Two-street semibluff?
 

<font color="blue">UTG runs 35/12/1.8 over 800ish hands. One time in the past he raised preflop and then overbet the pot on the flop and I smooth-called OOP with TPWK. We check-checked our way to the river where he revealed an underpair to the board, so my guess is that this overbet isn't as mighty as it looks. However, that is just a guess....</font>

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $113.40
Hero (BB): $121.05
UTG: $101.75
MP: $110.95
CO: $98.50
BTN: $105.45

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, Hero calls $1

<font color="blue">Mmmmm...odds.</font>

Flop: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, UTG calls $18

<font color="blue">I check the flop intending to semibluff check-raise if UTG bets and BTN folds, or smooth-call if UTG bets and BTN calls. My semibluff gets called, so we go to the turn.</font>

Turn: ($60.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $77</font> (villain has $72.75 left, so this is a push)....

<font color="blue">As bad cards go, that's a pretty good one -- if villain doesn't have a 4 this is going to be a pretty scary card. Also, if called I've still probably got eight outs to a winner.

Good play?</font>

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

Not really. villan here is willing to call with any Q and I think you have little FE, if any. I prefer taking the more passive route with this hand (ie. c/c-ing the flop) since

-he'll pay us off when we hit.
-he seems to take somewhat of a passive route with marginal holdings that want to get to showdown.

i know he can't hand read either, but i dont really see how that 4 is a scare card.

i don't really mind the flop c/r, in fact its my std against normal opponents. just not in this situation. against braindead opponents, i rather play a bit straightfoward.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. villan here is willing to call with any Q and I think you have little FE, if any. I prefer taking the more passive route with this hand (ie. c/c-ing the flop) since

-he'll pay us off when we hit.
-he seems to take somewhat of a passive route with marginal holdings that want to get to showdown.

i know he can't hand read either, but i dont really see how that 4 is a scare card.

i don't really mind the flop c/r, in fact its my std against normal opponents. just not in this situation. against braindead opponents, i rather play a bit straightfoward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. What orange said.

He's gonna put you on a 4 exactly never, after a flop c/r. In fact, it makes sets less likely if he does happen to think about that sort of thing.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

I now see why you are running bad.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Maaaaayyyyyyybe against a TAG reg...4 sux though because it cuts down on the sets you are trying to rep.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

villian is retarted ... and he never folds the turn

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I now see why you are running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! Geez, honesty hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Info assimilated (I think). Semibluff people who know where the fold button is, don't semibluff people who call.

So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

The 4 really dosen't change anything, if it was an A/K it would've been better because it makes the board looks more scary for Qx hands.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I now see why you are running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! Geez, honesty hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Info assimilated (I think). Semibluff people who know where the fold button is, don't semibluff people who call.

So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't see much point to c/c turn. Flop you get nice implied odds for cheep and he will often give you 2 cards. But if turn bricks and he keeps firing all of that goes out the window.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I now see why you are running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! Geez, honesty hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Info assimilated (I think). Semibluff people who know where the fold button is, don't semibluff people who call.

So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call, check/fold probably if he bets something decentish.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

This is really bad all around in my opinion. Preflop is ok if you can play postflop, but it looks like you can't, so I'd have folded there if I were you. After your flop c/r I'd shut down on the turn since it's about the worst possible card for you to 2 barrel, because it makes 44 less likely so he's putting us on exactly 77 and folding his overpair/TP exactly never. And probably snapping w/ 88+, too.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Don't see much point to c/c turn. Flop you get nice implied odds for cheep and he will often give you 2 cards. But if turn bricks and he keeps firing all of that goes out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree.

1. Horrible implied odds.
2. Not cheap, he overbet pot.
3. We have no reason to believe he'll often give us a free turn card.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

damn pokey you´ve always been my idol and i thought you play every hand prefectly you´ve just ruined everything! Can´t you just delete the thread and pretend it never happened?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
damn pokey you´ve always been my idol and i thought you play every hand prefectly you´ve just ruined everything! Can´t you just delete the thread and pretend it never happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey is still my idol, even if I play higher than he does [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

In fairness, I was sort of expecting that his hand does not always have a Q in it. Based on the previous hand, I was figuring him for an underpair -- that's why I thought I'd have some folding equity on the turn. If he had 88-JJ, that 4 was a GREAT bluff card for me. Maybe he smooth-calls the flop checkraise because he can't bring himself to believe that his beautiful little underpair is actually beaten; when the turn bricks and I continue betting strongly, he can finally talk himself into folding his JJ. I figured that if he didn't have a Q he was folding to this turn bet, and that if he DOES have a Q I've still got a 1-in-5 chance of winning on the river. If he folds to this turn bet just 1/3rd of the time, it's an EV-neutral proposition. Am I REALLY overstating things to think he'll dump it at least that often?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In fairness, I was sort of expecting that his hand does not always have a Q in it. Based on the previous hand, I was figuring him for an underpair -- that's why I thought I'd have some folding equity on the turn. If he had 88-JJ, that 4 was a GREAT bluff card for me. Maybe he smooth-calls the flop checkraise because he can't bring himself to believe that his beautiful little underpair is actually beaten; when the turn bricks and I continue betting strongly, he can finally talk himself into folding his JJ. I figured that if he didn't have a Q he was folding to this turn bet, and that if he DOES have a Q I've still got a 1-in-5 chance of winning on the river. If he folds to this turn bet just 1/3rd of the time, it's an EV-neutral proposition. Am I REALLY overstating things to think he'll dump it at least that often?

[/ QUOTE ]

But, based upon that previous hand, if he has a hand like TT isn't he checking behind the turn if you just call his flop bet?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]

But, based upon that previous hand, if he has a hand like TT isn't he checking behind the turn if you just call his flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's always a possibility, and at that point I take my two rolls of the dice with my eight-outer. However, isn't it better to try to steal the hand instead? I STILL get my eight outs twice, but I ALSO get folding equity.

Seriously, I ALWAYS misjudge folding equity. It seems that people change their calling ranges VERY abruptly, and for reasons I can't seem to fathom.

Poker is hard. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

Serious question: How strongly should Hero consider folding flop to the overbet?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

I think the 4 at the turn makes the fold equity worse. Suitedconnectors seems to loose value OOP against callingstations since they hit draws alot more often than nuts.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

his calling range on the flop is pretty much his calling range on the turn.

or in other words: you're getting called

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

I guess this is a big of a blanket statement, but most 35/12's are donkeys, and I hate bluffing donkeys cuz they don't get why folding marginal hands is important. Which is also why I fold this pf, of if I had 56s, I would c/c flop or lead flop. I really hate a c/r here vs a monkey just cuz they don't understand why folding marginal hands is so important.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Make that:

"call, check and fold to anything more than a bet of like 1/4 pot"

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($60.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $77</font> (villain has $72.75 left, so this is a push)....

<font color="blue">As bad cards go, that's a pretty good one -- if villain doesn't have a 4 this is going to be a pretty scary card.

</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

yikes. joke?

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

Pokey:

A King or an Ace would be a good scary card. Any card &lt; Q and villain still has top pair.

And bad players aren't folding top pair.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Don't see much point to c/c turn. Flop you get nice implied odds for cheep and he will often give you 2 cards. But if turn bricks and he keeps firing all of that goes out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree.

1. Horrible implied odds.
2. Not cheap, he overbet pot.
3. We have no reason to believe he'll often give us a free turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read orange's original reply.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

Don't like it. 4 is not a scary turn card, don't bluff donks.

Also, if pfr raiser is decent and bets flop, other player folds and you c/r, he only has to fold 63% of time for it to be immediately profitable. Combine that with fact you'll hit 18%ish of time, and he only needs to fold 45% of time. I think you'll get folds that often from reasonable player for sure. What I'm getting at, is the c/r is +EV on its own; you don't always need to follow up on turn against the good player you should be making this move against.

Re: Two-street semibluff?
 

if i raised the flop which i may do from time to time (not sure whether folding, calling or raising is the best option, you say he checked down last time so maybe calling is the best, letting you see 5 cards and then betting if you hit)
i would probably only shove if an A,K,5 or 6 hit. with a pair and an OESD your equity is alot better, so that + FE should make it a +EV play and if the overcard hits you get more FE so that should also make it +EV.

the trouble with bluffing on a J or T is that he may well have JJ or TT, so these are ok cards to bluff but have their problems.