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-   -   Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=550972)

Courtesy Flush 11-20-2007 09:40 PM

Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
Should I be calling this bet? I used to but lately I don't seem to get paid off when the board pairs anyway and it's only 7 outs going to the turn. What do you guys do in these spots?

Bodog History for Hand #992892840
Omaha Pot Limit ($1.00/$2.00) - 2007-11-20 17:20:43
Table 'Paradise Creek' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: primemutton ($167.50)
Seat 2: Hero ($333.25)
Seat 3: danknugz11 ($183.50)
Seat 4: deadmoney627 ($315.00)
Seat 5: plasterblaster ($741.00)
Seat 6: mjacks ($273.63)
Seat 7: Cosmic Power ($376.00)
Seat 8: botek ($200.00)
Seat 9: ofus10 ($370.50)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
Hero: posts the small blind $1.00
danknugz11: posts the big blind $2.00

--- DEALING POCKETS
Hero is dealt [2h,Qc,Ks,Kc]
deadmoney627: folds
plasterblaster: calls $2.00
mjacks: raises $5.00 to $7.00
Cosmic Power: folds
botek: folds
ofus10: calls $7.00
primemutton: calls $7.00
Hero: calls $6.00
danknugz11: calls $5.00
plasterblaster: calls $5.00

--- DEALING FLOP [4d,7d,Kd] (Pot $42)
Hero: checks
danknugz11: checks
plasterblaster: checks
deadmoney627: has left the table
mjacks: bets $25.00
ofus10: folds
primemutton: folds
Hero???????????????????????????????????????????




And yes I'm obviously pissed because I folded, big stack with $741 called, turn paired the board and villain stackled off to a worse boat. OBVIOUSLY. Could have made like $630 that hand! Villain did have the nuts on the flop FWIW. 2.7-1 for a 5.5-1 draw. Actually worse if he or anyone else has a piece (which they certainly did). I'm OOP, seriously doubting anyone else is going to call behind me, and have no idea whether this guy will stack off to a board pair or not. ARE THE IMPLIED ODDS WORTH IT???

chucky 11-20-2007 09:53 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
Um villian bet less than 2/3 the pot as c-bet. This is not a auto fold. You should put this hand into BBV since you clearly show at the bottom that you don't want advice.

Courtesy Flush 11-20-2007 09:56 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
What do you mean I don't want advice? I want to know what you guys would do here.

I didn't say it was an autofold. I think it's questionable and possibly even bad, that's why I'm asking for opinions.

chucky 11-20-2007 10:09 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
If you want advice please remove the bottom of your original post which gives results and rant. I would probably call the flop bet because raising will only fold out hands that are way behind. Calling also protects your stack if someone raises the flop bet. In this case, because you will have 90% of stack left after flop, calling is also correct because you can play against villian on turn or river.

Rob121 11-20-2007 10:10 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
stacks are good for a call. with certain stacks and against certain villians id check raise.

chucky 11-20-2007 10:20 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
I will never check/raise top set on a flush flop with 6 players in the pot. Check/raising this flop more than maybe 3-way at most is ev- in my mind.

Rob121 11-20-2007 10:23 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
[ QUOTE ]
I will never check/raise top set on a flush flop with 6 players in the pot. Check/raising this flop more than maybe 3-way at most is ev- in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]
two people already folded flop but yeah i agree.

iggymcfly 11-20-2007 11:39 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
This is an auto-call. Villain barely bet half the pot and there's a chance someone will call behind with a worse set.

Courtesy Flush 11-21-2007 12:50 AM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
I don't get it iggy. If someone calls behind with a worse set then I only have 4 outs going to the turn. I'm gonna hit that about 1 in 11 times. Surely this can't be often enough, can it?

Courtesy Flush 11-25-2007 08:02 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
bump

Insistent_ 11-25-2007 09:43 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
This should be seen as random input more than advice since PLO is not my forte, but I think it is probable that the bettor will check behind on many turn cards, thus giving you better odds.

This is often how people play with non nut flushes.
He could also be betting two pair / worse trips
or just be straight out bluffing (maybe a bit unlikely though) since this is a very scary board to call.

So I think you probably have more like 7 x 1.5 = 10.5 outs in average.

iggymcfly 11-25-2007 10:12 PM

Re: Villain makes decent bet into 3 flush board and I have top set
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it iggy. If someone calls behind with a worse set then I only have 4 outs going to the turn. I'm gonna hit that about 1 in 11 times. Surely this can't be often enough, can it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it is because the type of player who's going to overcall with middle or bottom set is also the kind that will pay you off their whole stack when you hit. The implied odds are for their whole stack.

Also, this is kind of hard to explain, but if you're in a 5-way pot and you expect to get an overcall from a set 1/3 of the time, it doesn't really decrease your odds that much.

Since you're also getting information from the people that folded to the initial bet and the ones that checked in the first place. It's kind of like you have 4 outs of 30-something rather than the regular 4 out of 44. Also, when no one calls, your odds are better than 7/44. In addition to all that, there's a chance they'll call with a different flush and give you good odds on your draw without hurting the odds of you hitting a boat.


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