Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Full Tilt $24+2 with 723 players

Background: Dodged a huge bullet on the bubble when my AJ beat KK. Tripled up soon after with AA against A10 and 99. Built up a decent stack since then.

Style of play: There seem to be a lot more all-ins going on right now than I would normally expect at this stage. Almost everybody is moving their chips around.

The situation: Within the first three hands after the consolidation to two tables.

The hand: Sorry I don't have a hand history. The blinds are 1500-3000 with a 400 ante. I'm 13th out of 18 with 34,000 chips. Two folds to me. I raise to 10,000 with 88. It folds to the BB who has 60,000 or so. He shoves. He has JJ. Game over for me.

Immediately after the hand occurred, I was mad at myself. I had played for four hours and outlasted 700 people only to go out like that.

I'm pretty certain that most of you will say I played the hand correctly. I can't see it being a good idea to fold to a reraise after comitting roughly 1/3 of my stack.

However, I was upset at myself for even getting involved in the first place. Although my M was just a little over 4, I wasn't feeling any immediate pressure to make a move.

I guess I have just been thinking a lot lately about position. With 7 people to act behind me, there is a pretty good chance that someone is going to find a hand that beats me. Obviously 88 is a fairly strong hand. Maybe I shouldn't be playing it from up front though in this case?

I have been telling myself lately that I'm playing to win the tournament. In the last few days, I haven't even been looking at the payout structure. My focus has just been on winning. If you're playing to win, I guess you are probably playing the 88 there.

Nevertheless, as fast and furious as the action had been for the last half hour or so, I can't help but think that I could have waited for a better spot and improved my position some.

First place was over $4,000 and I walked away with $86. Very disappointing. I felt I was playing as well as most of the other people left in the tournament.

So, do any of you guys ever lay down 88 in early position here? It seems very nitty and I might be focusing too much on the results. I was just wondering.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

With an M < 5, I'm personally open shoving 88 from any position.

In 3rd position with 88 and 7 still to act there's a 17.6% chance someone still to act has an overpair. I calculated using this preflop overpair equation I came up with previously.

So with an M of 4 and an 82% chance I have the best hand at this moment I think preflop shove is the best play here.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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So with an M of 4 and an 82% chance I have the best hand at this moment I think preflop shove is the best play here.

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Could you give a little explanation of why the open shove is preferrable over what I did? I have never really understood it I guess. I seem to be in the minority, but I almost always choose to make a normal raise and then shove the flop if my stack allows.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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So with an M of 4 and an 82% chance I have the best hand at this moment I think preflop shove is the best play here.

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Could you give a little explanation of why the open shove is preferrable over what I did? I have never really understood it I guess. I seem to be in the minority, but I almost always choose to make a normal raise and then shove the flop if my stack allows.

[/ QUOTE ]For myself it's just simpler than a more advanced move like go-n-go or raise/call. When I'm short I'm in push/fold mode and looking for spots to shove preflop. Since all my money is going in I just get it in with the max FE.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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When I'm short I'm in push/fold mode and looking for spots to shove preflop.

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Is there a specific point when you will usually stop making normal raises and start doing this instead? For instance, once you get down under 10 big blinds or something?

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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So, do any of you guys ever lay down 88 in early position here?

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This is my main concern here. If our only goal is winning the tournament, do we ever do anything other than raising with 88 in this spot? I'm not focusing on moving up a few spots for an extra 50 or 100 bucks.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

When you get below M=10/15bb, you should be shoving if you get involved at all. Under M=5, you start shoving a broad range. Read HOH II for detailed discussion and clarifying examples.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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Read HOH II for detailed discussion and clarifying examples.

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I read it. I just have a bad memory. :-)

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Definite shove pre. Maximize FE + weaker hands calling you = awesome.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Interesting situation imo... given table dynamic and hero's position which situation is more EV

1. Shoving with 88 here
or
2. Shoving any 2 from say sb to HJ

btw... i know all about 'M' etc. etc. but he's not under serious pressure here despite his low 'M'. I think at some point you have to ignore 'M' calculations and start making decisions based on other factors.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

I couldn't disagree more. With an M of 4 he is in under serious pressure. If 88 is 82% likely to be the best hand here...folding is defintely -EV. And that is bad poker.

Our goal should be to win the whole thing...and passing on this chance is not a good way to win one of these....

Shove and accept sometimes you'll run into an overpair and lose....(or AK and lose a flip....or A4 and lose to an Ace..etc ). Don't be results oriented.

It wouldn't have made a difference here, but not shoving with an M under 5 reduces your FE, and still commits you to the hand and that just is bad poker.

It's not pushing from late position with any 2 (with light action in front of course) or Shoving from EP with 88 with a low M. Its pushing from late position AND shoving the 88 with a low M. You should do both if you wanna grab the brass ring.

I do think players at low levels are more likely to call with mediocre hands in these positions, so I like to have a little bit of a hand when I shove to steal short handed...especially when my M is around 5...but NEVER pass on 88 here....its TOO good.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Easy preflop-push.

If you only raise to 10K and are called, you are going to hate most flops. Are you going to feel comfortable betting the following flops?
Any A + two other cards
Any two higher cards + low card

Probably not. Better to just push right now with the probable best hand. If you had 15BB+ UTG, you might not want to push... but it is probably marginal.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Not sure what your track record/ROI is in tournies so far, but i can say with certainty that you won't be a winning player if u open-fold 88 (even from EP) when u have 11BBs. I like raise/calling or open-shoving, but open-folding should not be an option. Your posts are interesting, indicating that you are/have the potential to be a good player...now start thinking about making EV+ plays...and quit being results-oriented.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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Definite shove pre. Maximize FE

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Yeah, this makes sense. It just always feels weird to shove 10+ BB preflop. I'm starting to see how it's not a bad idea though.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

There hasn't been a lot of discussion to stack sizes behind you but this is my biggest reason for shoving with a low M. Guys w/ big stacks can call in pos and play close to perfect against you, esp in the blinds. You eliminate the difficult decisions on flops you don't like, max FE, get calls from worse, etc.

From middle and late pos I think you should shove a very wide range against opponents in the blinds w/ stacks similar to yours. People play waaaay to tight and don't do a good enough job of adjusting their range.

If you are going to win this 88 is a mandatory shove.

Do we shove 44 here?

I would be really interested in taking a look at this preflop overpair equation.......

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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With an M < 5, I'm personally open shoving 88 from any position.

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This thread could have stopped after this was posted.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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This thread could have stopped after this was posted.

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Where's the fun in that?

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

This is push. even from UTG on ten-handed table and M=10 88 can still be pushed. Under your conditions this super easy shove.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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I can't see it being a good idea to fold to a reraise after comitting roughly 1/3 of my stack.

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If you weren't going to get away from the hand, why not just push all-in in the first place? Note: I've made this same play myself, with similar results.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

Didn't read any replies, but yes you played this bad, you should be open shoving all in. You people that have this survival strategy are playing bad poker, if you don't have a stack you need to get one, 88 is good shove.

Re: Possible dilemma in the late stages
 

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Could you give a little explanation of why the open shove is preferrable over what I did? I have never really understood it I guess. I seem to be in the minority, but I almost always choose to make a normal raise and then shove the flop if my stack allows.

[/ QUOTE ]Wade, I have the same problem that you do, particularly when I have a HUGE hand. However, it comes down to putting yourself in the best position possible considering all potential circumstances that could play out, and open shoving does this.
I've learned from experience playing some small stakes NL cash games the trouble that you can get into by not playing this way.