My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I was discussing his progress w/ some friends today (none of whom are Redskins fans, several of which are Redskins haters) and none of them are too impressed w/ him. His career statistics: 16 starts, 3,000 yards, 57% completion percentage, 19 TDs, 13 INTs, 78.4 passer rating.

They all said they'd rather have Eli Manning (whose passer rating through his first 16 games is slightly worse than that of JC) if they had to choose a QB to build a team around (the debate was only Eli versus JC, no other QBs were in the discussion). I said that we should let JC have as many starts as Eli has had and then we'd reevaluate. I'd love to get some opinions on this, especially from those that have seen a fair amount of film on both of these guys.

Anyway, somehow it bastardized into me making this bet: If Jason Campbell is the Redskins opening day starter in 2010, my buddy has to buy a Campbell jersey and wear it every Sunday of that football season. I get to keep the jersey after the season is over. If Campbell is not the starter due to his ineffectiveness, I have to wear a jersey of my friend's choosing (jerseys of Michael Vick, O.J. Simpson, Pacman Jones, etc. notwithstanding) on every Sunday of that football season. The bet is a push if Campbell is on the bench due to injury or if his progress between now and then is slowed by a major injury (torn ACL/MCL, torn rotator cuff, etc.).

Ready, set, go.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I assume you win if he's starting for a non-Redskin team?

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I believe I do, but I should definitely clarify that with him. Thanks.

What do you think of the JC/Eli debate? Thanks.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe I do, but I should definitely clarify that with him. Thanks.

What do you think of the JC/Eli debate? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fairly close but JC > Eli prob.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

hmm, too close to call imo.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it seems like a fun bet to me as well. But my buddy is not allowed to choose a Pacman Jones/O.J. Simpson/Mike Vick jersey.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

KUBIAK really likes Campbell. I think you're in good shape, actually.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
KUBIAK really likes Campbell. I think you're in good shape, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is KUBIAK? Gary?

I really like Campbell too. I think that the coaching staff has been holding him back and I think he'd be performing better if he was given more control over the offense.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it seems like a fun bet to me as well. But my buddy is not allowed to choose a Pacman Jones/O.J. Simpson/Mike Vick jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's so ridiculous that Pacman Jones(who is just an [censored]) somehow managed to get grouped in with someone who drowns dogs and someone who killed two people.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Heh, no, not actually Gary Kubiak. KUBIAK is the projection system that Football Outsiders uses; they're a relatively new football performance analysis website.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Campbell is solid...good bet.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I think you're spot on about Campbell, and I think your bet is a good one for you. I also think you're underraing Eli though.

99,574 and counting

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
KUBIAK really likes Campbell. I think you're in good shape, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not KUBIAK, it's the QB Projection System. But, yeah, it likes Campbell.

/nit

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is KUBIAK? Gary?

[/ QUOTE ]

A statistical projection model of the type that you hate, if memory serves. Anyway, Campbell's college pedigree and the development history of previous, similar NFL QBs suggests that Campbell will be a good QB.

That said, I don't know if you're +EV on your bet. Even assuming Campbell will probably be better than Manning, a lot can happen in two and a half years, and Campbell doesn't have the bonus-baby mega-contract that forces the team to stick with him like Manning does.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heh, no, not actually Gary Kubiak. KUBIAK is the projection system that Football Outsiders uses; they're a relatively new football performance analysis website.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is, obviously, named after Gary Kubiak. I don't think it doubles as an acronym like PECOTA.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I don't watch a whole lot of NFC East, but I'd rather have Eli. By far.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

As for the actual bet, I would say that you're a solid favorite. First round QBs have to be pretty awful for their teams to give up on them - look at how long David Carr lasted, and Alex Smith is still starting. Campbell is a lot better than both of them. If he doesn't improve you could lose, but if he does improve, you're a lock to win/push the bet.

As for Campbell vs. Eli, I think Campbell will be better. Much better. Eli is basically the exact same quarterback he was in 2005 and 2006. There's no improvement going on there. If Campbell improves, he will end up way ahead of Eli. Hell, you can make the argument that he's already better than Eli. DPAR thinks so.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it seems like a fun bet to me as well. But my buddy is not allowed to choose a Pacman Jones/O.J. Simpson/Mike Vick jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's so ridiculous that Pacman Jones(who is just an [censored]) somehow managed to get grouped in with someone who drowns dogs and someone who killed two people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to hijack my own thread but....it's not ridiculous.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

So does anyone feel like telling me about KUBIAK? Specifically, how I can access it and why it likes Campbell, or what it says about him? Thanks much.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
So does anyone feel like telling me about KUBIAK? Specifically, how I can access it and why it likes Campbell, or what it says about him? Thanks much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go to footballoutsiders.com and search the site. You should be going to FO anyway if you like football and you're on 2p2.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

No way he gets benched before 2010. Maybe halfway through 2010, but even Ramsey had a few years as the starter.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So does anyone feel like telling me about KUBIAK? Specifically, how I can access it and why it likes Campbell, or what it says about him? Thanks much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go to footballoutsiders.com and search the site. You should be going to FO anyway if you like football and you're on 2p2.

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to go to FO, 2+2 brings it to me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I'm pretty sure there are no KUBIAK projections on the site, except those that are mentioned in passing. You have to buy the book for the full set.

Also in the book: their college QB projection system, which is actually what Tyler should be interested in (KUBIAK is mostly for fantasy football purposes, and only forecasts one year at a time). Before the season, the projection system predicted that Campbell would accrue 59.4 DPAR in 2007, and about 84.2 DPAR/year during his peak. Look here to put that into context. Basically, they expect him to be a Top 10 type of QB: good, and very good during his peak, but never elite.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Heh, no, not actually Gary Kubiak. KUBIAK is the projection system that Football Outsiders uses; they're a relatively new football performance analysis website.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is, obviously, named after Gary Kubiak. I don't think it doubles as an acronym like PECOTA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, but I'm not too sure that the actual Gary Kubiak has gone on record as saying he likes Jason Campbell.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

It does double as an acronym.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it seems like a fun bet to me as well. But my buddy is not allowed to choose a Pacman Jones/O.J. Simpson/Mike Vick jersey.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's so ridiculous that Pacman Jones(who is just an [censored]) somehow managed to get grouped in with someone who drowns dogs and someone who killed two people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to hijack my own thread but....it's not ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Some people would say that beating up strippers and shooting people is worse than killing dogs.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Good bet, Campbell is better.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I like your side. Not a skins fan, but I live in Northern Virginia, so I have probably seen everyone one of Campbell's games. I like him a lot more then Eli and once the Skins either get new playcallers (esp in Red Zone) or they just let him open up, I think Campbell is going to be a very good, consistent QB.

Note. If Gibbs leaves after this year and the Skins start to rotate Coaches and Coordinators on the whims of Snyder again, you might be in trouble..

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]


Yeah. Some people would say that beating up strippers and shooting people is worse than killing dogs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I didn't know he was convicted yet.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

re: Kubiak hijack-

KUBIAK is only their fantasy stats projections, Lewin's projection system is different. regardless, they like JC

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Yeah. Some people would say that beating up strippers and shooting people is worse than killing dogs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I didn't know he was convicted yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was OJ convicted?

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Note. If Gibbs leaves after this year and the Skins start to rotate Coaches and Coordinators on the whims of Snyder again, you might be in trouble..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I have thought about this and it has me worried.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Campbell looked really good to me Sunday (I only got to see the 2nd half.) Gibbs needed to let him throw it inside the 10 on that one late drive, and his receivers dropped a couple of medium to long passes that were perfectly placed.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Your friends like to make stupid bets eh? That Lions one was good for you too.

I am not a JC lover but this seems good and if you lose all you have to do is wear a goofy jersey--if not you get a rad jersey you like? Seems like a good bet.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your friends like to make stupid bets eh? That Lions one was good for you too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope... his friends are just smarter about football than he is.

If you look at the numbers, Brunell was having a better year last year when they pulled him, than Campbell is having this year. He can't manage the game either. Sure, some of that comes with experience, but he's already started almost a year's worth of games.

They call it the NotForLong league because teams want to win NOW. Not later. Especially the Redskins. You can look at their free agency signings and tell they aren't in rebuilding mode. Their in WIN NOW mode.

Also, this is JC's third (or fourth) year in the league. Palmer was amazing his third year in the league... and he sat on the bench for a full year behind Kitna. That doesn't bode well for Campbell. Will the Skins resign him after his five year contract if he's not winning and improving? And, his rookie contract was worth 20 million. That's nothing compared to what the Skins have tied up in defense and WRs.

JC will start next year and the hunt will be on for a new QB after next year in the offseason. He'll probably be traded or benched. I also wouldn't be surprised if they drafted someone this year in the later rounds.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
It does double as an acronym.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know what it is? I don't remember that from the book and don't see it online anywhere (admittedly I didn't look very hard).

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your friends like to make stupid bets eh? That Lions one was good for you too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope... his friends are just smarter about football than he is.

If you look at the numbers, Brunell was having a better year last year when they pulled him, than Campbell is having this year. He can't manage the game either. Sure, some of that comes with experience, but he's already started almost a year's worth of games.

They call it the NotForLong league because teams want to win NOW. Not later. Especially the Redskins. You can look at their free agency signings and tell they aren't in rebuilding mode. Their in WIN NOW mode.

Also, this is JC's third (or fourth) year in the league. Palmer was amazing his third year in the league... and he sat on the bench for a full year behind Kitna. That doesn't bode well for Campbell. Will the Skins resign him after his five year contract if he's not winning and improving? And, his rookie contract was worth 20 million. That's nothing compared to what the Skins have tied up in defense and WRs.

JC will start next year and the hunt will be on for a new QB after next year in the offseason. He'll probably be traded or benched. I also wouldn't be surprised if they drafted someone this year in the later rounds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone will be surprised if we draft a QB in the later rounds this year. We need to develop a young backup (Mark Brunell almost assuredly will not be back next year and Todd Collins may not either) and we need protection in case Campbell does not pan out.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

The skins will draft a QB between rounds 2-4 in the next draft.

I think the bet is about 50/50...

I have made many sports bets against Tyler Durden and it has been +EV for me... I can understand why other people that TD knows would make a bet like this with him because I am sure they have also benefited from previous sports bets/FF against him that they just figure oh what the heck this one is close to a 50/50/push why not.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
The skins will draft a QB between rounds 2-4 in the next draft.

I think the bet is about 50/50...

I have made many sports bets against Tyler Durden and it has been +EV for me... I can understand why other people that TD knows would make a bet like this with him because I am sure they have also benefited from previous sports bets/FF against him that they just figure oh what the heck this one is close to a 50/50/push why not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post, thanks for your insight.

Please please please post the Tom Brady/Chad Pennington claim you made the other night. I am sure the Sporting Events forum would love it.