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-   -   pay off? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=547499)

PokerBob 11-16-2007 06:35 AM

pay off?
 
live 30 game.
BB here is an exceptional player. we have a long history. utg is a spazz, but knows he is in treacherous waters vs. me and the BB.

utg raises, folds to me in the hijack and i 3bet A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] folds to BB who calls, utg calls.

flop 3 ways for 9.67SB
J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bb checks, utg donks, i call, bb calls.

turn 3 ways for 6.3BB: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, utg bets, I call, BB calls.

River 3 ways for 9.3BB: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB donks, utg mutters and folds, I...........

CardSharpCook 11-16-2007 06:40 AM

Re: pay off?
 
pay the man. He's earned it.

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:43 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 06:45 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

he cant have KQ given his turn line.

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:49 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]




he cant have KQ given his turn line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 06:51 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]




he cant have KQ given his turn line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

but how can he ever have that here?

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:54 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]




he cant have KQ given his turn line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

but how can he ever have that here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well a loose flop peel w/ Qs and he is closing the action. The turn is close though. I am a bit befuddled by some good live players ranges in this spot pf though.

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:55 AM

Re: pay off?
 
or AQc, which makes more sense.

CardSharpCook 11-16-2007 06:56 AM

Re: pay off?
 
actually I take back my previous response. Fold. Ain't nothing that makes sense that you beat. Possible chop, but very unlikely.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 06:57 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]




he cant have KQ given his turn line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

but how can he ever have that here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well a loose flop peel w/ Qs and he is closing the action. The turn is close though. I am a bit befuddled by some good live players ranges in this spot pf though.

[/ QUOTE ]

thing is, when i just call that flop, i likely have exactly AK.

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:59 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Yeah I dont think we win here ever, but the curiosity would kill me. Whatever, I am sure if it is a friend they will just tell you later.

vmacosta 11-16-2007 08:11 AM

Re: pay off?
 
KTs, QTs, and AQo all sound about right. {hands that you beat} don't.

Sailboats 11-16-2007 08:22 AM

Re: pay off?
 
QT is the only hand i can really put him on... i guess i have to see it... call.

ProfessorBen 11-16-2007 08:33 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Schneids always has you beat here. Tell him to go play 1k/2k and that'll you'll buy more action than normal so that'll he'll leave. +EV in so many ways.

You are ahead of exactly AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here which he is always 4-betting here preflop because it would be more fun to get HU with you. He is not bluffing into a bad player when it also looks like that you may also have AQ here.

Fold.

Schneids 11-16-2007 09:07 AM

Re: pay off?
 
You beat a bluffing 88 but the way you played your hand postflop should make it pretty obvious you have exactly AK or AQ so an 88 shouldn't ever be trying to bluff you (let alone the UTG player as well) so from that logically it should become a fold because AQ is much more likely than AK (in his hand range) both mathematically and due to the fact he didn't 4 bet preflop, so basically you're calling for a chop best case.

SNOWBALL 11-16-2007 09:16 AM

Re: pay off?
 
The only thing u beat is Asxs
Oh wait...

StrictlyStrategy 11-16-2007 09:19 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Raise the damn flop.

SNOWBALL 11-16-2007 09:23 AM

Re: pay off?
 
so why did you call the flop instead of raising?

ProfessorBen 11-16-2007 09:48 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Raising the flop here is terrible.

There are no outs we can clear up as BB is never folding KJ/AJ/QT here. The only hands better hands that we get to fold, TT/88, are already beat by the UTGs range. The other hands that we fold suffer from domination against our hand(AQ/AT/KQ) that we want to 1. Pad our flush draw equity for us and 2. Pay off if we spike an Ace, King or flush.

Also this flop gets 3-bet alot, meaning our equity is poor because villain has a redraw even if we hit our flush or pair.

Edit: I spoke with CSC and I don't think a flop raise is as bad as I originally make it out to be depending on just how spazzy UTG is. I still feel his range is strongly weighted towards Js, 9s, and other pairs he's never folding. If you assume those to be correct, a flop raise is terrible.

KitCloudkicker 11-16-2007 10:11 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
so why would you raise the flop instead of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

cgrohman 11-16-2007 10:12 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ and it will likely clear up his hand range for us. Also, especially against bad players, it will get checked to us on the turn if we raise. Plus, we have a [censored] of equity with 2 overs and the nut draw.

KitCloudkicker 11-16-2007 10:12 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? why is this a good thing?

StrictlyStrategy 11-16-2007 10:19 AM

Re: pay off?
 
If we get a free card ever a flop raise is awesome. If BB folds the same hand as us a flop raise is superb. Anything better than out hand is also really good.

James. 11-16-2007 10:28 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? why is this a good thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't care what he has, if the BB is schneids i want him out of the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Joe Tall 11-16-2007 12:41 PM

Re: pay off?
 
He has to have AQ. He has to.

*TT* 11-16-2007 01:56 PM

Re: pay off?
 
am I blind? Villains hand looks like precisely AcQc, there are no other hands that play this way pre-or post flop that I can think of. I dont even think he would call with AKo on the turn, I dont expect to see a chop happening. Mid-game I dont know what I would do, but away from the game reading the hand history where I can take time to think about it this is an easy fold.

hoppscot22 11-16-2007 03:03 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]

BB here is an exceptional player.

[/ QUOTE ]

cant be schneids

Captain R 11-16-2007 03:46 PM

Re: pay off?
 
Doesn't he have like JJ/TT/99 here like always??? Or am I retarded?

Just read the other responses, yes AcQc makes sense too.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 04:50 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

BB here is an exceptional player.

[/ QUOTE ]

cant be schneids

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

*TT* 11-16-2007 04:53 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

BB here is an exceptional player.

[/ QUOTE ]

cant be AK or KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

DeathDonkey 11-16-2007 06:43 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the damn flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. Simple principle of increasing equity by getting the BB to fold a mid pocket pair, and trying for either a free card or betting the best hand depending on what happens. I'm pretty damn passive against donkers but this is a good spot to raise because AK is one of the worst hands we'll have on this flop in our range to raise and oh yeah we have the nut flush draw just in case.

-DeathDonkey

PokerBob 11-16-2007 07:00 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the damn flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am getting 3bet here just about always.

Munchkin Mayor 11-16-2007 07:13 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the damn flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am getting 3bet here just about always.

[/ QUOTE ]

By whom? Is this really a bad thing? I guess I don't get why you played this hand so passively.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 07:15 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't get why you played this hand so passively.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like getting money in bad.

Munchkin Mayor 11-16-2007 07:35 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't get why you played this hand so passively.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like getting money in bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two overcards and the nut flush draw seems like a pretty good flop for your hand. You are probably way ahead. Your raise either gets BB out or he calls and you get a little more information about his hand. And you probably take control of the turn. I say this knowing that I don't play as sophisticated a game as do you (I mean this sincerely, no sarcasm intended).

The river is interesting. Because you are now getting 10+:1, against an "exceptional player" who is smart enough to bet out on this scare card because he knows you are good enough to fold TPTK. I would call but I would lose the hand because people know that I would not lay down TPTK, therefore they wouldn't be betting into me unless they had a queen, at least. If you called, you might win, cuz they have a different hand against you than me...this makes sense???

Having said this I realize that, even against you, the player is probably donking with a huge hand, 90% of the time.

God bless.

PokerBob 11-16-2007 07:51 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't get why you played this hand so passively.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like getting money in bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two overcards and the nut flush draw seems like a pretty good flop for your hand. You are probably way ahead. Your raise either gets BB out or he calls and you get a little more information about his hand. And you probably take control of the turn. I say this knowing that I don't play as sophisticated a game as do you (I mean this sincerely, no sarcasm intended).

The river is interesting. Because you are now getting 10+:1, against an "exceptional player" who is smart enough to bet out on this scare card because he knows you are good enough to fold TPTK. I would call but I would lose the hand because people know that I would not lay down TPTK, therefore they wouldn't be betting into me unless they had a queen, at least. If you called, you might win, cuz they have a different hand against you than me...this makes sense???

Having said this I realize that, even against you, the player is probably donking with a huge hand, 90% of the time.

God bless.

[/ QUOTE ]

the major question on the river is "how on earth does he ever have a queen in his hand?"

Schneids 11-16-2007 07:54 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
the major question on the river is "how on earth does he ever have a queen in his hand?"

[/ QUOTE ]

How on earth do you play AQ if you are in the BB this hand?

PokerBob 11-16-2007 07:54 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the major question on the river is "how on earth does he ever have a queen in his hand?"

[/ QUOTE ]

How on earth do you play BB if you are in the BB this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends what i got.

Schneids 11-16-2007 07:56 PM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the major question on the river is "how on earth does he ever have a queen in his hand?"

[/ QUOTE ]

How on earth do you play BB if you are in the BB this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends what i got.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edited my post though you already know what the Q was. Dick.

WMB 11-16-2007 08:23 PM

Re: pay off?
 
BB definately has a bigger hand than 88 here by betting into 2 live players with that board. AQc makes sense or maybe a slow, weirdly played monster. Regardless, when he bets out he is expecting to be called by someone. The only hand you can hope for is AKc, which is possible. How possible? I'm not sure but if you feel he can't have that hand here don't call. I probably pay off here, given pot size your not making a big mistake if any


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