Two Plus Two Newer Archives - Worst downswing ever?

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Worst downswing ever?

I'm smack in the middle of mine. I play 2-4 to 10-20PLO. Nothing is worse than running bad at PLO. What's the most anyone has lost on a downswing and how long before it started to come around again for the good?

Re: Worst downswing ever?

27 buyins is my current record.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
27 buyins is my current record.

[/ QUOTE ]

What limits u play and how lon before u made those 27 back or did you?

Re: Worst downswing ever?

~20 buy-ins at 1-2 and 2-4, but i recovered pretty fast after taking a short hiatus. with the current state of 6-max plo games, i pretty much expect to have at least one 10+bi downswing every month.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
What limits u play and how lon before u made those 27 back or did you?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was at mostly 1/2 and some .5/1.

Still working my way back but getting very close.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

-10bi in one day.

So I just moved up, thats only 5bi one level higher!!!

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
i pretty much expect to have at least one 10+bi downswing every month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Worst downswing ever?

14 days into this month I was 21 buy ins at my usual stakes. The real XXXX salad part about it was, I was going to start moving up this month! So, I'm still grinding it out at 75% 1/2 and 25% .50/1. Still stuck for the month, but not after rakeback! =)

By the way Scoot, I love you BR management! I think I'll try that.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

Mine is actually about 8 BI, people talking about 27 buy ins scare the crap out of me.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I had a 15 BI downswing at 0.50/1 in early September and this kind of put me off Omaha for a bit. Fortunately it came after a 20 BI heater, although I'd taken a bunch of the money out as profit already.

Just remember bankroll management, and if you're below 20 BIs, drop down a level.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

i´ve managed to lose 5-8 buy-ins at one single table several time. i wouldn´t call it a downswing though as there was a lot of tilt involved.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

Mine's about 40 buy-ins, but that's because I really left it affect my play. I took some time off after that and started playing a lot tighter preflop and I had no trouble getting it back.

When I was actually playing reasonably well, my worst downswing was 27 buy-ins. Not that I was 100% optimal on every decision, but I was playing fairly well at least. That came in the middle of what would have been a 32K hand breakeven stretch if I'd just waited for it to end, but I didn't. I kept chasing my losses to manufacture profits instead and ended up busting my account at about the 28K mark.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
i´ve managed to lose 5-8 buy-ins at one single table playing heads up several times

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
A cool million

[/ QUOTE ]

u lost a million?? OMG that has to be devasting. Or are you being sarcastic?

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
Just remember bankroll management, and if you're below 20 BIs, drop down a level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume this is a weak attempt at leveling? Scoot has it figured out, IMO, move up and yuo are only down half as much! Don't be a nit!

Re: Worst downswing ever?

20.

my biggest upswing is 5, btw

Re: Worst downswing ever?

meh, probably somewhere in the 20-30 range, playing 25/50..

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
with the current state of 6-max plo games, i pretty much expect to have at least one 10+bi downswing every month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pete,

Can you (or anyone else) expand on this point? What is it about the current state of the game that would lead to at least one 10BI downswing/month? How is this different from the previous state of the game? Would you not expect the same variance in the prior state?

Thanks.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

around 40 buy ins, but I think i let the downswing affect my play. Still working on getting it back.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I've had two -15+ BI days in the last three weeks. I've also had four +15 or more BI days in the same period.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
I've had two -15+ BI days in the last three weeks. I've also had four +15 or more BI days in the same period.

[/ QUOTE ]

graph plz [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I'm just coming off a 37 buyin downswing. Or, at least I think I'm coming off it.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I have a question. When you guys are on these horrible downswings, are they primarily from outrageous and constant outdraws?

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
with the current state of 6-max plo games, i pretty much expect to have at least one 10+bi downswing every month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pete,

Can you (or anyone else) expand on this point? What is it about the current state of the game that would lead to at least one 10BI downswing/month? How is this different from the previous state of the game? Would you not expect the same variance in the prior state?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

people play better and raise more preflop, so the winrate/sd of a good player is fairly low compared to the past.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. When you guys are on these horrible downswings, are they primarily from outrageous and constant outdraws?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure that noone knows the exact answer but it would be good to hear what ppl think.

With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable.

If I took all my downswing periods I would guess that at least 50% of the time it was due to my own play/decisions. I would also like to think that this is an area that I've improved at through more short term game analysis with Pokertracker and PokerEV.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I don't think of particular downswings that much, but the most i've lost in a session is 17bi, and the longest breakeven stretches I've had have been in the 40k hands range. I, for one, don't experience a 10bi downswing every month (maybe every 3 months?) but then I also don't put in the sheer volume that some players do.

This year, I don't think I've had worse then 14bi down.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]

With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know enough about PokerEV to say definitively, but from my own usage of it, I don't know that it'll ever be able to tell the whole story. For example, there will be times where you have top set and correctly bet the flop and turn, only to payoff a bet on the river when an unlikely backdoor draw comes in. The software will list it as losing Sklanksy bucks, but it's not like the hand was played incorrectly.

Ultimately, I think protracted downswings are caused by a bunch of factors that all sort of play off of each other: 1) loss of confidence and a bad mental state; 2) not hitting enough flops to justify putting any significant amount in; 3) the times you do hit, no one else does, so you only win a smallish pot; 4) losing more than your share of coinflip situations; and 5) continually running into the fat end of your opponents' ranges (i.e. coolers).

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know enough about PokerEV to say definitively, but from my own usage of it, I don't know that it'll ever be able to tell the whole story. For example, there will be times where you have top set and correctly bet the flop and turn, only to payoff a bet on the river when an unlikely backdoor draw comes in. The software will list it as losing Sklanksy bucks, but it's not like the hand was played incorrectly.

Ultimately, I think protracted downswings are caused by a bunch of factors that all sort of play off of each other: 1) loss of confidence and a bad mental state; 2) not hitting enough flops to justify putting any significant amount in; 3) the times you do hit, no one else does, so you only win a smallish pot; 4) losing more than your share of coinflip situations; and 5) continually running into the fat end of your opponents' ranges (i.e. coolers).

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't tell the whole story, but I think it helps keep you from starting to running down the road of playing bad if you are getting all-in lucky.

Also, if you run into the bad end of your opponent's range it is often hard to figure if you really are running into the bad range or perhaps your rangefinder is offkilter.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]

It doesn't tell the whole story, but I think it helps keep you from starting to running down the road of playing bad if you are getting all-in lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I didn't mean to imply that it's useless; just that I don't think it's meant to be the final word, so to speak. The all-in luck tab with the net run (whatever the one line graph is) is - to me - very useful.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you run into the bad end of your opponent's range it is often hard to figure if you really are running into the bad range or perhaps your rangefinder is offkilter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also very valid. To expound: it still comes down to building a hand range based on what you know about the other guy. If you know the other guy will try and move you off boards that don't seem to fit the action, or the person will play draws (and not just monster draws) very aggressively, there's nothing you can do when you run into the time they have top set. But, if you're against an unknown, I think the natural inclination is to give them a range you want them to have, rather than a more reasonable range. I think this just gets exacerbated when you're in a downswing.

Hopefully that makes more sense than my initial post.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

Your post makes sense and I agree with everything you said.

Additionally I would like to add... what I find about hand ranges is that it is really easy to put your opponent on a wide range. Then with more info (say on the turn your opponent re-raises you..and you have never seen this before) you push allin with your initial read and then tell yourself that you got "coolered" or unlucky. You did get a bit unlucky perhaps, but what I find often is that it's easy to not be honest about what exactly happened in the hand on each street.

PokerEV/tracker are also nice in this respect with the hand replayer, where you can easily analyze each street objectively (after the session or the next day).

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. When you guys are on these horrible downswings, are they primarily from outrageous and constant outdraws?

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt about it they are. Combined with getting it all in with 18 outs over and over and missing every one over and over. While on the other hand a guy is all in and hits his one unshared dangler for a 3 buy-in pot to put you on super tilt= recipe for disaster.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

Wow, you guys are some peddlers. Standard bad day for me is at least 10 buyins.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
While on the other hand a guy is all in and hits his one unshared dangler for a 3 buy-in pot to put you on super tilt= recipe for disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

The very interesting thing about my 27 bi downswing is that on the back side of it I think that tilt was not, is not, nor will be a significant part of any future downswing ever again. I guess that is one of the positive negatives that can come out of a huge downswing when you are ready to deal with it.

Re: Worst downswing ever?

I have never had >10 buyin downswing but that is prob because I play in small games that are very passive

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, you guys are some peddlers. Standard bad day for me is at least 10 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant [censored] believe how many nut peddlers are in the 1/2PLO games. I cant play anything less than 2/4 because all there is is nutpeddlers. The higher u go in limits the more likely u are to find people wiith some stones willing to get it in on a draw

Re: Worst downswing ever?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, you guys are some peddlers. Standard bad day for me is at least 10 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant [censored] believe how many nut peddlers are in the 1/2PLO games. I cant play anything less than 2/4 because all there is is nutpeddlers. The higher u go in limits the more likely u are to find people wiith some stones willing to get it in on a draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me about it. Check this out - action in the space of 15 hands/20 minutes (apologies for no hand conversion, I couldn't get it to work):

PokerStars Game #13408302492: Omaha Pot Limit ($3/$6) - 2007/11/22 - 22:03:21 (ET) Table 'Irus' 9-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: **Tycoon** ($531.40 in chips) Seat 2: 1Do2Den007 ($1302.15 in chips) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ ($302.80 in chips) Seat 4: alexia18 ($1453.30 in chips) Seat 5: OO-Nasty ($379 in chips) Seat 6: diebitter ($186.65 in chips) Seat 7: Sodom ($88.80 in chips) Seat 8: mnbvcxy ($738.70 in chips) Seat 9: Stud ($243 in chips)
NOXQZEZ: posts small blind $3
alexia18: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to diebitter [Jd 5s Qh Ah]
OO-Nasty: calls $6
diebitter: calls $6
Sodom: folds
mnbvcxy: folds
Stud: folds
**Tycoon**: calls $6
1Do2Den007: folds
NOXQZEZ: calls $3
alexia18: checks
*** FLOP *** [5h 2c 9h]
NOXQZEZ: checks
alexia18: checks
OO-Nasty: checks
diebitter: bets $28.50
**Tycoon**: folds
NOXQZEZ: folds
alexia18: calls $28.50
OO-Nasty: folds
*** TURN *** [5h 2c 9h] [Ad]
alexia18: checks
1Do2Den007 is sitting out
diebitter: bets $84
alexia18: calls $84
*** RIVER *** [5h 2c 9h Ad] [6h]
1Do2Den007 leaves the table
alexia18: bets $252
diebitter: calls $68.15 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
alexia18: shows [3h Ac Jh 3c] (a flush, Jack high)
diebitter: shows [Jd 5s Qh Ah] (a flush, Ace high) diebitter collected $388.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $391.30 | Rake $3
Board [5h 2c 9h Ad 6h]
Seat 1: **Tycoon** folded on the Flop
Seat 2: 1Do2Den007 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ (small blind) folded on the Flop Seat 4: alexia18 (big blind) showed [3h Ac Jh 3c] and lost with a flush, Jack high Seat 5: OO-Nasty folded on the Flop Seat 6: diebitter showed [Jd 5s Qh Ah] and won ($388.30) with a flush, Ace high Seat 7: Sodom folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: mnbvcxy folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: Stud folded before Flop (didn't bet)

========================

PokerStars Game #13408325420: Omaha Pot Limit ($3/$6) - 2007/11/22 - 22:04:45 (ET) Table 'Irus' 9-max Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: **Tycoon** ($525.40 in chips) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ ($296.80 in chips) Seat 4: alexia18 ($1266.65 in chips) Seat 5: OO-Nasty ($373 in chips) Seat 6: diebitter ($388.30 in chips) Seat 7: Sodom ($88.80 in chips) Seat 8: mnbvcxy ($738.70 in chips) Seat 9: Stud ($243 in chips)
alexia18: posts small blind $3
nutsbabys joins the table at seat #2
OO-Nasty: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to diebitter [5d Qd Ts Jd]
diebitter: calls $6
Sodom: calls $6
mnbvcxy: folds
Stud: calls $6
**Tycoon**: folds
NOXQZEZ: folds
alexia18: calls $3
OO-Nasty: checks
*** FLOP *** [8h Tc 9h]
alexia18: checks
OO-Nasty: checks
diebitter: bets $28.50
Sodom: raises $54.30 to $82.80 and is all-in
Stud: raises $154.20 to $237 and is all-in
alexia18: folds
OO-Nasty: folds
diebitter: calls $208.50
*** TURN *** [8h Tc 9h] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [8h Tc 9h 2c] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
diebitter: shows [5d Qd Ts Jd] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
Stud: shows [Jc Kd Qc Kh] (a straight, Eight to Queen) diebitter collected $154.20 from side pot Stud collected $154.20 from side pot
Sodom: mucks hand
diebitter collected $137.70 from main pot Stud collected $137.70 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $586.80 Main pot $275.40. Side pot $308.40. | Rake $3 Board [8h Tc 9h 2c 8d] Seat 1: **Tycoon** folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: alexia18 (small blind) folded on the Flop Seat 5: OO-Nasty (big blind) folded on the Flop Seat 6: diebitter showed [5d Qd Ts Jd] and won ($291.90) with a straight, Eight to Queen Seat 7: Sodom mucked [9c Ac Qh Th] Seat 8: mnbvcxy folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: Stud showed [Jc Kd Qc Kh] and won ($291.90) with a straight, Eight to Queen

------------------------------

PokerStars Game #13408462539: Omaha Pot Limit ($3/$6) - 2007/11/22 - 22:13:02 (ET) Table 'Irus' 9-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: **Tycoon** ($552.40 in chips) Seat 2: nutsbabys ($444 in chips) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ ($278.80 in chips) Seat 4: alexia18 ($1139.15 in chips) Seat 5: OO-Nasty ($391.15 in chips) Seat 6: diebitter ($407.20 in chips) Seat 7: AABassMaster ($172.20 in chips) Seat 9: ckl555 ($150 in chips)
NOXQZEZ: posts small blind $3
alexia18: posts big blind $6
ckl555: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to diebitter [2h 5d 9c 5c]
OO-Nasty: folds
diebitter: calls $6
AABassMaster: folds
ckl555: checks
**Tycoon**: raises $18 to $24
nutsbabys: folds
NOXQZEZ: folds
alexia18: calls $18
diebitter: calls $18
ckl555: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 5h Th]
alexia18: checks
diebitter: bets $78
**Tycoon**: folds
alexia18: calls $78
*** TURN *** [8d 5h Th] [Kd]
alexia18: checks
diebitter: bets $234
alexia18: calls $234
*** RIVER *** [8d 5h Th Kd] [Jd]
alexia18: bets $702
diebitter: calls $71.20 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
alexia18: shows [3c Jh 2s Kh] (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
diebitter: shows [2h 5d 9c 5c] (three of a kind, Fives) diebitter collected $844.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $847.40 | Rake $3
Board [8d 5h Th Kd Jd]
Seat 1: **Tycoon** folded on the Flop
Seat 2: nutsbabys (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: alexia18 (big blind) showed [3c Jh 2s Kh] and lost with two pair, Kings and Jacks Seat 5: OO-Nasty folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: diebitter showed [2h 5d 9c 5c] and won ($844.40) with three of a kind, Fives Seat 7: AABassMaster folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: ckl555 folded before Flop

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PokerStars Game #13408582922: Omaha Pot Limit ($3/$6) - 2007/11/22 - 22:20:21 (ET) Table 'Irus' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: **Tycoon** ($504.45 in chips) Seat 2: nutsbabys ($438 in chips) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ ($269.80 in chips) Seat 4: alexia18 ($874.10 in chips) Seat 5: OO-Nasty ($313.40 in chips) Seat 6: diebitter ($832.40 in chips) Seat 7: AABassMaster ($46.15 in chips) Seat 9: ckl555 ($243.10 in chips)
ckl555: posts small blind $3
**Tycoon**: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to diebitter [Kd Kh Ah Qd]
nutsbabys: folds
NOXQZEZ: folds
alexia18: calls $6
OO-Nasty: folds
diebitter: raises $21 to $27
AABassMaster: folds
ckl555: raises $66 to $93
**Tycoon**: folds
alexia18: calls $87
diebitter: calls $66
*** FLOP *** [Ks 6d 9s]
ckl555: bets $150.10 and is all-in
alexia18: calls $150.10
diebitter: raises $589.30 to $739.40 and is all-in
alexia18: calls $589.30
*** TURN *** [Ks 6d 9s] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 6d 9s 5s] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
alexia18: shows [Jc Td 5c Qc] (a pair of Fives)
diebitter: shows [Kd Kh Ah Qd] (three of a kind, Kings) diebitter collected $1178.60 from side pot
ckl555: mucks hand
diebitter collected $732.30 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1913.90 Main pot $732.30. Side pot $1178.60. | Rake $3 Board [Ks 6d 9s 5s 3c] Seat 1: **Tycoon** (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: nutsbabys folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: NOXQZEZ folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: alexia18 showed [Jc Td 5c Qc] and lost with a pair of Fives Seat 5: OO-Nasty folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: diebitter showed [Kd Kh Ah Qd] and won ($1910.90) with three of a kind, Kings Seat 7: AABassMaster (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: ckl555 (small blind) mucked [Ac Ad 7h 9h]

Re: Worst downswing ever?