KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

Sorry no reads. I had been tight (obv)

PokerStars Game #13267274625: Tournament #66640482, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/11/15 - 22:49:26 (ET)
Table '66640482 97' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: WiLDmAn75 (26115 in chips)
Seat 2: nargnice (11190 in chips)
Seat 3: dicknastyjr (4480 in chips)
Seat 4: HpNOtiC (5462 in chips)
Seat 5: elio82 (20987 in chips)
Seat 7: diegel (9180 in chips)
Seat 8: ulty_dude (9535 in chips)
Seat 9: JSchnett (9011 in chips)
WiLDmAn75: posts the ante 10
nargnice: posts the ante 10
dicknastyjr: posts the ante 10
HpNOtiC: posts the ante 10
elio82: posts the ante 10
diegel: posts the ante 10
ulty_dude: posts the ante 10
JSchnett: posts the ante 10
diegel: posts small blind 100
ulty_dude: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JSchnett [Kh Kc]
JSchnett: raises 400 to 600
WiLDmAn75: folds
nargnice: folds
dicknastyjr: folds
HpNOtiC: folds
elio82: folds
diegel: calls 500
ulty_dude: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc 8d 2h]
diegel: checks
JSchnett: bets 1000
diegel: calls 1000
*** TURN *** [Tc 8d 2h] [Ah]
diegel: checks
JSchnett: checks
*** RIVER *** [Tc 8d 2h Ah] [3s]
diegel: bets 3480 (exactly pot)
JSchnett:


Generally I think that these bets are for value but I had trouble putting him on a hand that he would play this way. I don't think hes calling in the sb with A2/A8, AT could be a possiblilty but seems strange for him to c/c the flop with TPTK.

Could be 22/88 even TT but I highly doubt it is AJ/AQ considering it would be a terrible valuebet and they would have had to call on the flop.

thoughts?

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I fold pretty quick. Though there aren't many hands that you are losing to, there are even fewer hands that can be bluffing here.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I guess u have to fold w/o a read. However, given that you checked turn to keep pot small, you essentially induce a bluff a significant percentage of time here on river. Would you call if he bet half the bot?

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I'd fold with no read and I really hate folding especially when I play a strong hand in a way which will underrep my hand and induce bluffs.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]

no.....no..........no................no

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I would never bet the turn.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]

no.....no..........no................no

[/ QUOTE ]

why is that so bad (serious Q), if you bet like 1400-1800 here (basically an amount you'd call on the river), why not bet here so that if he calls and leads river you're 100% not good. most often after you've fired twice villain is much more likely to check river which will allow you to get to showdown cheaper.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

fold, you're beat, and I never fold ever ever ever

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

he can bluff the river if you check the turn. You can get c/red on the turn by a bluff/ semibluff.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

i call if im a little tilted/bored. Fold otherwise.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]

no.....no..........no................no

[/ QUOTE ]

why is that so bad (serious Q), if you bet like 1400-1800 here (basically an amount you'd call on the river), why not bet here so that if he calls and leads river you're 100% not good. most often after you've fired twice villain is much more likely to check river which will allow you to get to showdown cheaper.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need some help with this too. It seems like checking the turn on a scare card often induces a bluff which creates a difficult decision on the river. To me it doesn't seem bad to bet/fold the turn & check the river.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

bet turn it's a best way here i think.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
he can bluff the river if you check the turn. You can get c/red on the turn by a bluff/ semibluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm OK inducing a bluff when I have reads...readless I prefer to keep the betting lead. If I get bluff checkraised on the turn its a pretty sick spot...villain would have to put me on exactly JJ-KK for this to work and it would seem like a big leak for me to continue.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with that is a lot of the time you'd bet that turn with air to rep the Ace, and hope hands like J10 Q10 78s fold. By checking behind you're basically telling your opp. you either hit the Ace, have a pair JJ-KK, or are just completely giving up on the hand. It is a big mistake in many tourney players games to not bet scare cards on the turn when you have a hand that is likely still best but wasn't improved by the card in question.

In other words, the player in the sb would definitely expect you to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn when the A hits, but if you only do it when you either hit the Ace or have nothing, you become pretty exploitable and predictable. Not to say checking behind on the turn is a bad play, but a bet should be considered at least sometimes here, and you do often avoid being bluffed on the river as gobbo said as well.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I think betting the turn is a pretty large mistake

like
REALLY
large

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with that is a lot of the time you'd bet that turn with air to rep the Ace, and hope hands like J10 Q10 78s fold. By checking behind you're basically telling your opp. you either hit the Ace, have a pair JJ-KK, or are just completely giving up on the hand. It is a big mistake in many tourney players games to not bet scare cards on the turn when you have a hand that is likely still best but wasn't improved by the card in question.

In other words, the player in the sb would definitely expect you to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn when the A hits, but if you only do it when you either hit the Ace or have nothing, you become pretty exploitable and predictable. Not to say checking behind on the turn is a bad play, but a bet should be considered at least sometimes here, and you do often avoid being bluffed on the river as gobbo said as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

AGame, you're assuming a random player is capable of handreading and basically some relatively solid thinking

.....

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with that is a lot of the time you'd bet that turn with air to rep the Ace, and hope hands like J10 Q10 78s fold. By checking behind you're basically telling your opp. you either hit the Ace, have a pair JJ-KK, or are just completely giving up on the hand. It is a big mistake in many tourney players games to not bet scare cards on the turn when you have a hand that is likely still best but wasn't improved by the card in question.

In other words, the player in the sb would definitely expect you to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn when the A hits, but if you only do it when you either hit the Ace or have nothing, you become pretty exploitable and predictable. Not to say checking behind on the turn is a bad play, but a bet should be considered at least sometimes here, and you do often avoid being bluffed on the river as gobbo said as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

AGame, you're assuming a random player is capable of handreading and basically some relatively solid thinking

.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I guess that's true, and maybe I'm thinking too much like a cash gm player and not a tourney player. (I think someone like cts would agree with me here and maybe not JohnnyBax) And as I said, checking behind is fine and probably a default line, but I think a bet on the turn can certainly be rationalized and would highly consider against a thinking player.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
AGame, you're assuming a random player is capable of handreading and basically some relatively solid thinking

.....

[/ QUOTE ]
Also, being exploitable/predictable in the nightly $100k isn't that big of a consideration.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with that is a lot of the time you'd bet that turn with air to rep the Ace, and hope hands like J10 Q10 78s fold. By checking behind you're basically telling your opp. you either hit the Ace, have a pair JJ-KK, or are just completely giving up on the hand. It is a big mistake in many tourney players games to not bet scare cards on the turn when you have a hand that is likely still best but wasn't improved by the card in question.

In other words, the player in the sb would definitely expect you to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn when the A hits, but if you only do it when you either hit the Ace or have nothing, you become pretty exploitable and predictable. Not to say checking behind on the turn is a bad play, but a bet should be considered at least sometimes here, and you do often avoid being bluffed on the river as gobbo said as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

AGame, you're assuming a random player is capable of handreading and basically some relatively solid thinking

.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I guess that's true, and maybe I'm thinking too much like a cash gm player and not a tourney player. (I think someone like cts would agree with me here and maybe not JohnnyBax) And as I said, checking behind is fine and probably a default line, but I think a bet on the turn can certainly be rationalized and would highly consider against a thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%, but its important to know that the average tournament random (and even a large chunk of the tournament regulars) dont think at this level

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

fold.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

fold, he would have bet turn first if he wanted to represent A and bluff you off.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I like the turn check and think river is close, wouldnt mind a call.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

he'd have to be good enough to turn hands like 99 into a bluff to even consider calling here. Im certainly not giving a random credit for that.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line. Many villains are going to auto-call a continuation bet on that T-high flop, figuring you missed with AK-AJ, etc. When the A comes on the turn, fire a bet an amount you would be willing to call on the river. If the villain raises or pots the river, you know you are beat.

As played, since the turn was checked (which is also okay), I don't see how you can call that river bet.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]You mean blockbet for cheaper showdown? I think a stupid blockbet like 1/3 pot would be ok on the turn

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

u have enough of a stack that i fold.
i dont think you are good enough here 33% of the time.

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

I don't know how I got brought into this, but I check the turn and fold the river.


Bax

Re: KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how I got brought into this, but I check the turn and fold the river.


Bax

[/ QUOTE ]

is there a bet size on the river that you would call to pick off a bluff / thin value bet with a pair < KK? obviously for a min-bet you'd call right? 1/2 pot? 3/4?

what heuristic do you use to determine hand strength at each step in a line such as the above?