Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

Villain is TAGfish...but no stats because it's from a smaller site I play at. I've seen him limp/call a few times w/ a lot of Ax type hands. He usually C/R's flop w/ his strong hands.

I'm playing fairly solid but aggro. I just doubled through a little while ago when I flopped 2 pair, boated on the turn, and some random donk C/R AI...top pair no good sir. Villain made a comment after about how I always get paid off. Not sure what to make of that other than he's paying some attention at least. Anyways...on to the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($189.90)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($471.95)</font>
Button ($196.00)
SB ($71.40)
BB ($243.03)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($553.48)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $8, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($31) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $20.

Turn: ($71) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $52</font>, UTG calls $52.

River: ($175) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $389.95 and is All-In</font>

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

He's not folding an ace, you are representing a bluff. Check behind flop, check behind turn. Don't raise preflop, but it is okay sometimes.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

Not sure I like it. You're representing a very narrow hand range here and what are you really hoping to fold out here w/ that big a bet, that a smaller couldn't accomplish?

It looks like he either has some kind of aces up that got counterfeited (which he will probably fold) or set, that's trapping (which doesn't fold).

So I think a $90 bet would accomplish the same here, am I way off here?

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

you're kidding right?

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I really don't think there's anything that he calls a PSB that he'd fold to an overbet.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I think a $90 bet would accomplish the same here, am I way off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think villain is ever folding anything for $90 here. He also plays really straight-forward, so he has a set/2 pair practically never. Even if he does show up w/ 2-pair...like you mentioned, it got counterfeited.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's not folding an ace, you are representing a bluff. Check behind flop, check behind turn. Don't raise preflop, but it is okay sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he's folding an ace here, wtf? they're 200BB deep.

Also raise this PF all the time, wtf?

Checking behind on turn, sure, some of the time, but mostly we're picking this up, wtf+

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think there's anything that he calls a PSB that he'd fold to an overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? See I disagree...which is why it was either shove or just give up in my mind.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I think $200-$225 accomplishes the same thing.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

for those too lazy to do math, he needs to fold &gt;68% of the time to break even

i think you're getting called too much because your line isn't really consistent... why would you valueshove AK/AA/... here when he has a weak hand (he doesn't check 33/88/AT 3 times, so he has like AJ AQ a lot here imho)?

cbetting flop is perfectly fine, i think it's either 3barrel or give up on turn, if i 3barrel i'd make it like 59$ on turn and 80% pot on river ... but i pbb give up without better reads

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I like. He should fold everything except boats. Unless he likes to limp call UTG with AK o_0

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think a $90 bet would accomplish the same here, am I way off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think villain is ever folding anything for $90 here. He also plays really straight-forward, so he has a set/2 pair practically never. Even if he does show up w/ 2-pair...like you mentioned, it got counterfeited.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're so confident about this, then why do u need to bet so much to get him off of a weak ace?

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]

If you're so confident about this, then why do u need to bet so much to get him off of a weak ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he calls up to a PSB w/ most of his range. Agree w/ you though about $200 being just as good. Might even look scarier.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's either 3barrel or give up on turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're getting called too much because your line isn't really consistent... why would you valueshove AK/AA/... here when he has a weak hand (he doesn't check 33/88/AT 3 times, so he has like AJ AQ a lot here imho)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't I show up w/ 33/88/AA/AT/AK/AQ...hell even Tx here?

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I used to do this all the time, and it's generally terrible spew.

You have 2nd pair on the flop though and he hardly check/calls T/x on the flop so I'd check back 2 streets and hope to showdown versus a mid pocket.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I prefer a bet of like $230, if you know villain is taggish then I think this is fine tbh.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think it's either 3barrel or give up on turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're getting called too much because your line isn't really consistent... why would you valueshove AK/AA/... here when he has a weak hand (he doesn't check 33/88/AT 3 times, so he has like AJ AQ a lot here imho)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't I show up w/ 33/88/AA/AT/AK/AQ...hell even Tx here?

[/ QUOTE ]

you sure can, all those hands are the 3 points [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i'm just saying, he also knows he look weak ... why would you shove for value vs a weak hand instead of bet like 75% pot?

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I'm kinda going back and forth on this, you rep very few hands that make any sense and that shove on the river just seems very suspicious. However, this is nearly 250 bb deep so villian can easily fold reluctantly, and your read on him and especially his comment definitely helps your case here. If I had AT+, I'd have a really hard time letting this go to your river bet.

With that said, I thikn that's why this is a fantastic bet if you've got AK and something that I do on a regular basis (although I dont' shove, but that's just personal style i suppose). So with that said, I dont really like it. I think you're representing too little and a decent handreader will probably snap this off.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

god i really like this. nh.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would you shove for value vs a weak hand instead of bet like 75% pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point...but I'm not sure if villain's thinking that way. And FWIW, I make over-bets like this for value all the time. I've been getting more folds than usual in these spots, so I figured it might be a good spot to bluff.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you shove for value vs a weak hand instead of bet like 75% pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point...but I'm not sure if villain's thinking that way. And FWIW, I make over-bets like this for value all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too, but the reason you valueshove AK or Tx here is that villain will sometimes think 'wtf, why would he overbet a strong hand' and calls with AJ

you can't both valueshove Tx here and overbet bluff imho*

either he calls light (Ax) making valueshoving a good play, or he doesn't call light and valueshoving is a bad play

i agree with you that valueshoving here is sexy and a good play, so this means that bluffing is a bad play because he's not folding enough ... maybe your last 3 valueshoves in spot s like this didn't get called, but variance is no reason to start making overbet bluffs that have to work 70% of the time [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

*the only reason you should do both is for balancing, but balancing is hugely overrated (in spots like) this @ small stakes imho ... vs how many regulars do you get to like 3+ showdowns in situations like this? exactly :P

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

[ QUOTE ]
*the only reason you should do both is for balancing, but balancing is hugely overrated (in spots like) this @ small stakes imho ... vs how many regulars do you get to like 3+ showdowns in situations like this? exactly :P

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, at this particular site, the player base for 1/2 is really small. I play w/ these same regs all day everyday. Even if I do get snapped off here, it's still really good for meta-game (well that's my excuse at least). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

i don't think you have to balance (in spots like this because they don't occur often imho, i hope you don't run 250bb bluffs all the time [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) vs a tagfish regular anyway, he's not going to exploit you (by tightening up his calling range because you only valueshove) so why bluff?

either he calls too much and you should valueshove (and not bluff), or he folds enough and you should bluff (and not valueshove, although bluffsizing is another thing that can be discussed) ... i don't think you show down enough too make villain really change his calling range (and get enough opportunities to profit from that in the future)

imho tagfish regulars can't see the difference between a lot of spots ... no need to push here for metagame, just shoving your flushdraw+over on a flop where you have foldequity and he calls with top pair will give you the 'lol he's a maniac' image you want IMHO


*edit* i know that, theoreticly, our shoves here should always include a certain% of bluffs. but i think investing your time in figuring out what ratio of bluffs to valueshoves is optimal in a 250bb pot/spot like this vs a tagfish is an inefficient use of time

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

Like it, he probably doesn't have a boat unless he has exactly the T

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

sexy. You're getting called here very rarely.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

I think it's fine and agree 100% that the shove carries a LOT more fe than a pot sized bet here.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

if ur going to fire a 3rd time all in is your best option. No point in overbeting if youre only gonna overbet by 25-50. Also I think if you make a 2/3psb or less you are far more likely to get looked up. The fact that you are both deep I like it even more.

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

villain can easily put you on air, but hes still not calling that shove. Most tagfish dont follow through with their reads, especially for 200BB's on the river making a hero call with one pair.
Also that T is a great card for you becasue now he cant call with A6/A8/68 if he was slowplaying them on the flop and turn. So i like

Re: Over-bet bluff shove...250bb deep.
 

yeah there is no way he is calling with one pair. The only hand he can possibly have that will call you is AT, and he doesn't have AT.