Weather Effects in Football
 

Does anyone here have some insight or data into how weather affects a football game? I'm specifically curious about soggy conditions and rain versus dry conditions.

Obviously, there's a ton of "conventional wisdom" out there, but it seems like the conventional wisdom is wrong a little more often than it's right.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

I just read an article which tracked the run/pass breakdown by month, and there were no significant differences at all

I would also guess that bad fields brings teams closer together - good teams prefer good weather

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Well, dome teams are usually terrible in cold weather games.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

I would agree that the better teams would want better weather.

Bad weather promotes unusual mistakes and higher variance, which benefits the worse team usually.

Bad weather also really slows the game down typically, which benefits the slower team more, because while it slows both teams down, it slows down the faster team more so.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

I agree with the consensus about weather = variance, thereby helping the less talented team.

Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

Concerning statistics about dome teams and warm weather teams (Tampa Bay especially) playing poorly below certain temperatures...you have to remember that regardless of climate, these are all road games to begin with. I don't know if there's any value in those stats, but I'm inclined to believe playing on the road is responsible for most of those streaks that are quoted, and variance plays a large role as well.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/4...graphickj4.jpg

Brag: I did the research for this article.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

you picked a sweet picture too

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

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I thought this was the case, but you hear the casual fan say the opposite VERY frequently.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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you picked a sweet picture too

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The guy that wrote the article (Aaron Schatz) is a Pats fan... heh.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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Well, dome teams are usually terrible in cold weather games.

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I've heard NFL players contest this point, since many of them played in cold weather often & regularly enough. Most dome teams just suck, regardless of weather. Indy last year was obvious exception, along with 1998 Vikes & Falcons

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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I thought this was the case, but you hear the casual fan say the opposite VERY frequently.

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God you are so right. One game I attended in the student section of Tiger Stadium was Oregon State a few years ago. I had what had to have been the stupidest LSU fan ever behind me (and trust me, we have some stupid fans!) -- loud mouthed SOB. It was POURING. I mean we were all soaked in the stadium, and lightening delayed the game, but no one went anywhere. We just stayed there, getting soaked... waiting. (There were several field rushers doing Pete Roses at midfield, including one streaker!)

Anyway, I remember him saying "this weather is PERFECT for us. We are a running team!" That was so stupid on so many levels... he drove me nuts. He would yell [censored] like "F*ck you Marcus Randell!" And "hey Saban, get Randall out of there -- he obviously doesn't have the leadership." What a hell does that even mean?

Thankfully he left early because we were down a couple of scores, and we pulled out a crazy win where the evil Staruday night South Louisiana voodoo swamp demons made OSU's kicker miss 3 xps!

EDIT: Only fitting that Marcus Randall ran for the winning TD. Not a great LSU QB, but a good kid. I hope that idiot felt good and stupid... but he probably didn't, and likely still thinks he is a football genius.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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I would also guess that bad fields brings teams closer together

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I am picturing two football teams cuddled up by the fire on a wet, cold, gloomy day sipping hot chocolate with marshmallows and whipped cream.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/4...graphickj4.jpg

Brag: I did the research for this article.

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how does this compare to the baseline of teams playing away from their home field?

was the competition different from home environs to road games?

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/4...graphickj4.jpg

Brag: I did the research for this article.

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These stats seem incredibly skewed.

Take the Colts: 2-6. How many of those games are at New England? Playing at the best team in the league has a huge effect on that record.

Take the Viking: They have a big disparity but look at their division. I'd guess that stat is full of them beating the Lions on the road in a dome (a team they have been better than) and losing on the road to GB and Chicago teams that were better than them.

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Yeah, including playoff games skews things because they're going to be against much better competition as well as usually being under 50 degrees. Even ignoring playoff games though, there's still a big disparity.

The thing that surprised me the most was that the Saints had a winning road record from 2000 to present. Didn't they suck for a long, long time?

Edit: I guess they didn't suck but they were an average at best team, so it surprises me that they were a .500 team on the road.

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The true era of Saints suckitude was pre-Mora. Anything since then is just ordinary suck.

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The Saints have sucked hard at home for the last decade.

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cant really answer your question op, but it sure is fun to play football in inclement weather imo

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

Valid point, imo. lemme find the NYT article (RR)

The article was written at the end of the 05 season, so the Colts only lost twice to the Pats on the road; once was the Jets. The Vikings won 2 of the 5 road games against the Packers. I'm not sure how many of the 5 were in cold weather, but the two of their wins were.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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Does anyone here have some insight or data into how weather affects a football game? I'm specifically curious about soggy conditions and rain versus dry conditions.

Obviously, there's a ton of "conventional wisdom" out there, but it seems like the conventional wisdom is wrong a little more often than it's right.

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fwiw, Belichick was just talking about this on the radio. he said on balance a sloppy field helps the passing game b/c it's so hard to get a pass rush. the downside is the ball handling is harder

he mentioned that in the Snow Bowl game, which was played in a complete blizzard, they were in shotgun for much of the time.

I looked, and Brady was 32/52 for 312 yards, which were very big #'s for that year. attempts, completions, and yards were all Brady's 2nd highest of the year.

with so few grass fields actually left, it seems like this is less of a factor now

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this article is the epitome of unsubstantiated conclusions

(nit: do people actually write A.F.C. instead of AFC?)

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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this article is the epitome of unsubstantiated conclusions

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My own research (read: gambling system spreadsheet), using completely different methodology, confirms the article's conclusion that dome/warm weather teams have a harder time in the cold.

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(nit: do people actually write A.F.C. instead of AFC?)

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The NY Times style guide does, I'm sure. They also use Mr., Mrs., etc., whereas almost every other U.S. paper just gives the last name unadorned. I find their formality to be pleasingly civilized.

Re: Weather Effects in Football
 

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fwiw, Belichick was just talking about this on the radio. he said on balance a sloppy field helps the passing game b/c it's so hard to get a pass rush. the downside is the ball handling is harder

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I've also heard it said that a sloppy field helps WRs get open, since they know when and where they're going to make their cuts, and can therefore better prepare for the difficult change of direction than the defensive back. Sounds reasonable enough, but might be total bunk for all I know.

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Yeah, that does sound good, but how often have we seen QBs simply not be able to grip the ball, or wrs not be able to catch it?

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Right, in spite of all these advantages that allegedly accrue to the offense on a sloppy field, bad weather games sure do seem to be low scoring.