*** OFFICIAL Thanksgiving NFL Games (11/22) ***
 

GB @ Det
NYJ @ Dal
Ind @ Atl

I'm only making this thread because I haven't seen it and these games are only 2 days away.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

As of now I'm on Dallas -13.5 for 1.5 units.

It's hard for me to bet Indy after how bad they've been playin but it's also hard to take Atlanta since it's Atlanta. I'm also leaning towards the over on the GB/Det game right now.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I made a big teaser this week with Denver +12.5, Det. +16.5
Dallas -0.5 and Atl. +24.5. Thanksgiving games are usually close so I like getting a lot of points and of course Dallas wont lose. $140 to win $100

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Cool, I make one of your teaser bets every weekend and am 9-0 on them, however last week the saints covered +14 by one point, lol.

I am going to do one of your teaser with all three games and one total.
I love teasing Dallas to -1 and the over by 13 points, but I have no clue which way to go on Atlanta and Detroit.
Is Detroit +16.5 safer than GB +10? And I know Atl +24.5 is much safer than Indy +2, but I am still hesistant.

Im leaning Dal -1, over 34, Atl +24.5, and Green Bay +10. Betting 4k to win 2900.

GL.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I like Detroit +16.5 a lot more than GB +10. There's no way Detroit will lose by 17 or more points at home on Thanksgiving.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

also keep in mind atlanta lost by 24 points to Tampa Bay at home, so maybe atl isnt so safe either.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Nothing is safe.....safe = win

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Indy + 1.5/2 is a much better play than ATL +24.5.

They're not going to lose to ATL. As long as you get Indy + anything - it's a winner vs. ATL.

If you really feal strongly about taking ATL plus the points - I would wait and see if Harrington or Leftwich is starting - I would feel much better putting my money on ATL with Harrington starting.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like taking Indy plus 1.5/2 - they're not going to lose to ATL... as long as you get Indy + anything - it's a winner vs. ATL. If you really feal strongly about taking ATL plus the points - I would wait and see if Harrington or Leftwich is starting - I would feel much better putting my money on ATL with Harrington starting.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf I haven't seen the lines... surely ATL isn't favored.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Comments on the GB game.

As usual it looks like a steal with a 9-1 team getting the same spread as the lowly giants, so im concerned, but GB +10 looks as yummy as turkey.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like taking Indy plus 1.5/2 - they're not going to lose to ATL... as long as you get Indy + anything - it's a winner vs. ATL. If you really feal strongly about taking ATL plus the points - I would wait and see if Harrington or Leftwich is starting - I would feel much better putting my money on ATL with Harrington starting.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf I haven't seen the lines... surely ATL isn't favored.

[/ QUOTE ]

Found the line... lol why are you even talking about Indy being given points... my head hurts

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Semi off-topic...

is this the last year Detroit will appear on Thanksgiving?

Did they change that?

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like taking Indy plus 1.5/2 - they're not going to lose to ATL... as long as you get Indy + anything - it's a winner vs. ATL. If you really feal strongly about taking ATL plus the points - I would wait and see if Harrington or Leftwich is starting - I would feel much better putting my money on ATL with Harrington starting.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf I haven't seen the lines... surely ATL isn't favored.

[/ QUOTE ]

Discussing the better play in a 4 team 13 pt teaser - which way to go with the points.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

People do 13 point teasers?

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Yeah - I've done quite well this year playing 4 team 13 pts, and as it sounds, other have had success as well.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Comments on the GB game.

As usual it looks like a steal with a 9-1 team getting the same spread as the lowly giants, so im concerned, but GB +10 looks as yummy as turkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Detroit IS overrated, but they're getting the 3 AT home, and they don't match up that poorly with GB.

I really don't think GB is 7 points better than Detroit. If I bet, it'll be ON Detroit, but I may just lay off.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I got DET at +3.5.

YTD 26-12-1

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

This thread is making more stupid than I already am.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like Detroit +16.5 a lot more than GB +10. There's no way Detroit will lose by 17 or more points at home on Thanksgiving.

[/ QUOTE ]


I definitely think DET is capable of getting blown-out at home.
not saying that I think it will happen but it's definitely not impossible. GB can run up some points awfully fast.

I think there is a lesser chance that GB gets clobbered in this one so if I had to tease this one way or the other that is the direction I would go.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...

[/ QUOTE ]

First part = true
2nd part = common misconception - this has changed over the past 5 years since Ford Field opened -as has Favre's dome record overall. here are the last 5 games for GB AT Det.
02 W37-31
03 L14-22
04 W38-10
05 L03-17
06 W31-24

Favre 3-2 with 3 games over 30 points of offense does not equate to a 'tough time in the Detroit dome.

GL

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I personally feel that DET is extremely overrated - I would take GB + the points. However... a note of disclaimer - Favre has historically had a tough time in the DET dome...

[/ QUOTE ]

First part = true
2nd part = common misconception - this has changed over the past 5 years since Ford Field opened -as has Favre's dome record overall. here are the last 5 games for GB AT Det.
02 W37-31
03 L14-22
04 W38-10
05 L03-17
06 W31-24

Favre 3-2 with 3 games over 30 points of offense does not equate to a 'tough time in the Detroit dome.

GL

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for clarifying - I guess I was working off of old information.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Favre was HORRIBLE in domes for years. He has turned it around, but the announcers on tv haven't caught up with the record.

If you hear something said often enough, it's only natural to believe it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Borrowed from a poster at RX.

Favre Career Since 2002 in All Domes
SU 9-7 ATS 7-8-1

Before That
SU 8-22 ATS 10-20

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Favre is like the anti-Wakefield.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you hear something said often enough, it's only natural to believe it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

contrariwise, if you believe something strongly enough, it's only natural to repeat it often.

-c

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

My plays:

Record: 16-11-3 +6.84u
ATS: 10-5-3 +7.56u
Totals: 6-6-0 -0.72u

Colts -12.5 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This looks like such a donkey pick from all angles, and yet I don't care too much. DVOA has Indy as about a TD favorite in Atlanta here, and yet I'm taking Indy -12.5. Why? Atlanta has no redeeming qualities. They can't run, they can't pass, they can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass. DeAngelo Hall may be able to keep Reggie Wayne more in check than most, but with Clark getting another week to recover and the rest of Indy's WRs hopefully getting on the same page as Manning, I expect Indy to finally get their offense rolling and win big.

Colts/Falcons U42
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This line isn't nearly as juicy as the Chiefs line last week, but I still don't think we can expect Atlanta to score very much. 7-10 is a good estimate, and while I expect Indy to turn things around, I think it's a bit too early to think they'll start hanging 35 on a team with this squad. I think we're looking at a 28-7 game here. I'd say 31, but the Colts don't have a kicker. I realize that I'm taking a spread of -12.5 and an under of 42 here, which is counterintuitive, but call it a reverse correlated parlay. I lose both of these bets very infrequently, as the Falcons are going to struggle to score 14 against a highly underrated Colts defense.

Dallas/NYJ O47
Risk 1u to win .91

The second best offense against the worst defense. I mean, we can expect to see 30+ from Dallas more often than not. The Jets O isn't as bad as people would like to think, and I expect to see them put up almost 20 points.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

For everyone betting on the Indy game, something to keep in mind:

The receiver-thin Colts have placed Aaron Moorehead, their ostensible short-term Marvin Harrison replacement (which is tough to do when you have a -4.6 DPAR and a 36 percent Catch Rate), on injured reserve with a back injury he suffered in Indianapolis’ 13-10 win over the Chiefs last Sunday. The Colts hope to have rookie receiver Anthony Gonzalez, who himself has missed three straight games with an injured thumb, back for the Thankgiving game against the Falcons. If not, it’s pretty much Reggie Wayne, Craphonso Thorpe, and Devin Aromashodu. Marvin Harrison, he of the knee injury, was listed on the official Tuesday NFL injury report as having limited participation in practice, but there’s no firm timeline, according to this Indystar.com report .If they can get past Atlanta, there’s a while to recover before a December 2 visit from the Jaguars.

---------

Epic receiving corps, amirite?

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

rust,

Epic with a capital E.

But really, Gonzalez SHOULD be back, and if he's not, Wayne, Thorpe and Clark should be a potent enough receiving squad against Atlanta. Thorpe's had a week or two to get accustomed to the offense.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I'm really liking the under for the Indy game now.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

on jets +14.5, falcons +12.5

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

detroit is overated but so is GB...they have had a cupcake schedule....if your doing a teaser take DET...straight bet i dont like either side

take Indy for sure...bob sanders by himself holds atlanta under 10 points

i also take the under in the dallas game...coles wont be playing...and jets have a good secondary so there is going to be alot of running

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
i also take the under in the dallas game...coles wont be playing...and jets have a good secondary so there is going to be alot of running

[/ QUOTE ]

The Jets have the second worst pass defense in the league.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really liking the under for every Indy game ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

I teased the Favs + Overs in all three games.

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

My plays for tomorrow:

GB -3.5, +110 for .6u
Dal -13.5, -112 for 1.5u
Ind/Atl U41, -102 for 1u

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

these games are being played on what amounts to 2.5 days prep time. hard to get enthused by any of the offerings without teasing.

really hard.

-c

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Indy/ATL U41

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

Bodog gave me some free money so I made a small parlay and teaser.

Parlay:
GB -180
Dal -14
Ind/Atl U41

Teaser:
GB/Det U60
Det +17
NYJ/Dal U60.5
Ind/Atl U54

Re: ***Thanksgiving NFL Games***
 

How'd u get free money on bodog, they once gave me 25$ but i dont know what it was for...