Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

I recently made a post that received some very quick "why is this even a thread" answers, which at first glance seemed entitled. But I wasn’t too happy with the answers and with no full analysis I decided to give it a shot. And when I thought about the hand, those people who answered might just have been a bit too quick analyzing the hand and my play.
I’m going to break this hand down and give you my analysis on it, and hopefully get some good feedback. If you think my analysis sucks or is just more suited for 25/50(hehe!) or 0.5/1 please say so and be constructive.

Circumstances

My opponent is running at 17/13 over 4200 hands which tell me his stats should be fairly accurate, I could see him playing from 16/12 to 18/14-ish with only 4200 hands on him though. This also obv depends on his mood but we got to assume it’s kinda accurate.
His flop and turn AF is 3.7 respectively 4.5. So he’s also an aggressive player.
My analysis is based on him being a good player and that he knows I am a good player both statements should be true for regulars at 5/10.

The hand

Party Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $1,309.50
Hero (BTN): $1,510
SB: $512
BB: $1,000
UTG: $955
MP: $1,131

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $40</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $40, SB calls $35, BB folds

Pre-flop in this position I think he will play 22+, AJo+, ATs+, KQo+ and some bigger SCs, like T9s+ and also suited broadways, and mix it up with the occasional 64s etc. In PokerStove this makes up 12,8% of all hands in Hold’em and I think that sounds fairly accurate. Leaving the deviation in his range for some other SCs.

Flop: ($130) Jhttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">MP bets $99</font>, Hero calls $99, SB folds

I think he will cont-bet this flop all day long with his flop AF and his bet sizing doesn’t tell us much either. Now we go into level 2 thinking: he knows I will not float here with air, because his perceived as tight, but especially since I have one player to my left, who hasn’t acted yet. So from his POV I got to have a hand here or at least a gutshot with overcards. I can’t put him on any hand yet but he could put me on a range of hands that could look like this:
KQ, 55, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, T8s, JTs, QTs, QJs, KJs, AJ, and T8s. He knows that he’s perceived as tight so he could expect me calling him more with high pairs when he raise from early positions and also just call him on that flop with those, aka slowplaying.

Turn: ($328) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $210</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $600</font>

Versus my range, how many hands would I actually fold here if he bet? With T8s, KQ, 99, JJ, 55, QQ, QTs and I continue for sure. And maybe also with JTs,KJs,AJ. I continue to play, some hands due to his high turn AF. So when he second barrel he gets TT and most likely JTs to fold and maybe also KJs and AJ. So that sounds like a bad move if he’s got one pair/air. Furthermore when he checks and I bet he got to think of a hand that bets here, let’s say I bet KQ, 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and QJs for sure. I am more inclined to check here with KJs and AJ since he just checked, which seems suspicious. He's the type of player that would make a bad(imo) second barrel here with a bluff, so he don't and I can put him on a good hand/nada that won't call anyways if I bet. Lets say I check TT, JTs, QTs and a lot of the time KJs and AJ. I then only bet with a hand that has a one pair hand in a bad shape. So if he holds a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he knows that if I bet and he check/raises he only beats KQ, which is really bad from his perspective. So with a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he would most certainly bet/fold or check/call, which he didn't.

So his check/raise doesn’t mean AA/KK/AQ/AJ, well what else would he do this with? He knows I could very likely have turned a big hand here if I bet, so his check/raise looks really strong to me. My top two pair looks sweet, but we’re not beating one hand, are we? We get to chop with QJs and all other hands he check/raises here with has us crushed, like: 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and KTs.

Appendix

He might interpret my bet as weak and C/R me because of that, but I don't think he will do if often, if at all since he won't be getting a fold here exept from KJs and AJ that might bet this turn for a free showdown and fold. Just because I bet kinda small doesnt mean I am weak, it's the fact that I DO bet that tells the story.

Conclusion

If he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

pretty good post, you are thinking about your range and his in every point and that is all poker is. i think the fold is good.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

Nice post, I like your thought process. Too bad I suck at folding so I probably just stick it all-in here.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

Hi ocklind,

Interesting and well-thought-out post. Here are my thoughts:

Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind. You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

I'd probably tend to call here with the intention of calling most rivers (blanks for sure, and re-eval on bad-looking cards) if he bets, and betting small if he checks. 3-bet Shoving the turn could also be decent if you were perceived as aggressive (which it doesn't sound like you are).

One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

So to sum up, given your actual range, Qs up is near the bottom, but your turn-betting range should put Qs up near the top IMO.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

ty for the feeback!

cero_z:

[ QUOTE ]
Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we bet all hands except TT and maybe JTs we give him a harder time making a good move? I like checking behind with QTs though since we most likely hand the best hand, and have the draw, but if we face a C/R we we won't really like getting it in here, since he will have us crushed.

So what hands do we bet here? KJ and AJ and check behind JTs, QTs, TT to not become to predictable? I thought we wanted to manage some sort of pot control with KJ for example?


[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misread our stack sizes, since we onlyhave 400 left to put in, and if he C/Rs to 600 we gotta get it in?

[ QUOTE ]
You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he assumes I don't bet JTs here to keep the pot small and since I also have the draw, so I am not particualary afriad of giving a free card. He could expect me betting QT here but I still thinks he'd rather just bet his one pair hands then, like AA/KK/AQ and then maybe put in one more bet on a safe river.

[ QUOTE ]
One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good conclsuion, but what hands should I add to my range do you think Like my suggestions above? QT, KJ and AJ?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?


[ QUOTE ]

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont think he puts me on a complete float, since hes perceived as tight. He may C/R the turn w/ TT but since he gotta expect me to have a good hand if I bet, its kinda stupid of him to C/R.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

u cant really assume this :P it would equal some kinda tilt and that was not me impression of him atm

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

[ QUOTE ]
You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?

[/ QUOTE ]

tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's better to 3-bet him here w/ A3s-ish, and 76s-ish to mix it up. I've watched cts play some at CR and there he said a very clever thing, its better to 3bet the hands that play not so good post flop, like A3 and 76s(that doesnt hit a good flop that often) than a hand that plays better on the flop, for eg QJs. And I also call him with all SCs, all pairs and some KQs, QJs etc, so I think he's gotta have a hard time putting me on a hand. And yes, I can screw with him a lot on the flop when I whiff, bcuz of position.

[ QUOTE ]
tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I forgot to mention that we had no real history. So whats ur play without hist?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

(I like your OP because I think we need more detailed analysis like this in this forum.)

How does villain perceive you? Could he "count" on you betting the turn?
Because villain can't like it if it goes check-check on the turn if he has decent hand. There are players who are more likely to check than to bet here if they have QT/JT/T9/TT/KJ/98/76. Unless he has a straight or a very weak hand he can't feel good about giving a free card.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

Ty LouisCyphre, I will try to post some more longer hand analysis in the future now, since it generates some good and very insightful discussions.

#The Hand

I think that because he's perceived as tight, he can't be expecting me betting That many hands. As I said, I think he will assume I check some jacks behind, TT and even QT.

Why is that? Well because he gotta realise himself that it looks kinda suspicous when he checks the turn here. He either has a monster, or air (motivated in the OP). In neither situations should I bet light here, imo.

But now I've come to change my mind since so many has pointed out that my hand becomes to defined if I do not bet here, or could be so, I have to give up some information by not betting a lot of hands?

So my question is really, what hands do I add and why?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's better to 3-bet him here w/ A3s-ish, and 76s-ish to mix it up. I've watched cts play some at CR and there he said a very clever thing, its better to 3bet the hands that play not so good post flop, like A3 and 76s(that doesnt hit a good flop that often) than a hand that plays better on the flop, for eg QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i agree with the 3betting trash is sometimes better than 3betting with hands that if called your could be dominated, like JQs vs his AQ/QK etc. but at same time my initial decision of whether to 3bet will depend more on whether ive 3bet in the last few hands or not. if i have, then i won't 3bet anything other than decent hands, if i haven't, and the raise is not a nit nor a very good tag then ill happily 3bet with whatever cards i have. also means in the first ten hands or so if i do this then, get called pf, cbet flop and the guy folds, when i then flip over 95off it helps my image (although more recently ive been preferring not to show these and only show 3barrels).

so to sum up that, for me although my hole cards will be a factor as to whether i fold/call/3bet, whether ive done so in the last 10 or so hands, and who the opponent is will be the main factors.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I forgot to mention that we had no real history. So whats ur play without hist?

[/ QUOTE ]

will depend a bit if there is a fish i recognise on the table, as then i want to lag up my image as much as possible, look like the crazy guy. if no fish, then ill just base this on his stats, AF of 4.5 im shoving this no doubt, if he has AF of less than 2 then it becomes tougher decision imo.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

I think that you all seem to underestimate a player only becuase of his stats. 4.5 in turn AF means that he's very aggressive on the turn, not a complete maniac, bluffing in really bad spots, right? Or does it mean exactly that?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

"if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right?"

By this I mean that he prolly can put us on a big hand, that will call his C/R and therefore only do it with legit hands. So the "good" player should assume you dont get many hands to fold on the turn and therefore wont bluff here. U agree?

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

a little bit of a lack of continuity in your pf and turn reads. T8 and KT aren't in your initial pf reads (and probably rightly so for a 17/13 player UTG+1) but you made your turn decision based somewhat on him having those hands.

as for analysis of his turn aggro, i think it means if anything he's not going to be taking many c/c lines at all. in other words, IF he checks this turn with AA KK or AQ, he does it with intentions of raising or folding (most likely a raise). whether or not he checks those hands in the first place i suppose is up for debate.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

[ QUOTE ]
a little bit of a lack of continuity in your pf and turn reads. T8 and KT aren't in your initial pf reads (and probably rightly so for a 17/13 player UTG+1) but you made your turn decision based somewhat on him having those hands.

as for analysis of his turn aggro, i think it means if anything he's not going to be taking many c/c lines at all. in other words, IF he checks this turn with AA KK or AQ, he does it with intentions of raising or folding (most likely a raise). whether or not he checks those hands in the first place i suppose is up for debate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I suppose it's kinda contradictiory but I think KTs is in his range, and maybe, when he chooses to mix it up, he plays T8s.

I agree with what you are saying, if he checks the turn, he's prolly not going to C/C but then again, I don't think he C/C the turn with AA/KK/AQ etc.

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

First off i love the thought process u went through if i read villian correctly in this hand with his flop aggresion of course he is going to cb this mostly dry flop. Now when you call with your passiveness he can squarely put u on a pr of jacks right?? I think he has kq or aq here 90% of the time and that is why he goes for the c/r on turn cuz he puts you on a jack and the queen is a scare card. If i was playing this turn i would just call the raise and even though a lot of rivers kill your action, i would take the chance to stack him on a safe river since he will most likely lead river here 100% and then i get my stack in quickly. If your not willing to play for stacks with top 2 it is very -ev to call this pf. Great post though helped me think thru hands better and also what is villian thinking during hands

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

i think i check behind a lot of the time.. this is a tough spot after you call the flop because your range is narrowed quite a bit IMO.. getting him to stack off w/ AA/KK is tough here.. he has to know you're going to bet the turn every time and be able to raise it for value, OR he's sure you're going to fold and this is a really really good play.. but this is a tough spot to go through with it

Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?
 

I don't think he would risk a free card here w/ a set, so this leads me to believe he's either got KT or some sort of semi-draw like JT or 9T. I stack off here w/ top 2 all day. I know he's 17/13 and all and he's probably not doing this w/ air, but I just can't get away here.