Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

The past 2 days (about 6K hands) I've been raised almost every time I c-bet with nothing and force folds when I c-bet with a hand. It sucks to keep getting check raised and re-raised by players with like 0.5 aggression. It sucks when they are hitting 2/3 of their flops instead of 1/3 and are 2:1 to hit their set instead of 7.5:1, etc. etc. Sorry for the rant.

What is a typical downswing for 50NL on FTP and what is a typical number of hands to break even for?

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Downswings can be pretty bad...

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Any good estimates?

10 buyins? 15 buyins? More?

Break even for 10K hands? 20K hands?

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

12 buy ins my worst.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

That's so gross. The players just donk away with their 1st level thinking, limp and call out of position all day, and we can still lose 12+ buyins to them.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

12-15 buyins will happen. I usually have at least two 6-8 BI downswings per month. It usually starts with some coolers, then gets to full speed with some tilt, and doesn't end until the day 2 coolers are finished.

Forgot to add that I play about 60k hands per month at NL100/200, so maybe go by that?

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

most i've felt is 5 BU downswing at 25nl

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

lol, yeah. Tilt starts to ensue around 6-8. Once you hit 10 it's like popping your cherry imo. But I think 6-8 is the norm for nl50. Anything over that is usually tilt/playing bad. For me at least.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Well I've had a 42 buyin downswing in the $12 9-man SNGs after beating the game for a nice ROI over 3000+ SNGs. Weird [censored] can happen, even when you are playing well. It's scary to think that it's possible to go on such a massive downswing.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
12-15 buyins will happen. I usually have at least two 6-8 BI downswings per month. It usually starts with some coolers, then gets to full speed with some tilt, and doesn't end until the day 2 coolers are finished.

[/ QUOTE ]

LiftTilt summed it up perfectly. I do have to admit thought that nowadays I can take beats much better than I used to be able to. The swings are a really big part of the game, especially if you play lots of tables.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I just swear to god that my cards are face up. No one folds when I miss and no one ever has a hand when I hit. This needs to end.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just swear to god that my cards are face up. No one folds when I miss and no one ever has a hand when I hit. This needs to end.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't start unnecessarily slowplaying, that can be a common result of this mindset.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I am not a big fan of slowplaying, so I wouldn't worry about that.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

10-12 buy in downswings, anything over and you are playing bad.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I'll prove you wrong by playing well and going on a 18 buyin downswing. I am already at 6 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll prove you wrong by playing well and going on a 18 buyin downswing. I am already at 6 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are playing bad. I have been playing online poker for over 4 years and have never had a downswing bigger than 12 buy ins and trust me I run bad as [censored], see the november thread.

EDIT: I also play at 600nl/1000nl so in reality your downswings should be even less than 12 buyins because you are playing vs much worse players.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I'm just joking around. It doesn't seem possible to run this bad for much longer. I'll be outta this funk in no time.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

ive had 2 "major" downswings at 50nl

an 8BI

and an 11BI

i didnt think going 10+ was possible at FR...but never underestimate what running bad can rly do to u

(also, ima 5bb/100 winner at that game. So obviously smaller winners will encounter larger downswings and breakevens)

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I have had some 6 BI swings and had one this month. I at least get some satisfaction out of PokerEV when this happens. For instance, I am down 8 BIs of expected equity in All ins this month. I am not happy to lose out on about 1.5PTBB per 100 in equity, but am happy that I am still winning for the month despite running bad.

When the down swings come, try to stay focused on playing good poker. Don't start to see monsters or tilt. Easier said than done for me.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

If you can afford to, you might also consider taking a short break. It might clear your head of tilty thoughts to get away from the tables for a while. Or move down to build confidence/bankroll again, if that becomes a problem.

I've been up/down 4 buyins during a session only doing 4-tabling, so all it takes is for all of your coolers to come in a row. I can imagine that if you're playing 10+ tables, and hit a bad patch of variance, that you're going to see a pretty fast downswing. The upside should be that if you're playing well, the number of tables should keep that from happening very often. If you start to play badly, it's gonna hit you even faster, though.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I managed a 8 BI downswing at NL50 the day before yesterday in like 450 hands. This game can be sick. Obviously I started playing NL100 again like two hours later to chase losses and for some reasons really made some of the money back...

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Alex, thats a bankroll leak in the long term.

When Im on a downswing I like to -
- Move Down
- Study HH and PT in search of leaks.

I just hate the tought of ever going busto (even though my "roll" doesnt mean much to me in financial terms).

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

20k breakeven is pretty standard, but that doesn't mean you should just call it running bad if it happens. There is always something you can be doing better

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Hey SoundedSimple, it's good hear that you don't want me to screw up by BR but in fact I'm rolled for NL100 and played it regularly before moving to FT. I just did not move up "full time" so far cause I think NL50 at FT is very easy to beat and I wanted to make some more moneys first...
You're completely right though, moving up to chase losses is pretty dangerous.
Thanks again though for you caring, I really appreciate that.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
most i've felt is 5 BU downswing at 25nl

[/ QUOTE ]

Yesterday i had KK vs. AA pf twice, Set vs. flush and Set vs. Set on NL 25. In less than 1500 hands. 6-8 Buyins will definitely happen often enough.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey SoundedSimple, it's good hear that you don't want me to screw up by BR but in fact I'm rolled for NL100 and played it regularly before moving to FT. I just did not move up "full time" so far cause I think NL50 at FT is very easy to beat and I wanted to make some more moneys first...
You're completely right though, moving up to chase losses is pretty dangerous.
Thanks again though for you caring, I really appreciate that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Alex.
I really hope FT is soft since Im moving there as soon as I get my new PC running.

Fair point that your already a NL100 winner, just pointing out that this would be bad for anyone without the same experience as yourself.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

To OP -
Variance is sick, if you like equations you can read "Mathematics of Poker", you can work out variance in terms of standard deviation.

The thing is not to be too concerned. If you lose a few buyins move down (repeat this step as nessasary).

More importantly
- Read forums, post hands, do the maths, reveiw HHs.
Repeat as nessasary and variance will take care of itself.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
most i've felt is 5 BU downswing at 25nl

[/ QUOTE ]

Yesterday i had KK vs. AA pf twice, Set vs. flush and Set vs. Set on NL 25. In less than 1500 hands. 6-8 Buyins will definitely happen often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]I've never had a downswing of more than 5.5 at the $50 in ~165k hands. But see my location.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
most i've felt is 5 BU downswing at 25nl

[/ QUOTE ]

Yesterday i had KK vs. AA pf twice, Set vs. flush and Set vs. Set on NL 25. In less than 1500 hands. 6-8 Buyins will definitely happen often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]I've never had a downswing of more than 5.5 at the $50 in ~165k hands. But see my location.

[/ QUOTE ]

ehh....still a small sample size

also, i think ur "lucky" in that ur variance doesnt all come crashing down at once. thats how mine, and quite a few ppls, happen

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I think I'm lucky to. Every hand that goes by I wonder how really lucky though.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

I've been grinding 25NL since a withdrawl in August. Before that I played up to the 400NL tables...but usually the 50-100NL tables. I've got some experience.

That being said, I'm just treading water since mid-September. Lost about 16BI in a coupla weeks, build it back, lose some more.

Last night was a 'typical' down session for me. I was playing three tables and was card dead on all for the first hour. I usually show enough discipline to get through spots like this. At one point I think I went 140 hands without playing to the flop except when calling the BB. Card dead and down a BI or so.

Then I pick up a coupla good hands...but not good enough. Run into a cooler. Then another. End up the session down 3.5BI... playing well IMO.

String a three or four days together like this and you can get to 10-12BI downswings with ease.

The good news is that it can go the other way too. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

Downswongs are bad. They change your game drastically. Last 20k hands - break even. I hate it. It starts a week ago - very bad card run. It lasts about 2-3 days. Then this swong halves my AF, went from 6 to 3. I saw everywhere monsters! EVERYWHERE! Now still I have very big troubles to get my old agressive game back and its cause tilt to me. Today tilted 4 buy-ins because this [censored] downswong.

Re: Typical Swings at 50NL?
 

If you are playing well and not tilting, changing games, etc, it would not be unusual to have downswings of 6-8 buy-ins. The problem for me (and many others from what I can discern) is that rarely do people continue playing their “A” game when during a downswing. A typical pattern that leads to more significant losses might look like this:

1. Take a bad beat or two (or three)
2. Overplay a few hands trying to get it back
3. Run bad and get frustrated
4. Tilt, then tilt some more
5. Switch games and styles, i.e., go from FR to 6-Max and try to be a LAG or try some heads up
6. Batten down the hatches and think you have gotten your head together. Maybe even win back a few buy-ins
7. Take another bad beat or two
8. Go on major tilt until you finally right the ship

Doing this put me on a 16 buy-in downswing once. Fortunately I never violated my bankroll management practices (I was almost ready to move up so this put me back at the beginning of the level I was on but I was ready to drop down if necessary).

Long story short, downswings happen and are a natural part of the game. The real bankroll busters, however, are usually more a result of factors beyond the felt and have to do with how well you can control your emotions and stay off of tilt.