are being [censored] and punishes us, the WTO has power. If not, then no. Thats why you see the shuttle diplomacy of Antiguan officials.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
The WTO isn't impotent. Its power lies in avoidance. Strip away bananas and beef and a couple other disputes the gorilla has never had to be woken. "trade wars" are never profitable
for either side. Its the presence of a global vs many bilateral pacts that makes the modern trade system workable.
So the power of the WTO, soft power, if you want to call it that lies in the fact that its absence is a HUGE loss of value to the citizens of every participating country. Everyone with a goddamn clue(excluding the USTR because they dont) in policymaking realizes how much of a boon MFN is. Look at modern industrial goods and they all have multiple points of origin. If everyone started to break the rules, the system would collapse. Look how long an issue takes to resolve, something in the line of 5-6 years. Each country could probably file hundreds if not thousands of cases and break the back of the dispute body. So most disputes are handled outside the formal mechanism, and things keep moving smoothly. Any trade disruption causes major ripples across the whole system.
A case at the WTO is like a game of chicken. Two nations drive at each other and discern which car is bigger(who has the best case) and the small one veers off and its over. Except the drive is a long one with a lot of pissing out the window and trash talk. A collision is in no one's best interest. The US is perhaps taking the first ever decision to drive head on into a better case. How ugly
can or how ugly will the WTO make it is kinda like a porno with a plot for trade economists and policymakers. A lot will depend on the other members and how seriously they take the US not observing common courtesy if you will pardon the term. If everyone agrees we are being [censored] and punishes us, the WTO has power. If not, then no. Thats why you see the shuttle diplomacy of Antiguan officials.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly!

The problem for poker is Antuiga is driving a broken big wheel and the US is driving an oversized not SUV but a massive 18 wheeler.

Yes Antigua has the better case but it is about as important here than these two meeting at an intersection and the big wheel rider screaming "but I have the right of way!"

The WTO might indeed in the future teach the US an object lesson, by hanging the US on its own petard, and making it pay in the future for the time worn grease spot in the intersection and might even give credit to Antigua but not intime for poker sadly.


D$D

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

D$D, I could not disagree with you more. The point is that in legal terms it is Antiqua with the better, bigger car (case). The other nations are confused that the US seems bent on committing suicide and believe that it will swerve at the last minute.
If the US doesn't swerve and a collision occurs, then everyone (WTO) dies and with it the US economy. The last time the world experienced a collapse of the world trading order was in the late 1920's. Then the nations of the world were not nearly so dependent on each other for trade.
OK, some do not think that Smoot-Hartley caused the Great Depression, but most think that it had a role. Do we really want to experience a collapse of the WTO?

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

The WTO has the power of offsetting tariffs, which are being sought by many other countries aside from Antigua. That is really the stick that the WTO wields. The US thought that everyone would simply ignore the opportunity for offesetting damage requests, but they did not. So instead of just tiny Antigua, the US is facing all of the euros and others. The US lost when everyone dog piled. It is only a matter of time until they will undo the UIGEA in the face of the WTO.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
The WTO has the power of offsetting tariffs, which are being sought by many other countries aside from Antigua. That is really the stick that the WTO wields. The US thought that everyone would simply ignore the opportunity for offesetting damage requests, but they did not. So instead of just tiny Antigua, the US is facing all of the euros and others. The US lost when everyone dog piled. It is only a matter of time until they will undo the UIGEA in the face of the WTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a US poker player I couldn't hope or wish for more.

The sum total of my life experience tells me the issue isn't that simple nor the solution as easy as suggested.


D$D

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
D$D, I could not disagree with you more. The point is that in legal terms it is Antiqua with the better, bigger car (case). The other nations are confused that the US seems bent on committing suicide and believe that it will swerve at the last minute.
If the US doesn't swerve and a collision occurs, then everyone (WTO) dies and with it the US economy. The last time the world experienced a collapse of the world trading order was in the late 1920's. Then the nations of the world were not nearly so dependent on each other for trade.
OK, some do not think that Smoot-Hartley caused the Great Depression, but most think that it had a role. Do we really want to experience a collapse of the WTO?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks JP. Antigua has the better case/car, the analogy isnt perfect. Smoot-Hawley was just a reflection of what went on in the world at the time. One big thing in trade/intl policy studies in the 90s was that the two great waves of trade deliberalization (1870s and around the Great Depression) led directly to the situations that set up the two world wars. Imagine the problems when oil comes OFF the market. Its bought and sold to countries openly(wiht the exception of China buying exclusivity in Sudan and Nigeria).
Or say copper and asphalt were taken off the world market. Its a [censored] criminal shame that politicians don't unite to fight the force against trade. Sooner or later if the will to keep liberalizing trade isn't there we will go back to colonial/mercantilist trading blocs and wind up coming to blows over commodities. We're THIS close to Brazil and India giving up on the WTO/GATT rounds. If that happens all [censored] will follow.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The WTO has the power of offsetting tariffs, which are being sought by many other countries aside from Antigua. That is really the stick that the WTO wields. The US thought that everyone would simply ignore the opportunity for offesetting damage requests, but they did not. So instead of just tiny Antigua, the US is facing all of the euros and others. The US lost when everyone dog piled. It is only a matter of time until they will undo the UIGEA in the face of the WTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a US poker player I couldn't hope or wish for more.

The sum total of my life experience tells me the issue isn't that simple nor the solution as easy as suggested.


D$D

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure anything has ever happened like this before. You said it yourself the WTO has never really had to do this. Im not sure the Bushies even realize what they've done. Of course they still think Christ is coming back before Hillary wins so it won't matter.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

Legislurker, I completely agree with you. With the declining dollar and record high gas prices, this is not the time to fool around with WTO system. You're right that the breakdown of the global trading system in the 1920's helped cause the world wide depression which lead to the rise of Adolf Hitler. The last thing we need now is a global depression.
I hate to say this because I am a former Republican. But it seems like the Democrats are the ones to pull the US back from this abyss; and not the fool in the White House.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

At the end of the day, Repubs and Dems are all the same, we're just being played for fools by those who hold the power. Whoever saves us (if we're saved) be thankful and that's that. Propagation of the two-party polarization is a poison pill we are feeding ourselves.

Great discussion guys, I am going to go ask some folks outside of the poker world if they are even aware of this "high stakes" game with the WTO.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

No they don't. Ignorance is our national culture.

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

Very good insights from a lot of different posters. A lot more thinking and researching ensues......

Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question
 

[ QUOTE ]


Im not sure anything has ever happened like this before. You said it yourself the WTO has never really had to do this. Im not sure the Bushies even realize what they've done. Of course they still think Christ is coming back before Hillary wins so it won't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Smart" Europeans are actually more scared of Hillary on trade issues. The love to hate Bush, as they have been able to make him look foolish when they "lost" an issue. Dems on trade are much more protectionist.

So we might end up with on-line poker but over all trade will suffer.


D$D