Another standard hand I think...
 

I feel compelled to call the river bet, although in reality what is he cold calling 2 on the flop with that makes him lead the turn.



Is anybody raising the turn for a free showdown ? or with my redraw outs (if I am behind) should I get to river for the one bet.
The CO is an atrocious player and would call one or two or even 3 bets here with ANY club, if I need the overlay.

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

What's your read on SB? He's calling 15:2 on the flop so he doesn't necessarily need that much. A pair could be enough. That donk-lead to 4 players looks strong (converter seems to have mixed the number of players).

The decision to see the showdown UI must be made on the turn. Are you willing to take 6.5:1 odds you are still ahead UI?

I think you are not ahead often enough vs. unknown so you should fold the river.

I'm not sure can I make these folds in the heat of the battle in a pot this big. But decision should be made on the turn anyway.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

I fold the river approximately never.

Other people here love making big river folds but I'm not a fan of it at all.

Rest of the hand is standard.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

Yeah, I'm not very confident about folding the river getting 14:1 nor do it habitually.

However, my point was that the decision to see the showdown UI should be made on the turn getting 6.5:1 - is my thinking wrong here or should I just re-evaluate on the river separately?

The river is a total blank in all likelihood and should not change the situation compared to the turn.

I'd be more inclined to call the river if the turn had been an overcard to the flop. Now that SB donks into a field of 4 players when a flush and straight completes I read it to be either the most of the time.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

I think call call is better than raise because:

Villain might be semibluffing, if this is the case the FSDR is baller.
Villain might be doing something stupid like b/f a weak hand.

Villain might have "it" and since it's online he'll 3bet here with as little as 8h7h so I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

I think it's fine to decide on the turn to call down assuming that a blank hits and its one bet.

But if the river is an Ace and it goes bet/raise I'm certainly foldint regardless of what I thought on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

Let me rephrase:

I argued that the decision whether to see the showdown UI or not should be made on the turn considering the 7-6.5:1 odds.

Is my thinking wrong here on a general level or should I consider the streets in isolation?

--

For this particular hand I thought getting 7:1 on the turn is not enough to showdown UI. That board hits so many hands in the typical cold-call range that I think Hero is behind on the turn and the river didn't change that.

If the villain donked the turn with e.q. Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx or similar then hats off to him as he would have got me to fold a better hand in a big pot (maybe not in the heat of the battle).

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

testing

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

Mitke

We have the 2nd nut FD on the turn.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ricks:
Mitke

We have the 2nd nut FD on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And we have a GS to a straight as well. I'm not folding the turn. I'm folding the river UI.

I'm just trying to ask is my way of thinking wrong in general if I decide on the turn (considering the ~7:1 to calldown) not to go to showdown UI and to re-evaluate in case we improve - peeling the turn in any case.

I try to elaborate:

I'd fold red kings on the turn on the premise that I think we are behind too often that getting ~7:1 to calldown to be profitable and that out outs are tainted.

I call in this current spot as we have the odds to call. I'm not calling the river because I thought we were behind too often for calling down ~7:1 to be profitable..

Hmm.. come the river it's 14:1 and the 1BB we put in isn't ours anymore. So, re-evaluate to estimate if it's possible SB was donking a TP or something often enough for calling 14:1 to be profitable. I guess it's a crying-call all the same. I wouldn't call if it still was ~7:1.


So my previous blabbering didn't make any sense here and I was just messing around with my own head... just consider the streets in isolation if you decide to continue.

My apologies to the OP for this off-topic discussion.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

No apologies necessary. I am enjoying the discussion.

I would have folded red kings also.

Come the river the only hand I am reasonably beating was AcJx, the turn donk when the flush/str8 came in was awfully strong, coupled with him check calling 2 on the flop (classic,I am on a draw play).

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

I probably misapply the raise-the-turn-for-free-showdown play all the time, but I think that's what I do here; is that bad? In my usual live 2/4 game most of the time that will get me the free showdown (rarely will I get 3bet/led-into, although sometimes I will get called/led-into).

GcluelessnoobG

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

The 9 of clubs is the death card for you considering the ranges. You have two players calling 2 cold on the flop, and the 9 of clubs completes nearly all of them (KQ and clubs both get there). Raising the turn would be really questionable with this hand, since your opponent is so likely to hold what he is representing, not to mention that there is still another player behind you who can hold these hands if the bettor does not.

Worse, you expose yourself to a 3-bet in a spot where you have lots of outs to non-nut hands. That makes a 3-bet really expensive for you, since you are probably drawing pretty thin but won't be able to fold.

Call turn, make a tough decision on the river depending on the card / action. At least you'll know then whether or not SB check-raised the turn, etc.

good luck.
Eric

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, my point was that the decision to see the showdown UI should be made on the turn getting 6.5:1 - is my thinking wrong here or should I just re-evaluate on the river separately?

[/ QUOTE ]

Showing down UI is just one way you can win this hand. On the turn, you have outs to flushes and straights as well.

So when considering a turn call, you want to take into account the entire range of possibilities... of which, call / call is just one contributing term.

When trying to decide the EV of call / call, you should factor in only the profit from the river call, ignoring the fact that you have to put in two bets to get there. You add that profit to the profit from the times you improve, and compare that number to 1 big bet.


So if your hand is either ahead or has no way to improve, you continue only if the profit from the river call is &gt; 1 big bet (the amount you have to spend to get to that profitable situation on the turn). If river call unimproved = profit .5 BB, and you also have a draw that in this pot is worth .75 BB, you also call turn / call river, even though you couldn't call the turn without the draw.

Hope that clears up a few things.

-Eric

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
For this particular hand I thought getting 7:1 on the turn is not enough to showdown UI. That board hits so many hands in the typical cold-call range that I think Hero is behind on the turn and the river didn't change that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn is not a showdown unimproved or not decision. Your hand may have outs to improve as well. Club / Q rivers are an important consideration when thinking about the value of a turn call.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! There isn't a card in the deck that makes your hand worth a raise.

Or maybe that's what you mean... raise the good ones, of which, there are none, so don't ever raise the river. If so, I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

You're thinking about it correctly Mitke. I think there's an easier way to think about (see other post) but what you are describing gets there too (and is the way many people view it).

-Eric

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I probably misapply the raise-the-turn-for-free-showdown play all the time, but I think that's what I do here; is that bad? In my usual live 2/4 game most of the time that will get me the free showdown (rarely will I get 3bet/led-into, although sometimes I will get called/led-into).

GcluelessnoobG

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but in this particular hand Hero is getting three bet fifteen kinds of always on that card.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! There isn't a card in the deck that makes your hand worth a raise.

Or maybe that's what you mean... raise the good ones, of which, there are none, so don't ever raise the river. If so, I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Even the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ricks:
Mitke

We have the 2nd nut FD on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And we have a GS to a straight as well. I'm not folding the turn. I'm folding the river UI.

I'm just trying to ask is my way of thinking wrong in general if I decide on the turn (considering the ~7:1 to calldown) not to go to showdown UI and to re-evaluate in case we improve - peeling the turn in any case.

I try to elaborate:

I'd fold red kings on the turn on the premise that I think we are behind too often that getting ~7:1 to calldown to be profitable and that out outs are tainted.

I call in this current spot as we have the odds to call. I'm not calling the river because I thought we were behind too often for calling down ~7:1 to be profitable..

Hmm.. come the river it's 14:1 and the 1BB we put in isn't ours anymore. So, re-evaluate to estimate if it's possible SB was donking a TP or something often enough for calling 14:1 to be profitable. I guess it's a crying-call all the same. I wouldn't call if it still was ~7:1.


So my previous blabbering didn't make any sense here and I was just messing around with my own head... just consider the streets in isolation if you decide to continue.

My apologies to the OP for this off-topic discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is more or less correct in the abstract but it doesn't apply to this hand. In the red KK example there are much fewer ways you can win the pot. Given the number of draws the hand in question has you can't make a showdown decision mathematically on the turn.

I'd fold this river, fwiw.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I probably misapply the raise-the-turn-for-free-showdown play all the time, but I think that's what I do here; is that bad? In my usual live 2/4 game most of the time that will get me the free showdown (rarely will I get 3bet/led-into, although sometimes I will get called/led-into).

GcluelessnoobG

[/ QUOTE ]

The free showdown play should be done with hands that you can fold with if you are three bet. We can't fold here as there are quite a few cards which may give us a winner on the river.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, my point was that the decision to see the showdown UI should be made on the turn getting 6.5:1 - is my thinking wrong here or should I just re-evaluate on the river separately?

[/ QUOTE ]

Showing down UI is just one way you can win this hand. On the turn, you have outs to flushes and straights as well.

So when considering a turn call, you want to take into account the entire range of possibilities... of which, call / call is just one contributing term.

- clip -

Hope that clears up a few things.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it did and was pretty much where I think I ended up after going in circles a bit first.

At least your posts might help others think about this more clearly - my ramblings probably confused everybody, me included.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

Is raising this flop really the best choice? The only logical reason for raising this flop is to pump it up. Nobody is folding to a flop raise here. The worst odds you're laying is the 15-2 to the small blind (and even a smart small blind player would see it as 18-1 assuming the BB doesn't 3bet). So all it serves to do is put 5 more small bets into a pot that you are very vulnerable to lose.

Whats more is consider a flop raise here and then a blank on the turn (as opposed to the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Then because its a blank we can assume no one got help and thus we get checked to. When we bet here we lay 11-1 odds to 4 players giving the proper odds to draw to even the worst of draws.

No consider a flop call. Assuming the SB still calls (as we can easily assume since he called 2 bets) there would be 7.5 BB in the pot. Now assume a blank again as done before. When it gets checked to us and we bet here we are only laying 8.5 -1 odds making it a mistake for people to draw to certain long shot draws. And since we make money when they make mistakes, we need to give them every opportunity to make such mistakes. By raising the flop we prevent them from making a mistake even if they have no knowledge of pot odds.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

We are raising the flop because not utilizing the equity edge we probably have would forgo too much value (+ we have a redraw w/BDFD). We still benefit from their calls whether they make mistakes or not. It's true we don't probably win this too often with that much company on a board that drawy.

I still think that raising the flop results in us making more profit than waiting to turn to raise on the premise of being able to protect you hand better (which is true). I don't have the time to do the math, though.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
We are raising the flop because not utilizing the equity edge we probably have would forgo too much value (+ we have a redraw w/BDFD). We still benefit from their calls whether they make mistakes or not. It's true we don't probably win this too often with that much company on a board that drawy.

I still think that raising the flop results in us making more profit than waiting to turn to raise on the premise of being able to protect you hand better (which is true). I don't have the time to do the math, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost certainly true. Just because everyone has odds to call doesn't mean a turn raise would be more +EV. There are so many combos that are going to peel that flop for two bets it would be silly not to take the value.

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! There isn't a card in the deck that makes your hand worth a raise.

lol. You got me there. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Or maybe that's what you mean... raise the good ones, of which, there are none, so don't ever raise the river. If so, I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Even the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Another standard hand I think...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the river approximately never.

Other people here love making big river folds but I'm not a fan of it at all.

Rest of the hand is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, not for 1 bet in a big pot. The only time I fold the river for 1 bet is when there more than 2 of us and I'm not last to act (and I missed my draw).