50NL: Value Betting 99
 

BB was 29/12/1 over 40 hands or so.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $50
SB: $51.05
BB: $70.10
UTG: $56.90
CO: $66.10

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6

River: ($21.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>,

If you like it, great. If you don't, what is the worst hand you value bet on this river?

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

since i dont like the line, i like a ck behind turn 6 bet on river

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

looks fine

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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since i dont like the line, i like a ck behind turn 6 bet on river

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Why do you like checking behind on the turn? Seems to me he's peeling w/ overs or some type of draw almost always.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

I don't hate it...

However, I can't think of any hand in his range that he would call with, so I think checking behind is probably more +EV, because it prevents him from pushing you out with the odd river CR bluff, or, heaven forbid, CR'ing you with a flush that got there.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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I don't hate it...

However, I can't think of any hand in his range that he would call with, so I think checking behind is probably more +EV, because it prevents him from pushing you out with the odd river CR bluff, or, heaven forbid, CR'ing you with a flush that got there.

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So what do you bet with on the river?

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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I don't hate it...

However, I can't think of any hand in his range that he would call with, so I think checking behind is probably more +EV, because it prevents him from pushing you out with the odd river CR bluff, or, heaven forbid, CR'ing you with a flush that got there.

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So what do you bet with on the river?

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That's a good question, because I think in the spot, your 99 might as well be the nuts. (So the question then becomes- if I would bet with the nuts (obv), why am I hesitant to bet with 99?)

I need to think about it a bit more.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

very well played.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

I play it the same, but I'm more lucky than good, so take that for what its worth.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

Let me ask you something first... although it's unlikely, what's your plan if villain pops you here?

Let's say villain check raises to $32. Are you folding 99?

I think if we can work our way backwards to figure out which hands we won't fold to a CR, we can probably narrow down the hands we should be betting with: mid-flushes, a straight, a set of 6s, etc....

I could be totally wrong with this line of thinking, so beware....

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

octave,

he's calling down with basically any 8, and prob something like 77.

getting c/r on the river is such an easy fold simply because people just don't c/r the river after c/c twice with a worse hand at these stakes.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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very well played.

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Curious what hands you can put villain on (given the way that hand played) that will call in this spot? I just don't see him calling with much. A weak flush maybe?

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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octave,

he's calling down with basically any 8, and prob something like 77.

getting c/r on the river is such an easy fold simply because people just don't c/r the river after c/c twice with a worse hand at these stakes.

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Yeah, i drop 99 with the swiftness if I get popped here.

I considered 8x, but I would have expected him to donk the flop with the 8x hands he'd call with pre, no?

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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[ QUOTE ]
octave,

he's calling down with basically any 8, and prob something like 77.

getting c/r on the river is such an easy fold simply because people just don't c/r the river after c/c twice with a worse hand at these stakes.

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Yeah, i drop 99 with the swiftness if I get popped here.

I considered 8x, but I would have expected him to donk the flop with the 8x hands he'd call with pre, no?

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meh that's a pretty big assumption.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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meh that's a pretty big assumption.

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On a side, would you expect a 29/12 player to re-pop 77 out of the BB when 5 handed?

(I don't use a HUD, just trying to get my head around ranges/proclivities.)

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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meh that's a pretty big assumption.

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On a side, would you expect a 29/12 player to re-pop 77 out of the BB when 5 handed?

(I don't use a HUD, just trying to get my head around ranges/proclivities.)

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no, not really. it's tough to say without more reads... I know some 16/12 players that 3 bet a ton and some 40/20 maniacs that 3 bet very rarely.

Re: 50NL: Value Betting 99
 

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no, not really. it's tough to say without more reads... I know some 16/12 players that 3 bet a ton and some 40/20 maniacs that 3 bet very rarely.

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Thanks- I know a lot of people are comfortable saying "24/18/2" or whatever, and basing everything off of the numbers, but I tend to feel that while it's directionally accurate, it's still a bit of a vacuum