Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

My top 5:

1) Al Horford, ATL
2) Yi Jianlian, MIL
3) Kevin Durant, SEA
4) Sean Williams, NJ
5) Jeff Green, SEA

Horford's averaging nearly a double-double with a steal and two blocks per game while shooting 50% from the field. Atlanta still sucks, but they seem to suck less than in recent years. I give him some of the credit.

Yi has been surprisingly good, averaging 10/7 w/ a steal and 2 blocks a game. I strongly considered putting him at #1 and think he has a very good chance at getting there in the near future if he continues to improve and Pachulia's return to health combined with Atlanta's tweener F glut dig into his minutes at all. Yi could be really, really good - even for a 26-year old rookie.

Durant's got the lovely 19.7 a game, but that's very deceptive. He's among the worst in the league from the floor (38% on an amazing 19 FGA/G) and from three-point land (28% on 5.5 3PA/G). Yes, Seattle sucks - but those numbers mean he's done more harm than good. I've seen him play - he roams the perimiter and hoists a diversified array of contested jumpers and threes. I assume he'll figure out how to play well at the NBA level, but we're not really seeing it now.

Sean Williams has apparently kept his felonious urges in check for long enough to demonstrate he can be a legit NBA big man. He's shooting well in the post and blocking shots like it's his job. What? Oh...nevermind.

Jeff Green has been OK. I figured him for 12/5 as a rookie and would guess that's where he ends up in March - he's 10/4 now in 20 mpg off the bench. He'll be a solid pro, though Yi was still the obvious choice for Seattle imo.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

That's pretty much my exact order, though I could maybe decide on someone in Green's place, but it's close either way.

One number that jumped out at me about Durant is that he's averaging only 5 FTs per game while taking 18 shots a game. Which isn't terrible.. that's pretty much a Rashard Lewis rate. But the kid has skills way beyond Lewis in terms of taking it to the rack. He should do it more.

But I'm also going overboard with him. After all, he's just a rookie.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

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Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

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agreed. also, at some point he'll start going to the rack more, so i don't expect him to shoot this poorly all season. he probably ends up in the 42%-45% range. i think he's basically locked unless the hawks make the playoffs

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

i watched durant more than enough in college to know he's a great shooter/scorer. his percentages will be fine by next year, and i expect him to be in the 24-26 ppg range.

however, his lack of rebounds and assists has me quite worried. as does the fact that he has put on no weight since college.

ive projected him to carmelo anthony since the draft, and really haven't changed my mind at this point. in fact, im pretty sure denver would not trade melo for durant.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

I think Durant is going to be very very good(as I'm sure you guys know by my posts this past year), but I'd only put him at #5 right now


Horford
Jianlian
Williams
Moon
Durant

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

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It hasn't.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

durant is having a tough time getting good looks which doesn't seem right given his skill set. i think eventually he'll shoot better (hard to shoot worse than he is now) but i'm not convinced he'll be a great shooter (above 45%) if he continues to shoot the shots he shoots.

like someone else said, i am more concerned about
1. his size, he hasn't put on any weight at all.
2. his lack of rebounds and assists and the number of turnovers.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

I think it'll be Yi.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.


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Like you say, sample is too small. Give the kid some time and some talent in Seattle.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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i watched durant more than enough in college to know he's a great shooter/scorer. his percentages will be fine by next year, and i expect him to be in the 24-26 ppg range.

however, his lack of rebounds and assists has me quite worried. as does the fact that he has put on no weight since college.

ive projected him to carmelo anthony since the draft, and really haven't changed my mind at this point. in fact, im pretty sure denver would not trade melo for durant.

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apparently he has put on 12 lbs, which is significant; he probably won't ever be huge, but weighing 235 should be enough to play the 3. it was pathetic that he couldn't bench 185, but he's not freakishly developed like lebron james was at that age.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

Al Horford
Yi Jianlin
Sean Williams
Jamario Moon
Jeff Green

Also remember Durant was awful in the summer league and preseason, so those are some more data points against him.

Rookies not playing so crappy veterans can play
Mike Conley

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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wow james and garnett maybe, but i think saying howard is selling him very short.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

I think Al Horford is the early early favorite. At least among those with a noggin. Horford's just one of those hard working, reliable players you need to have a good team. I mean I hated Florida taking the title and wanted nothing more than a chance to beat them a 2nd time (Kansas fan obv). But I find it hard not to like Al.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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wow james and garnett maybe, but i think saying howard is selling him very short.

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I think its a pretty safe bet that Durant will never be as good as Howard is right now. Howard is just sick, somehow Orlando is 4th in defensive efficiency starting Rashard Lewis as power forward along with such defensive stalwarts as Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson.

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yeah, he's just doing dirty awful things at the age of 21. If he can turn it over a bit less and create on his own a little more, we're looking at an all time great. I don't want to suck his dick yet cuz he gets away with 3 seconds on both ends like mad and acted like a baby after a couple of hard fouls in the celtics game.

Plus he's a 7' black guy. I probably couldn't suck his dick if I tried [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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wow james and garnett maybe, but i think saying howard is selling him very short.

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I think its a pretty safe bet that Durant will never be as good as Howard is right now. Howard is just sick, somehow Orlando is 4th in defensive efficiency starting Rashard Lewis as power forward along with such defensive stalwarts as Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson.

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howard is playing very well this season but he is not a 20/10'er yet; the magic started off well last season too, but faded. i think we need to see more of durant to say this.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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yeah, he's just doing dirty awful things at the age of 21. If he can turn it over a bit less and create on his own a little more, we're looking at an all time great. I don't want to suck his dick yet cuz he gets away with 3 seconds on both ends like mad and acted like a baby after a couple of hard fouls in the celtics game.

Plus he's a 7' black guy. I probably couldn't suck his dick if I tried [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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i laughed

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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wow james and garnett maybe, but i think saying howard is selling him very short.

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I think its a pretty safe bet that Durant will never be as good as Howard is right now. Howard is just sick, somehow Orlando is 4th in defensive efficiency starting Rashard Lewis as power forward along with such defensive stalwarts as Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson.

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howard is playing very well this season but he is not a 20/10'er yet; the magic started off well last season too, but faded. i think we need to see more of durant to say this.

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yeah, hes more like a 20/14'er.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

his career is still young but he hasn't averaged 20+ points yet. however, he is obviously a board machine and a walking double double. my point isn't that howard isn't good; he is very good. i'm saying that saying durant won't have as much impact as howard is just a knee jerk reaction to a rough start.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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his career is still young but he hasn't averaged 20+ points yet. however, he is obviously a board machine and a walking double double. my point isn't that howard isn't good; he is very good. i'm saying that saying durant won't have as much impact as howard is just a knee jerk reaction to a rough start.

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well he's averaging 22/14 right now, and I think his current play level is the likely future play level

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

It's not a knee-jerk reaction to say someone projects to have less impact than Dwight Howard. The number of rookie wing players who projected that high in the last twenty years is probably one.

Big guys > Wing players

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

meh.. I think people fall into a trap with the big guy/small guy thing. Being more valuable and being better aren't the same thing.

edit: probably poor word choice on my part, but you're all smart gents and can figure it out

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

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Totally true. All anyone cares about is points per game.

Right now I'd go

(1) Al Horford
(2) Yi Jianlian
(3) Kevin Durant

so the same as OP.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

Though Horford has been impressive and obviously will be a solid NBA PF/C, actually watching Hawks games informs one that the numbers 'slightly' overestimate his performance. His offensive game is a mess (check the TOs), and he's gotten a fair bit of abuse on D (though this is partially coaching/scheme as Woodson is terrible at, well everything, but ingame adjustments especially).

Yi has been better than expected and KD hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but he's still been the best rookie, imo. Though that's only cause Moon has only been starting for the last 10 days.

Williams has been pretty decent recently, but the Nets have looked so fooking awful without VC that it's hard to say that he's for real yet.

Green started last night, which could up his status in the near future, though starting him alongside KD and Wilcox is just asking to get lit up on D/boards.

Top 5 for me is
KD
Yi
Moooooon
Horford
Williams

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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It's not a knee-jerk reaction to say someone projects to have less impact than Dwight Howard. The number of rookie wing players who projected that high in the last twenty years is probably one.

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if not his poor start, then what is the projection based on? it can't be on his draft reports b/c beyond the strength issues he was deemed to be capable of greatness. saying this about durant is based on projections of how much better you think howard will become, as opposed to whether durant can get to the level howard plays at now. garnett and lebron are in the discussion of top 5 nba players, howard is an all star.

i can think of three from the same draft: wade, lebron, and melo.

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

I agree with all you wrote except Melo. He hasn't been all that great. He's playing better this year, though. Let's see if that 3 point range is real.

Even with Melo's improvement, Dwight's better.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

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I was joking. I believe he's 22.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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His stats and the way that he is playing remind me a lot of Kobe during his rookie year. I think you are WAY premature with the above comments.

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

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Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

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Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

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i think duncan is the only true big you can say this about definitively. i don't think this is true even for guys like garnett or yao.

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I agree with all you wrote except Melo. He hasn't been all that great. He's playing better this year, though. Let's see if that 3 point range is real.

Even with Melo's improvement, Dwight's better.

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yeah you're right about melo, but my point was just that there have been and are wings projected to be better than dwight howard based on rookie play. i can go look for some more, but those 3 sprang to mind.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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if not his poor start, then what is the projection based on? it can't be on his draft reports b/c beyond the strength issues he was deemed to be capable of greatness.

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No, it's because "very unlikely to be as good as Dwight Howard" is the default, even for someone as highly touted as Durant was/is. He has shown nothing that makes me rate him higher than I did in June, but the fact that he's been a little disappointing so far isn't the main reason I'm saying this.

Maybe we just disagree on how good Dwight Howard is going to be.

Wait, are you comparing Durant's future value to how good Howard is right now? In that case you're probably right, but doesn't it make more sense to talk about the future of both of them when they're both very young players?

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i can think of three from the same draft: wade, lebron, and melo.

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I don't remember anyone predicting at this point of his rookie season that Wade would be this good. I do remember people predicting that Anthony would be a Top 5 player, but that probably wasn't that great of a prediction. James is the one guy in the last twenty years I was referring to.

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His stats and the way that he is playing remind me a lot of Kobe during his rookie year. I think you are WAY premature with the above comments.

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A lot of players showed those kind of flashes when they were rookies and only three of them became Bryant, James, and Wade. That's why people are saying Durant is unlikely to be as good as Howard. When Bryant was a rookie, one would have also considered him unlikely to reach the level of a Top 5 player in the NBA.

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

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Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

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Kobe might be more talented but he isn't a better basketball player than Duncan. Guarding the paint is huge in the NBA. Most teams don't have it and truly need it. Kobe is a great force, great wing defender but if you can't guard the paint you can't win in the NBA.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Maybe we just disagree on how good Dwight Howard is going to be.

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i don't disagree that howard will get better

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Wait, are you comparing Durant's future value to how good Howard is right now? In that case you're probably right, but doesn't it make more sense to talk about the future of both of them when they're both very young players?

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yeah, that's my point here. the statement was that durant would not have the level of impact of howard (among others), i interpreted this as being howard's impact in terms of his performance to date. if we're talking about career projections then howard probably projects to be better than durant, but i think this is beside the point. i would still rather have durant b/c as someone said earlier we're talking about winning championships, not jersey sales, or in this case all star selections, double doubles. howard may project to be better than durant, but durant has a better chance of becoming the type of player that can carry a team to a championship (i know, different discussion). imo howard is in the class of player that is very good, but not good enough to carry a team to a ring-- something similar to that gold superstar article or w/e.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

i think we are disagreeing mostly on how good howard is going to be. kid's only 21 and he doesn't even really know how to play offense yet. he can average 20+ pts easily without even developing his game much further. in a couple years i don't think something like 26/14 is unreasonable for him annually.

look, durant is only 18. we will all give him time, but projecting him to be a perennial all-star at this age is a bit silly, just as its silly to dismiss him because of his poor start as well.

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"San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade."

I don't know how this hasn't gotten any comments yet, of course they would trade Duncan for Lebron, they wouldn't even think about it.

Re: Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions
 

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

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Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

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Kobe might be more talented but he isn't a better basketball player than Duncan. Guarding the paint is huge in the NBA. Most teams don't have it and truly need it. Kobe is a great force, great wing defender but if you can't guard the paint you can't win in the NBA.

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Glad someone pointed this out. People screw up the scarcity/value/"talent"/better thing too much. The problem with a statement like "better skills in almost every measurable area" is that "skills" almost always means athletic ability and shooting (jump shot, ft's, etc). Is Kobe a better rebounder? No. Does he defend his position better than Duncan defends his? No. Is he a better help defender? No. Does he pass out of double teams as effectively? No.

It's got nothing to do with scarcity. It has everything to do with the definition of "skill". I mean, there were plenty of great 2s in the league in MJ's time, and you couldn't make the same argument. David Robinson/Olajuwon would be swapped for MJ straight up in a heartbeat.

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"San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade."

I don't know how this hasn't gotten any comments yet, of course they would trade Duncan for Lebron, they wouldn't even think about it.

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Only because of age.