Who is betting against Hillary?
 

Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'd say Hillary is > 1/4 to win.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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www.intrade.com

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Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'd say Hillary is > 1/4 to win.

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Easily.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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If I'm remembering my Freakonomics correctly, they stated that Female and Black candidates tended to poll 3-4% higher than they actually received at election. Even considering this she'll probably win.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'm short Hillary on intrade. She is not a coin flip to be president.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm remembering my Freakonomics correctly, they stated that Female and Black candidates tended to poll 3-4% higher than they actually received at election. Even considering this she'll probably win.

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The nomination or the general? Because she's not as close to getting the nomination as she looks. Her Iowa numbers are Twinkie soft and the media appears to be turning on her.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

I think your bet is +EV. What would be even more +EV would be if you bet me $1000 giving me 2.5:1. Are you interested? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

If you seriously want 2.5 to 1 on $1000 bet that Hillary is the next president PM me please.

-TheActionKid

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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Think you should offer your friend $2500 now and save paying him $3000 later. Bad bet.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm remembering my Freakonomics correctly, they stated that Female and Black candidates tended to poll 3-4% higher than they actually received at election. Even considering this she'll probably win.

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This was true in the past however recent elections have proven this to be wrong now.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

I've got $500 even money vs a friend that she's not going to be our next President.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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We should match you and Iron up for some kind of prop-betting Special Olympics.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

[/ QUOTE ]

We should match you and Iron up for some kind of prop-betting Special Olympics.

[/ QUOTE ] shh you're ruining my action [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

[/ QUOTE ]

We should match you and Iron up for some kind of prop-betting Special Olympics.

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I think I'm 1-1 lifetime in political prop betting. I won $40 off Elliot on Dem control of the Senate last year and I lost a $10 bet with my dad that Kerry would win. I suspected that he would try to maximize the mileage out of the bet so I mailed him cash instead of a check which would have my name and signature on it. He framed the bill.

Outside of politics, my record is much, much worse.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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Holy shi'ite this is a phenomenally bad bet.

Edit: I misread the OP. I was thinking Democratic Nomination, not president. It's not a *terrible* bet, but I think she's basically 50-50 for Pres. Maybe 3:2 against.