$3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

Its your typical super loose $3/$6 limit B&M game with 5+ limpers per hand for any amount of bets preflop. Im in the CO with 87 and know the person to my left is generally very tight and most likely wont play his button without some sort of premium holding. I limp with 87 with a few people in front of me in the pot already. Button folds, sb (Bob) completes, and BB checks. So a few of us to the flop. Sorry for no pretty graphics, maybe i'll edit it later so there are. Flop is T64. Checked around to me so I check. Nobody is folding any pair in this game so betting on the come seems kind of foolish. Turn is a K. Bob (very solid and semi-nitty player) now leads out and bets. There are 2 calls between Bob and I, I call. River is a 9 making the board T64K9. Bob instantly leads out and gets called all-in by someone (he had $5 left). I raise with my 2nd nut straight and without almost any hesitation Bob 3 bets me. Let me note, he is NEVER doing this with 2 pair, he is NEVER doing this with a set on a possible straight board; given these 2 pieces of information and the fact Bob is never getting out of line, must we pay off the last bet knowing theres about a 95% chance Bob has exactly QJ in this spot? Thanks
-Cragg

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

I'm folding the turn and calling the river.

-J

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

I think you answered the question for yourself. If your read is that strong (95%) then you fold. There are roughly 13BB in the pot so if Bob will turn over QJ only 12 in 13 times you can call profitably. However, you say he never makes this river 3-bet with a set or two pair so that means that the rest of the time he has the same hand you do and you win only half the pot. This all adds up to make this an easy fold for you.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

I'd still bet the flop, you've got a double gutshot straight draw, so you have 8 outs. If you bet, and get another 5 callers, that's only +EV for you. Bet it for value!

As played: ALWAYS call the last bet!

Don't always assume the worst! And maybe he would have folded had you bet the flop, you never know. And still: the pot would have been bigger, so the crying call would be even more correct...

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

Call the river. Is he the type of player to bet into the field with a draw in the turn?

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

Yes he does bet strong draws

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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I'd still bet the flop, you've got a double gutshot straight draw, so you have 8 outs. If you bet, and get another 5 callers, that's only +EV for you. Bet it for value!

As played: ALWAYS call the last bet!

Don't always assume the worst! And maybe he would have folded had you bet the flop, you never know. And still: the pot would have been bigger, so the crying call would be even more correct...

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I don't always assume the worst. If it had been anyone else like Mo, Walker, or any number of other "really bad" regulars at my casino this is an easy call and maybe even a cap. Given that its Bob who I consider to be semi-solid, I think even though the pot is fairly big, its an easy fold. I try not to get into that mindset that "its only 1 more bet to see it". Those crying calls that you make when you know you can't win add up a lot in live sessions where you see far fewer hands than you would multi-tabling online.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

*g*
I don't think I could call the turn. Unless I miscounted (just like I often do live [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) we don't have adds to call.

But I never fold to the river raise.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet.

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I think you misread. He lead out on the river, I raised, and he 3 bet. You're suggessting capping second nut straight against a fairly solid regular?

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

I see a lot of people telling me to fold the turn. Why? Its a completely rainbow board and the only hand that could potentially have me crushed on the river is QJ if i hit the high end of my straight.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

Call down on the river. It's also part of the metagame.
But do you have correct odds to chase your 8 outs on the turn? Well it might not be 8 outs if there is a higher straight out there. I might discount it to 6-7 outs. You gotta have the pot laying ~6:1 for you.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet.

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I think you misread. He lead out on the river, I raised, and he 3 bet. You're suggessting capping second nut straight against a fairly solid regular?

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I missread it, still a call though

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

To those who don't call the turn:

There are 5 people seeing the flop ("a few" thus two in front of us, hero himself, and the blinds), for 5 SB or 2.5 BB.
When the SB bets the turn, there are two callers, so we're getting 5.5:1 for an 8-outer. I'll call those odds any day...

Heck, even if you make the 9 only a partial 3-outer since there is a chance that someone's got exactly QJ, then the odds are STILL good, especially counting implied odds.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

i bet the flop.

you arent getting check raised much

you probably can buy yourself a free card on the turn UI

you have good equity on the flop anyway

when you bet this flop, you should be thinking about value. not about making people fold. although, of course, if you can get A8 or K8 to fold, its a nice bonus.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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i bet the flop.

you arent getting check raised much

you probably can buy yourself a free card on the turn UI

you have good equity on the flop anyway

[/ QUOTE ]So very QFT!

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

Bob could have misplayed a set (wanting to c/r on the flop) and be betting his hand like this. For exactly this possibility, I would not fold to his 3-bet. If you have this tremendous read on Bob, then I wouldn't cap either, so just call. Please don't fold the 2nd nuts.

I would call the turn with my double gutshot, but as Kit pointed out leading out on the flop for value is a very good idea.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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I try not to get into that mindset that "its only 1 more bet to see it". Those crying calls that you make when you know you can't win add up a lot in live sessions where you see far fewer hands than you would multi-tabling online.

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Yes, but the one crying call you make when you're "sure" you're beat and surprisingly win pay off for the rest of those and then some.

We're not suggesting calling just for the sake of throwing money away.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

fold preflop

bet flop

turn is fine

if there is a 4 bet cap on the river then cap, otherwise just call

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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I try not to get into that mindset that "its only 1 more bet to see it". Those crying calls that you make when you know you can't win add up a lot in live sessions where you see far fewer hands than you would multi-tabling online.

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Yes, but the one crying call you make when you're "sure" you're beat and surprisingly win pay off for the rest of those and then some.

We're not suggesting calling just for the sake of throwing money away.

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Against a random person I don't know i snap call everytime. You have to realize that I play with a lot of the same people on a daily basis so I have a very good idea of how they play. Calling this 3 bet against Bob is spew 100% of the time. He doesnt get out of line ever.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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fold preflop



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Far too nitty my friend. Im not waiting for AQ/pp type of hands in this game. The big winners for you are gonna be your suited connector type hands, not the high card/pp hands. Playing tonight, I lost everytime except once with AK (always raising preflop, always betting it hard) in a 12 hour session. AQ/AJ combined for a total of 0 wins. If I played the way you're advocating, I would come out a loser 100% of the time at my casino.

Since this thread seems about done, I threw my 87 face up and said "i cant call you Bob" and he showed QJ to scoop both main and side pots. People were asking me how I could muck that on the end... only response is you obviously havent played with Bob before.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

I'd fold 87 preflop. If it were suited, I'm definitely calling, though, since suited connectors play well multiway.

Lead flop. You have a double gutshot in a large, limped field. Bet for value.

Turn looks good.

If your read is really this good on the river, then it's a fold. You're getting 11.5:1 and would need to be getting 20:1+ to make this a profitable call when he has the nuts 95% of the time.

I do question whether a read could ever be this good, though. And if there's even just a 3.7% margin of error in your read (i.e., if Bob only has the nuts 91.3% of the time instead of 95% of the time), then it could be a profitable call...

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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On the turn OOP into 4 calling stations? That's a sick read to know that he'll do that and never 3bet a set on a non 4straight/3flush board. It also makes him more of a donk than a nit.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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fold preflop



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Far too nitty my friend. Im not waiting for AQ/pp type of hands in this game. The big winners for you are gonna be your suited connector type hands, not the high card/pp hands. Playing tonight, I lost everytime except once with AK (always raising preflop, always betting it hard) in a 12 hour session. AQ/AJ combined for a total of 0 wins. If I played the way you're advocating, I would come out a loser 100% of the time at my casino.

Since this thread seems about done, I threw my 87 face up and said "i cant call you Bob" and he showed QJ to scoop both main and side pots. People were asking me how I could muck that on the end... only response is you obviously havent played with Bob before.

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rofl

if it was suited, then type '87s', or '87hh' (for hearts). if it was offsuit then fold preflop and its not close.

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Against a random person I don't know i snap call everytime. You have to realize that I play with a lot of the same people on a daily basis so I have a very good idea of how they play. Calling this 3 bet against Bob is spew 100% of the time. He doesnt get out of line ever.

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Since this thread seems about done, I threw my 87 face up and said "i cant call you Bob" and he showed QJ to scoop both main and side pots. People were asking me how I could muck that on the end... only response is you obviously havent played with Bob before.

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If this decision is so easy . . . why did you post this thread?

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

you obviously havent posted with craggoo before

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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you obviously havent posted with craggoo before

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A+

Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
 

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Against a random person I don't know i snap call everytime. You have to realize that I play with a lot of the same people on a daily basis so I have a very good idea of how they play. Calling this 3 bet against Bob is spew 100% of the time. He doesnt get out of line ever.

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Since this thread seems about done, I threw my 87 face up and said "i cant call you Bob" and he showed QJ to scoop both main and side pots. People were asking me how I could muck that on the end... only response is you obviously havent played with Bob before.

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If this decision is so easy . . . why did you post this thread?

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Maybe next time I'll title the thread : Brag: I read souls