99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

Villain is good reg/prob. one of you guys. 18/15/3 thru 500 hands. This is the second time I've 3bet him in like 5 min. Otherwise no real history.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $327.20
BB: $200
UTG: $35.40
MP: $206.95
CO: $194.70
BTN: $127

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, <font color="red">CO raises to $10</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $34</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $64</font>,

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

Hm its $30 more to win the $102 in pot + $130 villain has behind. so 30 to win 232. Seems like on odds we should call if he's guaranteed to stack off if we hit (his 4bet range should be quite narrow AA and KK taking a big ol chunk). But it's real close, someone else could prolly do a better breakdown of the numbers.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

I tried a stop n go in a similar spot the other day.....man did I look foolish. Fold is prob best without significant history.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

4bet small is the new 3bet so his range has some bluffs in it, I think you can fold.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

I think calling here with the intention of making some sort of move at the pot is somewhat wreckless.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

4b size is std

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

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I think calling here with the intention of making some sort of move at the pot is somewhat wreckless.

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yeah, prob why I looked foolish.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

meh, stop n go is def the best if you are going to continue.

change def to usually, and it still will probably suck

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

fwiw, if we have 15-20% FE and 35-40% against his calling range, a shove is neutralish EV wise.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

he needs a really wide calling range for you to be 35-40% here. I think you have more fold equity though.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
he needs a really wide calling range for you to be 35-40% here. I think you have more fold equity though.

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TT+, AQ+

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

no

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

To be honest at these stakes the only range most n00b villians will 4 bet preflop is AA,AK,KK,QQ. Also its extremely unlikely if they had such a hand they are likely 2 lay it down to a stop n go. That being said if he is a good regular, then it may be he is making a move on u in response to ur previous 3bet. Either way its more than likely going to be -EV to continue at this point. Folding may seem weak but at these stakes its often the most +ev play

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

but adding in the fact that it's CO vs bb, your 3bet is large - making 4bet/foldling awkward because you almost get to that pot committed point, plus his stats (imo a 18/15 is generally less aggro pre than a 22/00) all work in your disfavour so would fold.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
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he needs a really wide calling range for you to be 35-40% here. I think you have more fold equity though.

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TT+, AQ+

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ya but do you think he'd do this with JJ/TT? if he's even some what competent he'll know the only reason you'd 4bet call with these hands is if there's a ton of history between you and he know u 5bet light. same goes for AQ to an extent.

he should have a polarised 4betting range here, against standard players i like to make mine AK/QQ+/crap, and i'd say his range would be quite similar here

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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he needs a really wide calling range for you to be 35-40% here. I think you have more fold equity though.

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TT+, AQ+

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ya but do you think he'd do this with JJ/TT? if he's even some what competent he'll know the only reason you'd 4bet call with these hands is if there's a ton of history between you and he know u 5bet light. same goes for AQ to an extent.

he should have a polarised 4betting range here, against standard players i like to make mine AK/QQ+/crap, and i'd say his range would be quite similar here

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.225% 64.03% 00.19% 223662072 681114.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.775% 35.58% 00.19% 124285716 681114.00 { 99 }

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

ok well u got his equity vs his calling range. now figure out how much fold equity you need (there's a thread somewhere that shows how but i can't find it). simple maths problem

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

btw like i said before i think his bluffing range here is considerably small than say a 22/20 opens btn for 7, you 3bet to 25, he 4bets to 55

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
he needs a really wide calling range for you to be 35-40% here. I think you have more fold equity though.

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I disagree with having more FE. With this little history a bluff is possible but I really don't think it's more than 15-20% of his range. 15% is probably in the upper part imo.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

And I agree with this
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he should have a polarised 4betting range here, against standard players i like to make mine AK/QQ+/crap, and i'd say his range would be quite similar here

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Especially true for a 18/15 and the crap% is probably not high enough to make a shove +ev here is what I was trying to say.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

wen his 4bet/calling range is only 4 hands then 15% is tiny

edit - actually maybe your right if he's nitty. I just remembered when I played these games a small 4bet would be a bluff from me probably more than 50% of the time

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

Not sure if I understand what you mean. If his 4bet range is already narrow and polarized and he calls with everything but the crap how does that affect how often he is 4betting with 75s in the first place? I mean he might open with it 100% and 4bet with it 10%.

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if I understand what you mean. If his 4bet range is already narrow and polarized and he calls with everything but the crap how does that affect how often he is 4betting with 75s in the first place? I mean he might open with it 100% and 4bet with it 10%.

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im not really sure how to work it out, but if you assume he 4bets x% of the time with his btn opening hands that don't play well in 3bet pots (not just junk but stuff like KTo/33/wateva) then that x% is going to have to be super small to only be 15% of his total 4betting range there considering that the other 85% is AK/QQ+

also yes my theory here is probably horribly explained. just trying to work it out in my head though

Re: 99 Facing Tiny 4bet
 

Okay I see what you mean now.
Maybe Ill try to figure the math out or if someone can link me to an explanation that'd be great cause it's 6am and I'm getting sorta tired. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]