AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

Villain is 14.8/5/.79 over only 280 hands. I raise PF, follow-up with a CB, get called, then hit my K on the turn. Is my turn bet so weak that I induce villain to call with a flush draw? As played, do I call the river? With such a low aggression factor, does villain always have a hand that beats TPTK here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($60.90)
Hero ($49.50)
CO ($22.20)
Button ($10.60)
SB ($41.30)
BB ($12.95)
UTG ($49.85)
UTG+1 ($53.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
BB calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds</font>, Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($6) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($14) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets $8</font>, UTG calls $8.

River: ($30) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)</font>
UTG bets $15</font>, Hero ???.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

Its weak enough that you can afford to call the small river bet. I would have bet bigger on the turn though...

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

Raise more preflop, there is 2 limpers + blind poster (SB).

Turn bet should be larger. As played, I would fold river. Yes river bet is a very weak but I don't believe this passive villian betting without 2p or flush.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its weak enough that you can afford to call the small river bet. I would have bet bigger on the turn though...

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agreed, u give too good a price on the turn, bet nearer the pot

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more preflop, there is 2 limpers + blind poster (SB).

Turn bet should be larger. As played, I would fold river. Yes river bet is a very weak but I don't believe this passive villian betting without 2p or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might bet a bit more on this flop too.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

I doubt you are good here enough to merit a call especially against a passive villain. and as everyone else said more on flop and turn.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

Villian is nitty and passive. I think his bet is most likely a value bet. I wouldn't make this call even getting the 3:1 odds.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

pot flop and pot turn. as played fold to the donkbet which appears to be a value bet

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

Bet $10-12 on the turn. As played, call the river.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

villain's AF is .79. For everyone advocating a call on the turn here, what do you think he could have on the river that he is betting and we beat with TPTK? Based on his AF I'm pretty sure this is an easy fold.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

[ QUOTE ]
villain's AF is .79. For everyone advocating a call on the turn here, what do you think he could have on the river that he is betting and we beat with TPTK? Based on his AF I'm pretty sure this is an easy fold.

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I just don't think an AF read on a villain after only 200-some odd hands is going to be accurate enough to fold TPTK when we are getting 3 to 1 here. I see weak/passive players like this guy make small river bets for all kinds of reasons--as his version of a blocking bet with a mid PP (even stuff like TT, JJ he is not raising preflop)or A9, as a random bluff, whatever. Sure, a bet here from a hand that is lower than a pair of kings isn't a logical play, but he is likely a bad player, and bad players make bets all the time that don't make sense from a competent player's perspective.

Do I think we're good here most of the time? No. But we don't need to be. So I make the call. FWIW.

Re: AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?
 

At the time, I had the same thought as PenguinExpress -- that 200 some odd hands isn't enough to really know if villain is a super-passive. This was the first hand we tangled on this session and he was pretty aggressive the rest of the session so those stats may have been misleading but its all I had at the time. I ended up folding, but had a really hard time with the decision. Had I bet more on the flop and turn, villain may have folded or I would have had a clearer decision.

I appreciate everyone's thoughts and responses!