400NL Argh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
 

Villain is 18/8/1.6 over 100 hands or so and more or less unknown.

Ongame Poker No Limit Hold'Em, $2/$4 (8 handed).

SB ($394)
BB ($339)
UTG ($405)
Villain/UTG+1 ($394)
MP1 ($340)
MP2 ($377)
CO ($188)
Hero/BTN ($465)


Preflop: Hero is BTN with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG folds, Villain raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, Villain calls.

Flop: ($86) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $70, Villain calls.

Turn: ($226) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets $284 and is all-in. Hero?

WTF? Up until this push on the turn, I figured Villain for a pair in the 99-KK range. I thought AK was less likely for obvious reasons, although clearly not impossible.

Anyway, I’m left with two moves on the turn, but which one’s better? Does the fact I don’t have the Ac make a difference?

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

Call, preflop sucks.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call, preflop sucks.

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Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

PF sucked cos it was basically a min raise. His range to call a min raise is huge, and it includes SC's and small PP's, which could have u crushed at this point.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call, preflop sucks.

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Raise more preflop.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something...

Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards...

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something...

Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards...

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I don't think your avg. villian goes broke with 99 here on a 2,7,8 flop when you minraise pre.

If you minraise pre and are going to felt any flop and it only costs him $28 then he should call with anything he raises PF.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something...

Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards...

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Usually triple or quadruple their bet size. I think you're underestimating his raising range. 18/8 probably raises some small pocket pairs in EP. Suited connectors are less likely, but big suited cards are quite possible. 100 hands is not a very large sample, either. FWIW, I think you're toast on the turn, although smaller overpairs with one club could be in his range.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

Think of it like this: Your preflop raise is $22 to call and the effective remaining stacks are $354. In that case I'm taking a flop with all pairs, all suited connectors and suited gappers and probably non-suited connectors. Actually there are few hands I'm folding TBH.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why...



[/ QUOTE ]

Your 3 bet is to small because it gives the villain a chance to call with a large range, in hopes he will stack you. Your 3 bet should have been somewhere between $60-$70

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

The preflop raise is a little small IMO also. However, that isn't the question you put out in this hand, so I want to focus on the original question...do you call in this spot?

I think this is a pretty easy and straightforward fold.

We really don't beat much and have no chance to improve (only an Ah really helps us safely). What hands is a villain making this bet with... he's either betting big to protect his hand (a made small flush that he doesn't want you to draw against). Or is betting with a large amount of outs against us (around 13+ with a club draw and some pair/piece of the board).

It is highly unlikely he would bet a pair here without at least having the club...and even the 2c is good enough.

So even when we are ahead now, we can expect to lose 1 in 4. Because we can assume we are losing every time we are behind (due to the in ability to improve), we have to be good 2/3 of the time for this to be a break even bet.

Me personally I think it is more accurate that we are behind 2/3 of the time here as opposed to ahead 2/3 of the time.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

Very nice analysis, mate. I basically agree and, although I'm not sure I managed to get to quite that level of detail in the 20 seconds allowed, I folded.

p.s. Note to self: Increase re-raise size to decrease the number of difficult decisions like this.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

As you now see you could make your post-flop decisions so much easier here by raising to say $65 preflop. If villain calls there is around $134 in the pot on the flop and around $330 left to play for. Assuming you continuation bet for around $100 (which you should) then you have a no brainer call if he pushes because you are well beyond the commitment threshold.

If he pushes, the math of it is that you have to call around $230 to play for a final pot of approximately $790 thus you have to win showdown 29% of the time to break even. No problem at all with AA played this way and you don't even have to get to a difficult turn card before the money is in the middle [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

This is still a call guys. The only hand that makes sense that beats us is TT. Flush draws are jamming the flop. Sets don't play like this. You are looking a pair with a club here almost all the time. If any of you can provide me with a reasonable range that says we are beat then feel free, until then its a call. I'd make it $52-56 preflop.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

I don't really think this is a "reasonable" range, but it does beat us. You're getting 1.8:1 on the call, so you need about 36% equity, and you only have 20% against this range:

Board: 3c 5s 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.102% 18.89% 01.21% 482 31.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 79.898% 78.68% 01.21% 2008 31.00 { KK+, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, TT, 55, 33-22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, A4s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, 64s, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, A4o, 64o }

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

Villains shove range here is pretty big imo because your line screams AA/KK. Id probly call and deffinately 3bet larger pre.

Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
 

call