Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

Villian is 26/21/2 over 136 hands. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a great spot to make this play, no?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

Not really.
If I were him I would fold KK,QQ and TT. But on the other hand I would have checked river with those hands.
When he bets river it is suicide to make this move unless he is one of the guys that don´t realize that they should avoid bet fold lines against thinking TAG:s.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

put villain on a range of hands. pretty sure all of his hands beat you, so break it up like

missed hands that beat me
pairs &lt; A that beat me
pairs of aces that beat me

and figure out how many pairs &lt; A that he needs to fold for this to be a profitable raise.

when putting his range together something that you need to consider is will villain bet this river with pairs less than an ace. this appears to be a good bluff spot because we can rep an ace pretty credibly but for that same reason many players will c/c a hand like JQ or 66, or they won't bet and fold to a raise. a good hand reader will know that you likely have a lot of draws in your range after the flop and turn as well as Ax hands


if villain can let go of ace high I think a flop or turn raise is in order

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

if you haven't done anything silly vs. him so far i think it's fine to do this. your bluff needs to work 2 times out of 9 so i think it's probably slightly +EV. but even if he calls and you lose, he will be more likely to pay you off in the future when you have a real hand and he will also be more likely to check the river against you out of position allowing you to value own him.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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if you haven't done anything silly vs. him so far i think it's fine to do this. your bluff needs to work 2 times out of 9 so i think it's probably slightly +EV. but even if he calls and you lose, he will be more likely to pay you off in the future when you have a real hand and he will also be more likely to check the river against you out of position allowing you to value own him.

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Firstly our odds is 7.20:2. Secondly what hands would you bet/fold on river if you were him?
If I were villain I wouldn´t bet much at all.I think even a halfweak pair of aces are better of check/calling since there is a draw heavy board.And if we bet, only the most suspicious players calls our bet with a worse hand.So there isn´t much value in betting.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

What exactly do you think he's bet/folding here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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Firstly our odds is 7.20:2.

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which means the bluff needs to work 2 out of 9.2 times.

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Secondly what hands would you bet/fold on river if you were him?


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this depends on how i would view the hero. against a loose passive i would bet/fold anything that beats a jack. if i knew the hero was a tag i'd just check if i didn't have an ace.

but the thing is - it doesn't matter what i'd do, it matters what players that fit the description in the OP do. yes, some players would check their QQ or whatever, but i think many players would just keep betting their whole range because they don't want to show weakness, because they don't know how to respond to a bet if they check, and because there's a chance that they will get paid off by a jack or some low pp.

i guess it's AT+ vs. discounted QQ,KK, and sometimes even lower pocket pairs that are hoping the hero was on a draw or is willing to fold a weak jack. the Ax hands i guess should also be somewhat discounted because he might not always bet the turn UI. do we get 2 out of 9.2? i don't know, maybe not, but i think it's pretty close.

EDIT: oh, and some villains will c/c AT because the flush came in, because they are afraid of a better ace, and because they don't think they get paid off much by worse hands, so AT needs to be discounted even more.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

nh, itd be nicer if the board was a little less drawy though....
A stubborn player would be more likely to call this river with &lt; A, if the board hadnt been so drawy.
At least the club draw came in on the river...

I think a guy with those stats is b/f enough for you to make a profit.
I also think its important to bluff raise in these spots occasionally, so that you can raise for value in similar spots...
Or get it checked to you and get information about their hand..

I also disagree with a lot of peoples estimates ranges for villain here..
I think we have to put some hands like KQ and KT in his range, which will definitly be betting and folding to a river raise.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

no

if you like raising, raise the turn

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

This looks good to me.

Villain should be b/f KK, QQ and maybe betting TT and below, KJ, QJs, JTs, KQ, KT, K9s, K8s.


@ Apanage. Are you really c/c KK and QQ and weak Ax, x&lt;J here against a TAG? If so, unless the TAG is a moron you loose 1 bet close to 100% when you call.

If you check to me on that river I am only betting hands that beat KK but I am calling hands that loose to KK.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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This looks good to me.

Villain should be b/f KK, QQ and maybe betting TT and below, KJ, QJs, JTs, KQ, KT, K9s, K8s.


@ Apanage. Are you really c/c KK and QQ and weak Ax, x&lt;J here against a TAG? If so, unless the TAG is a moron you loose 1 bet close to 100% when you call.

If you check to me on that river I am only betting hands that beat KK but I am calling hands that loose to KK.

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Of course it is so but that is because the river card sucks.It is not like you don´t lose the bet you check/call by bet/folding.
But I think it is as likely to induce a bluff on river as it is that he will call a bet.
What hand can Hero have that you expect to be called with if you bet KK on river?
I can´t see any hand that don´t beat KK that will be willing to call.He obvioulsy hasn´t got a J seen we haven´t heard from him on earlier streets.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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Of course it is so but that is because the river card sucks.It is not like you don´t lose the bet you check/call by bet/folding.


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Where did I say bet&gt;c/c?

My standard reply to you: reread plz.


This hand is not about what you would do but what villain in this hand would do.

c/c sucks from villains point of view when he has a good pp. TAGs in your games might bet worse hands than KK when checked to. But they dont in my games and I am sure that OP wont. c/c costs very close to 1 BB when Hero bets.

But c/f sucks a bit as well as the HERO TAG just might be tilting or decide to bluff bet a low pp. So even if c/f &gt; c/c he is still folding a winner sometimes. This is what makes some TAGs bet KJ, QJ, JT, QQ, KK, TT, 99 because it prevents them getting valueowned when c/c and folding the best hand when c/f.


I am not gonna reply to you again because it is stealing not only my day but also the point of this thread.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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Where did I say bet&gt;c/c?

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By saying that he could bet/fold a number of hands you´re actually saying either that B/f is &gt;&gt; than C/c or that he is not capable of making the best EV decision.

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My standard reply to you: reread plz.


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As usual there is no meaning for me to reread because I always understand your posts.But I´m obviously rambling since you never understands mine.

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This hand is not about what you would do but what villain in this hand would do.

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OP wondered if this was a good spot to bluffraise river.
To determine if it is a good spot or not you have to understand why villain is betting river.Since he has 26/21/2 stats which is very similar to mine and many other players in this forum we can put ourselves in villains shoes to get a grip of what he is thinking.
Of course similar stats does not say that we play the same postflop, but approaching the problem in this way is as good as any other approach.
So If I were villain I know that any bet that is going into the pot is -EV for me but I can´t just lie down and die because the pot already contains 7.20 BB?
I would never bet/fold any hand here except perhaps KQ.In fact I would never ever bet any hand below ace pairs and it is reasonable to think that villain thinks the same way I do.If he has QJ,KK,QQ or something like that he can´t possibly think that you intend to call with a worse hand.
If he reads your hand you can´t really have a hand that pays him off on river can you?
Of course there are not many players that will bluffbet or valuebet light when checked to either.But again I can´t see why a bet/fold ever would be appropriate unless he can read you like a book

If that logic is correct then it is not a good spot to bluffraise river which also was my advice to OP (which necessarily isn´t a good advice, but still the best I can come up with)



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But c/f sucks a bit as well as the HERO TAG just might be tilting or decide to bluff bet a low pp. So even if c/f &gt; c/c he is still folding a winner sometimes. This is what makes some TAGs bet KJ, QJ, JT, QQ, KK, TT, 99 because it prevents them getting valueowned when c/c and folding the best hand when c/f.

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Bet/folding obviously doesn´t prevent them to getting owned since there are a number of players advocating Hero to raise.

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I am not gonna reply to you again because it is stealing not only my day but also the point of this thread.

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That is just a really unfair comment.Evaluate exactly how my posts deviates from the point of this thread.
I do think you´re a good poster Oink but I can´t really understand your urge for abusing other posters.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

I usually close the laptop after this one.

Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way.

So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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I usually close the laptop after this one.

Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way.

So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97.

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I could definitely have clubs, AK or AQ here. Why do those sound so preposterous?

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

Then again...

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This looks good to me.

Villain should be b/f KK

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Nope...

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

The thing about Villain betting the river with KK is that he is hoping to get value from a really small range. Basically 77 and below, which a) might play the flop/turn differently, and b) often fold the river. So many draws missed that he's almost begging you to raise (well not really, but you know what I mean). I'd say he's always calling you here.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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I usually close the laptop after this one.

Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way.

So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97.

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I could definitely have clubs, AK or AQ here. Why do those sound so preposterous?

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My default is to assume that you cap AK, cap AQ like 1/2 i'd say (probably a lot more vs. me).

Then i bet this river and you RAISE. Strong play IMO. So you rarely have an ace but more often have clubs, but how often do you have clubs and what clubs do you have?

I dunno I don't fold, people don't fold. toodaloo.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

i really like this, do it in terms of math, if you risk 1BB to win 7.2BB, then if your play is profitable 1 out of 6.2 times your break even. Against a TAG he is definitely laying it down enough to make this profitable, VNH SIR

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

FWIW, it might be good just for the times you get him off KQ or QTs or something. I haven't stoved that though. He would certainly play them like this imo.

Ironically, KQ doesn't run that different from KK vs. your river raising range, but of course at the table, he will instacall kings and usually throw KQ away easily.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

BAH YOU KIDS GO MAKE YOUR CRAZY BLUFFS I VALUE BET 44 HERE AND GET PAID OFF

these threads make the internet seem so small and so huge @ the same time

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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BAH YOU KIDS GO MAKE YOUR CRAZY BLUFFS I VALUE BET 44 HERE AND GET PAID OFF

these threads make the internet seem so small and so huge @ the same time

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Lol - whoa.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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i really like this, do it in terms of math, if you risk 1BB to win 7.2BB, then if your play is profitable 1 out of 6.2 times your break even. Against a TAG he is definitely laying it down enough to make this profitable, VNH SIR

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I see two problems with your reasoning.

1. You´re risking 2BB to win 7.20 not 1BB.
2. The same TAG that is capable of folding the river to your raise doesn´t bet the river if we are generally speaking.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

brass that's my 2nd to last day of work way of saying "meh this is prob not that bad if you have an ok image people are re's sometimes and somebody told somebody to tell somebody to 3-bet out of the bb w/a nice sized range, wasn't me though"

but if you're doing this because you think he b/f's KK (not saying you are) the express train to optimism town left yesterday and you're stuck here with us for a while. srry.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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brass that's my 2nd to last day of work way of saying "meh this is prob not that bad if you have an ok image people are re's sometimes and somebody told somebody to tell somebody to 3-bet out of the bb w/a nice sized range, wasn't me though"

but if you're doing this because you think he b/f's KK (not saying you are) the express train to optimism town left yesterday and you're stuck here with us for a while. srry.

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Hehe. I'd probably consider tossing my KK here 1/4 times against a decent TAG, if I were to bet it at all. That's kinda what went through my head when I made the play. Oh well.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

Danza... This is why I advocate also raising light with Ax in these spots, even if its almost -EV..

It gives you opportunities to rep the bluffs in the future.

If you wouldn't raise AT/A9 in this spot, then you shouldn't bluff.

Against a lot of TAGS , this river raise is a bluff most of the time... simply because they would never raise Ax medium kicker here.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

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Danza... This is why I advocate also raising light with Ax in these spots, even if its almost -EV..

It gives you opportunities to rep the bluffs in the future.

If you wouldn't raise AT/A9 in this spot, then you shouldn't bluff.

Against a lot of TAGS , this river raise is a bluff most of the time... simply because they would never raise Ax medium kicker here.

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I would, for sure. Not sure villian knew that, though, unfortunately.

Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
 

Think that might be going a little too far to substantiate your bluffs?

IME people will react to think value raises a lot differently than you're anticipating, but that may be a "how they treat" me vs. "how they treat you" thing. But TBH i don't think so.