another big fold
 

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $175.10
sh58 (UTG): $290.15
MP: $230.17
CO: $54.15
BTN: $405.30
SB: $318.15

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to sh58 (UTG)
<font color="red">sh58 raises to $8</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $7, BB calls $6

Flop: ($24) Qhttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">sh58 bets $18</font>, SB calls $18, BB folds

Turn: ($60) 9http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">sh58 bets $45</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $90</font>, sh58 calls $45

River: ($240) 5http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $200</font>, sh58 folds


yuck yuck yuck yuck

villain is massive nit 16/5/1.5. no history although i have been pretty aggro so far

the thought crossed my mind that he may flat with AK and maybe overvalue it like this, but then i thought in that case he may also flat with AA or QQ.

what a nit i am... anyone else fold here?

Re: another big fold
 

seems like a good fold if u figure he doesnt call pf with a9s, q9s or a6s (all of which are likely to be played like this and would therefore warrant a call).

Re: another big fold
 

i dont fold here

Re: another big fold
 

I don't think I could fold this. If he has AA/QQ/66 so be it.
If you've been pretty aggro it's reasonable to say that villain could have AK here and think its good. Add in the occasional A6s, A9s and it's +EV.

Re: another big fold
 

nits are weird. I don't like making big folds to them b/c you so often find out that they're just plain bad and over-valuing AK or calling out of the blinds with A9ss or w/e. AK I muck the turn but I call him down with this hand.

Re: another big fold
 

if you know he's a nit and felt the trap, why not check the turn (especially to such a rainbow board)?

Re: another big fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you know he's a nit and felt the trap, why not check the turn (especially to such a rainbow board)?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought when he called he probably had a big ace and i could get 3 streets of value.

another thing to note: we are 150BB deep here

Re: another big fold
 

Definitely like this fold.

A nit will call here with 66, AA and QQ..Though the latter two are LESS likely, cmon, what else can we put him on?

I can see him not re-popping preflop in the SB with AA or QQ because it is blatantly obvious he has a huge hand when 3-betting into a legit UTG raiser.

Moving on..once you just flat-call his minraise on the turn, he can put you off AA and QQ... Thus, the Very confident river bet..Most likely hand? 66.

Nits need to play their big hands quietly and passively, as this guy did...From a nit, too much on the riv and too strong a line to be AK IMO

66 all DAY.

Re: another big fold
 

I think this is close enough given his stats, because I wouldn't expect him to show up with even AK here given his line. However I still wouldn't fold, we need ~31%, v this range we have 30%. When we start discounting combos of AA and QQ which he would usually 3bet with, we have the necessary equity to call. Plus this range is really really tight, there is a possibility he may have A6, maybe AK

Board: As Qd 9c 5d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 50.00% 20.00% 5 2.00 { AA, QQ, 66, AQs, A9s, AQo }
Hand 1: 30.000% 10.00% 20.00% 1 2.00 { AhQs }

Re: another big fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is close enough given his stats, because I wouldn't expect him to show up with even AK here given his line. However I still wouldn't fold, we need ~31%, v this range we have 30%. When we start discounting combos of AA and QQ which he would usually 3bet with, we have the necessary equity to call. Plus this range is really really tight, there is a possibility he may have A6, maybe AK

Board: As Qd 9c 5d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 50.00% 20.00% 5 2.00 { AA, QQ, 66, AQs, A9s, AQo }
Hand 1: 30.000% 10.00% 20.00% 1 2.00 { AhQs }

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres almost no way this guy has A6, and most likely not A9 either.. it would be an outrageously loose call from SB against a UTG raise from this guy.. Furthermore, If he has A6, he re-pops on the flop IMO, expecting OP to have AK, AJ, AT...etc...A6 is too weak to just flat call here, especially for a nit.

As mentioned in my other post, the river raise is not ideal for AK as well..I see AK and maaaaaaaybe A9 as the only other possible hands besides AA, QQ and 66.

Re: another big fold
 

This is probably a good fold...but I don't ever make it.

If he had called from the BB after SB did, I would think A9/A6s becomes more a part of his range and I'd probably stack off happily...but I think you're getting shown 66 practically every time here. I guess another AQ is possible...yet obviously much less likely.

Re: another big fold
 

Whats a nit? His vpip isnt that low, he just doesnt raise to many hands. I mean clearly he calls with big hands when other player would raise, because 5% is really low.


No histroy = small sample?

I see nits do this all the time, because alot of them are self aware. This could easily be a6, a9, even 99.

If you think his range is sets then AQ=Ax and Baluga the turn ?

That said im calling.

Re: another big fold
 

not pushing the turn is pretty bad

Re: another big fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whats a nit? His vpip isnt that low, he just doesnt raise to many hands. I mean clearly he calls with big hands when other player would raise, because 5% is really low.


No histroy = small sample?

I see nits do this all the time, because alot of them are self aware. This could easily be a6, a9, even 99.

If you think his range is sets then AQ=Ax and Baluga the turn ?

That said im calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

16% is pretty low.

i forgot to say this is over 1000+ hands

Re: another big fold
 

LOL, lately i stacked ALOT of nits in very weird spots. Basicly me having a strong hand and they having top pair weak kicker, or some weird draw or some other weird ass hand. So i never ever fold here, also those stats dont say anything really.. He can easily call with a hand like A9 OO blinds. 16/5 pretty much says hes bad. But some more info besides stats would be nice.

Re: another big fold
 

So you have no reads other than stats? How often does he defend his blinds?

Re: another big fold
 

about not having specific reads, its pretty bad to not have a single one with some many hands on the guy. Look in his biggest lost and won pots for tells. The first 40 hands at a table i have notes on like 4/6 players and they are massive +EV. I used to be lazy, but now im not using pokertracker so im actually forced to pay attention, and not rely on stupid stats that dont say that much really.

Re: another big fold
 

this is v sick but nits routinely blow up and turn up with AJ or something ridic. also there's only one combo of AA and QQ and he folds the flop some w/99 so i guess i call.

Re: another big fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
about not having specific reads, its pretty bad to not have a single one with some many hands on the guy. Look in his biggest lost and won pots for tells. The first 40 hands at a table i have notes on like 4/6 players and they are massive +EV. I used to be lazy, but now im not using pokertracker so im actually forced to pay attention, and not rely on stupid stats that dont say that much really.

[/ QUOTE ]

these are datamined hands, so haven't played with him before

looking into every players biggest pots won/lost would take ages as a 4/5 table. so it's taking about 3 minutes per player and that is 20 players or so. i obviously don't have time to do this during the hand as well.

also my PT is sooooooo slow.

i agree that nits seem to show up with really strange stuff

Re: another big fold
 

Where you wearing your skirt at the time of this hand?

Re: another big fold
 

If at all possible, it would be nice to know how wide a range he has in blind defense. He may think his two pair is golden. If A9 and A6 are not in the potential range, then I like the fold. i think you get shown 66 pretty much everytime if he is nitty with his blinds as well.

Re: another big fold
 

How can you fold?

Re: another big fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
If at all possible, it would be nice to know how wide a range he has in blind defense. He may think his two pair is golden. If A9 and A6 are not in the potential range, then I like the fold. i think you get shown 66 pretty much everytime if he is nitty with his blinds as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

blind defense is not relevant as i opened UTG, so didn't steal. i don't really see him calling with A6s or A9s but you never know