Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I guess I'm a lot worse then I thought, or I ran freakishly bad. (Probably both) I was a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100 for about 3-4 months over about 30-35khands. (wasn't able to play as much as I wanted)

I went on a bad run at the end of my NL100 days and took a long break and cashed out most of my roll, I was rolled for NL50 but decided to move down to NL25 and fix my leaks, I considered myself a winning player but knew I had tons to learn so I figured why not just play NL25 and fix my leaks.

Only to be down $600 on FTP at NL25 (25-26BI) over 7k hands (-19PTBB/100) (half of my roll after cashing out) and basically demoralized myself completely in online poker. I am still a consistent winner @ live poker over the last 2-3 years winning 5-6k at 25, 50 and 100NL.

I am cashing out my final $550 and going to stick to live play for quite a while I think, and probably wait around until Party.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

obv increase leaks at higher stakes

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

nl25 is harder than nl100 on ftp, but 26 bi downswing, lol

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Obviously not a downswing. Just you sucking at poker.
[ ] swongs are one thing

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously not a downswing. Just you sucking at poker.
[ ] swongs are one thing

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres no way this isnt a downswing, even if I was a pretty bad player, being -16PTBB/100 or whatever I am over 7k hands is just absurd, theres no way this isnt way below standard variance even if I am a losing player.
I play 25/20/3.5 with W$SD of 45%.

But thanks for the awesome response? I'm assuming your grinding out NL25 or NL50?

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

In BBV, we dont move down to fix leaks, we move up to chase losses. What you waiting for?
[x] choo choo

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Desperately thinking about it. We'll see how steamed I remain.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

you clearly suck

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100 for about 3-4 months over about 30-35khands.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, but do you have a track record which is actually strong evidence that you are a winning player at some level?

For a fixed interval of 32k hands, 0 is close to the edge of your 95% confidence interval if your observed result is 5-6 PTBB/100. It depends on your standard deviation/100. After n*100 hands, your 95% confidence interval is roughly observed +- 2 (SD per 100)/sqrt(n).

However, this wasn't your complete record. You also went on a downswing at NL 100 afterwards. You can't just pick your winning stretches, and declare that those represent your true win rate. A breakeven player or marginal loser is very likely to be able to find some pretty long upswings.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I understand some of what your saying in terms of my Standard dev.
However, the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays).
I am not saying that this means I am a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100, I just think that given the fact that I was consistently winning (even if it was above my true winrate of my abilities) + given the fact that my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs.

FWIW
KK,QQ,AKo,AKs,AQs are all losers in these 7k hands.

Where as at NL100 AA/KK/QQ were easily my 3 biggest winners.

In my session tonight, I lost money with 2pair, trips, straights, and flushs.

(Lost 7BI)

In 500 hands I didnt win a single pot over 40BB.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

The luck line or sklansky bucks line being negative doesnt mean you're unlucky it means your putting the money in bad, ie you sook.

Of course this can be [censored] up by getting coolered eg QQ vs AA and all the money goes in on AQ3 board and such.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 25nl may be alot less effective?

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Lol OP, you're playing frick'n 25NL. 15 / 13 FTW my friend. It's not that hard.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 100nl may not be effective ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

move up where they respect your raises

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

So did you fix your leaks?

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays).

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player.

[ QUOTE ]

my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs.


[/ QUOTE ]
That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad.

However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I'm almost certain I'm a lifetime loser at 25NL

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certain I'm a lifetime loser at 25NL

[/ QUOTE ]

There is obv some big leak of mine but I have always done better at SSNL then MSNL (live and online). The problem was is that I didn't want to play underrolled and start at NL100 again.

I might just take part of my live roll and put it online to roll myself for NL100.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays).

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player.

[ QUOTE ]

my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs.


[/ QUOTE ]
That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad.

However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha I don't know if I wanted to save time [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
I do believe I was a winning NL100 player, maybe 6PTBB/100 was above my actual winrate but I believe I was still a winning player.
I have definitely ran bad in the last 7k hands but it can't be all that, and I know it isnt all that, but even if I was playing pretty bad, with my understanding of the game and perticipation on this forum over the last 2 years, etc. Being a -19PTBB/100 at NL25 is clearly some sort of bad run, weather this type of run will eventually happen to everyone, I am not firmiiar with stats enough to figure that out. (Although I am taking a stats class this semester with a horrid instructor so its hard to apply it to real life because she sucks at explaining anything, but I have a 100% average in the class !! ;D )

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So did you fix your leaks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the best part, besides my Matusow blowups where i'd push with TP3rdkicker or make some absurd hero call or get super annoyed im not hitting and call an allin from a 60/5 on a 567triple suit with AA, I was actually playing much better then I think I was at NL100. I was value betting thinner, getting away from trouble hands, playhing in position way more, 3betting lighter, squeezing more, not calling 3 bets as much with bad hands, especially OOP. Overall I really think I expanded my game but I got [censored] owned. I could just be playing a totally wrong style for NL25 but to be honest I was playing pretty ABC.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Time to update your Location?

[ QUOTE ]

Loc: 5buyin swings.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Maybe it's just me picking my spots poorly (or sucking), but thin value bets and light 3bets are something I've gotten badly pwnt doing at NL25. I've had much better results at NL25 by playing more weak-tight without firm reads on opponents being very tight. Fold equity is so goddamn low it's amazing, and fish play so passively with monster hands I never really know where the hell I stand.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I don't think much of my losses have resulted from light 3bets, but stakes like NL25 would probably be a good place to value bet thin IMO because you will be looked up light.

aka bluffing a lot at NL25 is suicide.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Time to update your Location?

[ QUOTE ]

Loc: 5buyin swings.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Done [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]