50NL KK faces flopshove
 

Villian is 56/10/1.2 over 210
I am 24/20/3.5


Is this the kind of villian that will never shove a draw?

iPoker No-Limit Texas Hold'em (NL50), $0.50 BB (6 handed) SilverKitty Hand History converter by www.pokeronline.com.ua

BB ($91.55)
MP2 ($50)
Hero ($52.75)
CO ($15.25)
Button ($66.3)
SB ($48.5)

SB: Post SB $0.25
BB: Post BB $0.50

Preflop:
Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
Hero Raise $1.75
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>
SB Call $1.5
BB Call $1.25

Flop:($5.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]<font color="#0030DD">(3 players)</font>
SB Check
BB Bet $2
Hero Raise $8
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
BB bet $49
Hero ?? 43 to call in a 64 pot = I need 40% equity

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

I fold this flop easily.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

Mh, his af of 1.2 might be low, but dont forget that his range is also very wide, thus he is pretty aggressive compared to the average hand he holds, so it is quite possible that he could be doing this with a draw.

He could be doing this with qq/jj as well as with a set and some odd 2pair hands. Mayb even a10 or K10 and of course some FDs with overs and some OESFDS.

Id run his range through poker stove but it keeps freezing by me :S.

Id guess that you are behind his range tough as the overpairs and tptk hands are very unlikely for him to shove with, without a better read regarding how he plays tptk/overs on drawy board id fold this.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

My first thought is: he has J9, fold.

These 50/10/1 opponents often limp/call every hand, waiting to flop the nuts, then, when they hit the flop hard, they shove. They get called a lot, because nobody gives them credit for a hand, since "he can have anything here". Usually that anything is something that can beat AA.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

Would a made hand from BB really take this line? I'm wondering if even a 1.2 AF would lead for less than 1/2 pot, then shove over our raise (which I think should be bigger, IMO maybe 9.50-10.00). Seems he would be more likely to call and get it in on the turn, trying to string us along for another bet.

I'd like to say I fold this, but do so very reluctantly.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

I'll run it through pokerstove, any suggestions on the range?

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.367% 69.24% 01.13% 385912 6291.50 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 29.633% 28.50% 01.13% 158875 6291.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 76s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

I ran with a standard top 56% of hands with a slight bias to include 22 and factor out some of the really raggy suited connectors.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

Just because his preflop range is 56%, doesn't mean his range after he shoves is. I'd say you're looking at 77+, AhTh, J9 or two pair

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

224,730 games 0.015 secs 14,982,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 8h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.436% 58.12% 01.32% 130603 2967.50 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 40.564% 39.24% 01.32% 88192 2967.50 { AA, KcKs, QQ-77, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, T9s, T7s-T2s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo-A9o, KTo-K9o, T8o, 92o+ }


---

556,380 games 0.031 secs 17,947,741 games/sec

Board: Ts 8h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.116% 68.99% 01.13% 383847 6264.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 29.884% 28.76% 01.13% 160005 6264.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 86s+, 8d5d, 8h5h, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }


---

557,370 games 0.062 secs 8,989,838 games/sec

Board: Ts 8h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.367% 69.24% 01.13% 385912 6291.50 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 29.633% 28.50% 01.13% 158875 6291.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 76s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

I think this is more representative of his range to shove.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

I would just like to say that the guy before me should REALLY thing about players ranges before doing any more stoving.
And fold that flop, villain prob has a 2pair combination.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

So you think he's shoving with any pair, any overcard, any draw? that's going to get you in a lot of trouble.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

he probally have j 9 on 77 so i would flod

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

you either love this or hate it, depends how bad a player he is and other factors. its an ugly spot.. im leaning towards folding, but i wouldnt rule calling out either cause ive seen so many retards with similar stats do this with bottom pair, draws, top pair, etc etc etc specially at these stakes...

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

I fold, his small flop bet combined with shoving just looks too bad and more often than not these 50+ heroes don't know how to play combodraws so his range is polarized towards strong hands. When I think about it, I would very rarely fold kings here but I think now is the time to do it.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would just like to say that the guy before me should REALLY thing about players ranges before doing any more stoving.
And fold that flop, villain prob has a 2pair combination.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol nice, I'm working on it

new to stoving!

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

What's his PFR Call %? Ever since I read Pokey's HUD article, I revamped my HUD and love it.

Just because he limps 56% doesn't mean he's calling Preflop raises 56%. I try to get a rough idea of their 3-bet range by looking at the % of their limps they raise, and use that % to estimate what range they're 3-betting.

I'd guess his calling PFR to be more like 25%:

66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

You're 69% against that range. BUT, that doesn't mean you have that much equity against the range he's shoving here.

He didn't re-raise PF, so he probably doesn't have QQ-AA. If he has JJ-77, you're only 44%. You're 54% against AhQh.

If his range is:

JJ-66,Ah2h,J9s,8d7d,J9o,

You're 34%.

If you throw in AT, you're up to 41%.

I'd look at his WTSD % and Won at SD % to see what he goes to war with, as well as what he calls PFR with to narrow down his calling range and his shoving range.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ever since I read Pokey's HUD article

[/ QUOTE ]

linky plz


the small bet/overbet shove almost always indicates real strength. He's also donking into the PFR which is unlikely to be a draw. It's an odd board though and you will sometimes see some weirdness, but I really think unless he has exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the flush and straight draw he'd likely just call your raise with a draw.

Re: 50NL KK faces flopshove
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ever since I read Pokey's HUD article

[/ QUOTE ]

linky plz


the small bet/overbet shove almost always indicates real strength. He's also donking into the PFR which is unlikely to be a draw. It's an odd board though and you will sometimes see some weirdness, but I really think unless he has exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the flush and straight draw he'd likely just call your raise with a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think calling here is doing so expecting to be behind a lot.

Here's the link:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&amp;vc=1

There's pictures in the thread too.