AA waits till turn
 

UTG+1 is very bad. Sometimes with spastic aggression and sometimes he's passive. He could almost have ATC here.
BB is a 35/20/2. I havent seen him do anything stupid but he doesnt seem that good.
What do you guys think of this line?

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.6SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, HERO calls plannning on raising a non spade, non 4/5, turn.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

I wouldnt trust these guys to bet the turn. Many cards can come to freeze them or you up. If this was a drier flop with one or two broadway cards, I'd like your plan better. As it is, you are pratically guaranteed 2 more SBs if you raise now.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

yeah, I raise while I can. Having utg+1 trapped here is great. utg may not bet the turn and if he does utg+1 may fold. Not to mention that if turn is a spade (which it will be 20% of the time) then you're just calling all the way to the river with a great hand.

I feel like some kind of cliche is appropriate here, like: "a fish in the hand is worth two in the river," or maybe "raise ye pots while ye may."

Re: AA waits till turn
 

damn it. that was my addict post. I can't believe I couldn't come up with anything better for my freaking 400th post. Those weren't even good cliches.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

think about what BB would donk and act accordingly. I wouldn't be to happy about my hand here against a decent player. Twopair, straight, SD, FD and sets is in his range. If I raise it's because I hope BB reraises and pushes UTG+1 out of the pot. But I would just call flop and reevaluate turn. I don't think I'll raise anywhere in this hand if the board doesn't pair or if I hit a set.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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think about what BB would donk and act accordingly. I wouldn't be to happy about my hand here against a decent player. Twopair, straight, SD, FD and sets is in his range. If I raise it's because I hope BB reraises and pushes UTG+1 out of the pot. But I would just call flop and reevaluate turn. I don't think I'll raise anywhere in this hand if the board doesn't pair or if I hit a set.

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Running bad? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AA waits till turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
think about what BB would donk and act accordingly. I wouldn't be to happy about my hand here against a decent player. Twopair, straight, SD, FD and sets is in his range. If I raise it's because I hope BB reraises and pushes UTG+1 out of the pot. But I would just call flop and reevaluate turn. I don't think I'll raise anywhere in this hand if the board doesn't pair or if I hit a set.

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wow, really? do others agree with this?

Re: AA waits till turn
 

raise now, this is some smallish pair/draw alot that will freeze up to about half the deck on the turn.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

You make good points and my default is definitely to raise the flop. But my reasoning was like this: I expect BB to bet again on a lot of turn cards. Maybe not a spade 4 or 5 unless he hit a draw. I'm not worried about UTG+1. BB's range is a lot of one pair hands, straight draws (including gutshots) and flush draws - of course there's sets and two pair as well (I discount these a bit because he didn't go for the CR on the drawy board to force out UTG+1).
Against this range my equity changes dramatically on the turn, so when a non scare card falls (almost every scare card for my opponent is a scare card for me too) and BB leads out I get to raise two players with the improved equity. If a scare card hits and he still bets I can call down now that my equity is even lower still.

I think this is a reasonable thought process but is my logic flawed anywhere? Or is it just better to get the bets in now?

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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think about what BB would donk and act accordingly. I wouldn't be to happy about my hand here against a decent player. Twopair, straight, SD, FD and sets is in his range. If I raise it's because I hope BB reraises and pushes UTG+1 out of the pot. But I would just call flop and reevaluate turn. I don't think I'll raise anywhere in this hand if the board doesn't pair or if I hit a set.

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wow, really? do others agree with this?

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Definitely not. I have the best hand an overwhelming amount of the time. I think my dillemma is whether to get bets in on the flop or on most turn cards.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment. Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot. If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw. Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment. Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot. If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw. Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

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Dude, I have the nuts until some of them proofs otherwise (e.g. puts in a lot of action) - I'm raising somewhere.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment.

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?!!? dude, this isnt omaha, best hand=value

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Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot.

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this is a good thing
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If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw.

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo

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Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

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exaclty, thats why u get ur value now with the best of it

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Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

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those are mostly legit considerations, but we pass up hella value by not getting a raise in somewhere, and the best place is on the flop

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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?!!? dude, this isnt omaha, best hand=value

[/ QUOTE ] You need more than 33% equity to raise for value and the combination of draws and made hands villains can have makes our equity lower than 33% in this situation. If OP is right that UTG+1 can have ATC I would estimate our equity to about 25-30% on the flop.

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this is a good thing

[/ QUOTE ] With a single pair playing one or two opponent is a huge difference. The risk of losing the hand is much greater against two than one opponent. You're gonna win more if your hand holds up against two opponents but your aces will get crushed more often against two opponent. If you had a set you're right that we want him to stay, but we only have an overpair that any small 2-pair can beat.

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo

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If he don't thats not bad, that probably indicates that his hand is not very strong or that he donked a draw. Now we can act according to that information.

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exaclty, thats why u get ur value now with the best of it


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If we had more than 33% equity yes, but against a decent player in BB and ATC in UTG+1 we don't.

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those are mostly legit considerations, but we pass up hella value by not getting a raise in somewhere, and the best place is on the flop

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That depends on villains donking range and if we have indications that villain likes to donk weak hands we could have equity enough to raise, but against two players that both put money in on the flop your aces are not as big favourite as you would like to think. If the action was bet-fold or check-bet it's a different story...

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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You need more than 33% equity to raise for value and the combination of draws and made hands villains can have makes our equity lower than 33% in this situation. If OP is right that UTG+1 can have ATC I would estimate our equity to about 25-30% on the flop.

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this is wrong and everything you've said is based on this faulty assumption. put some ranges into stove if you dont believe me.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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this is wrong and everything you've said is based on this faulty assumption. put some ranges into stove if you dont believe me.

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You should be careful with stating whats wrong or right in a hand analyzis. You don't know villains donking range and I don't claim to knów it either. If he's a good player he should have something since it's a good spot to donk a set or twopair and a terrible spot to donk top or middle pair. In my posts I have said that I assume he's a decent player and therefor I rule out hands like MP,BP and air.

This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

Re: AA waits till turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

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yep, fairly high, even if we are always only up against flush draws, oesd, and pairs+... if we add in all the gutters, unimproved overs, Axo hands, our equity gets much higher, which is more realistic imo... UTG+1 will also be peeling (and calling a raise) on the flop with a lot of hands that are drawing dead/almost dead against us.. those same hands wont put any money in on the turn most of the time.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

I just ran a poker stove where i gave UTG+1 ATC and BB all the reasonable hands that would connect moderate to good with this flop,(i.e. A7, pocket pairs 33-99 and all the low connectors that would now have two pair, pair+gut) and we have a 51.2% equity. This assumes he would slowplay a straight, adding a flopped straight into the mix changes our equity to 42.3%, still good enough to raise if UTG+1 literally has ATC(which is probably not the case). So I believe that the answer as to whether you should raise the flop depends on what you think the BB's range is, if it includes all hands that connected well with the flop wait until the turn and re-evalutate based on the action. If it is skewed more towards hands that connected moderately, i.e he is betting all one pairs, two pairs, and draws and slow playing monsters(sets and straights) then a raise is definitely in order. Put another way, since you can't eliminate UTG+1 with a raise and you can't reasonably put him on a hand use the BB's betting range as a guide for your actions.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

Not waiting 'til the turn here would require special read/history for me.

Another consideration is future hands. You'll usually have wiffed this flop and will be peeling with overs/backdoor draws. If you pump it on the flop everytime you have an overpair your flop action gives your hand away. Against observant players this results in being outplayed in future spots like this. There are two ways around this:
1) Raise the flop with overs sometimes
2) Wait for the turn with overpairs

In my experience 1) results in being called down and losing a lot.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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Not waiting 'til the turn here would require special read/history for me.

Another consideration is future hands. You'll usually have wiffed this flop and will be peeling with overs/backdoor draws. If you pump it on the flop everytime you have an overpair your flop action gives your hand away. Against observant players this results in being outplayed in future spots like this. There are two ways around this:
1) Raise the flop with overs sometimes
2) Wait for the turn with overpairs

In my experience 1) results in being called down and losing a lot.

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The more I think about this hand the more I really hate a raise on the flop. It's like telling you opponents: hey I have an overpair and now that you all know you can play accordingly and charge me maximum if you beat me and get away cheaply if you don't. If you're the kind of player that would raise AQ on this flop you can raise an overpair and still get action but if you usually peel this flop with overs then a raise gives your hand away completely.

Raising on the turn makes it harder for villains to read you hand since they may think the turncard helped you. But if you call flop and it goes bet-call on the turn and the turn card connects with the flop you should probably not raise.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo


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If he don't thats not bad, that probably indicates that his hand is not very strong or that he donked a draw. Now we can act according to that information.


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IMO its quite bad

This is a flop raise for me because when I call and a K comes of they check, I bet and one of them folds. I want to get value now on the flop while I can


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It's like telling you opponents: hey I have an overpair and now that you all know you can play accordingly and charge me maximum if you beat me and get away cheaply if you don't.

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They cant know I have an overpair cuz I would also raise any fd, A7, K7, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 98dd, T8dd, T9dd 33, 66, 77, 54s. So if they try handreading they will realize that overpairs is only a fraction of my hands. If not its great for me when I have those other hands.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

I don't agree with Gurravasa's arguments either. But I wish you would dissect my comment instead of his. Personally I think that BB's range consist mainly of draws and one pair hands together with some strong hands that maybe must be discounted a bit. Furthermore I expect him to bet a good amount of the time on the turn. I maybe leaning towards a flop raise too, especially if you could convince me/disprove this:

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You make good points and my default is definitely to raise the flop. But my reasoning was like this: I expect BB to bet again on a lot of turn cards. Maybe not a spade 4 or 5 unless he hit a draw. I'm not worried about UTG+1. BB's range is a lot of one pair hands, straight draws (including gutshots) and flush draws - of course there's sets and two pair as well (I discount these a bit because he didn't go for the CR on the drawy board to force out UTG+1).
Against this range my equity changes dramatically on the turn, so when a non scare card falls (almost every scare card for my opponent is a scare card for me too) and BB leads out I get to raise two players with the improved equity. If a scare card hits and he still bets I can call down now that my equity is even lower still.

I think this is a reasonable thought process but is my logic flawed anywhere? Or is it just better to get the bets in now?

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Re: AA waits till turn
 

Because his range is so wide here I disagree a bit on the "my equity changes dramatically on the turn".

I think this is much more of a point when either villains range is skewed more towards fds or when the pot is 4, 5 or 6 way where it is more likely that someone has a fd.

IMO this hand is pretty simple. You jam now while you can and while the third guy is in. All this waiting to turn stuff seems very FPS like to me.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

raising a 7turn is meh also, and it doesnt really matter if a KQJ comes on the turn villian might slowdown already to that overcard so I agree with jamming it now while you can

Re: AA waits till turn
 

Raise now for value.

Putting SB on either a big hand or a big draw is silly. People donk all sorts of crap cause they think it's tricky. UTG+1's range is ATC. Because of how wide both their ranges are your equity is much higher than 33%.

Lots of turns will freeze the action (either for you or for them) so get the value now while you can.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

Thanks guys. I think you're right.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

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yes but they will both almost certainly call another turn bet, its not protecting our hand, just juicing up the pot for the turn

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

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yes but they will both almost certainly call another turn bet, its not protecting our hand, just juicing up the pot for the turn

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- The pot is medium sized, so I think you should be more interested in betting for value than for protection.
- No amount of bets will protect you from good draws (they always have the odds to call). So just charge them the max while you're pretty sure your equity is good.
- If juicing the pot now induces villain to make a bad call on the turn with a 2,3,4 or 5 outer then that's fine.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

Your opponents don't know you have AA. I would raise, as there are many cards on the turn that will dissuade BB from betting again. Even if utg+1 folded the flop, I wouldn't wait for the turn. But since he called, get the money in while it's hot. You can't guarantee a turn bet from BB nor a call from the hijack.

Re: AA waits till turn
 

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I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

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yes but they will both almost certainly call another turn bet, its not protecting our hand, just juicing up the pot for the turn

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who ever said I was protecting my hand (although I can be against 2-5 outers)? I'm raising for pure value.