KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

Villain is 20/18-ish. The only time we've tangled before, he cold-called my late pos. TT open with AA from the blinds. Check/calls a 9-7-7 flop, then donks a 6 turn.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $51
Hero (CO): $244.85
BTN: $237.10
SB: $59
BB: $121.10
UTG: $61.40

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($13) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $30</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($73) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40

River: ($153) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $99</font>, Hero hates life.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

Absolutely have to 3-bet the flop, I think. We get raised by one queen a TON here.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

river is a fold and dont worry much about it. this is never a bluff and hardly anyone ever plays AQ/KQ this strong and fires that bet on the river.

but i dont really like your line at all.
i usually 3 bet the flop, but calling is ok i guess.
as played, i prefer b/f turn for like 46 way more than c/c. if i check, its becasue im planning to ch/r

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

Plz note that we're 240bb's deep.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

snapcall

The 8 is a great card

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

check raise all in on turn unless he's a nit who would only do this with a set.

(nm I didn't notice the deepness)

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

cs3,
why is c/c such a bad line on the turn? Because we miss value from Queens? I don't think he's calling 2 streets of value with AQ if we donk turn and bet river.

Or is it because you don't want to give a free card to a draw?

I'm assuming you're b/f-ing the turn then?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]
The 8 increases our equity because it removes some combos of 2-pair and sets.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

like 90% of players are probably stacking off here with AQ

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]
Still, it increases our equity from about 44% to about 47% if his range is only sets, big pairs or AQ. Not a big difference but it helps.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 20/18-ish. The only time we've tangled before, he cold-called my late pos. TT open with AA from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

wait, so he flatted AA OOP? and he's 20/18?? If he can show up with AA or QQ here I'd fold, but if he's repopping like he should, he has 55 or nothing and I call.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

cuts down the number of 88s obv

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]
what, how? you think he had like Q5? i dont get it...

[/ QUOTE ]huh? he never has 2pr here. Its either a set, a Q, or 67...maybe 89/9T type hands sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]
exaclty my point... so how is that 8 so awesome for us? and jsut becaue it reduces the combos of 88 from 3 to 1, isnt a good reason to jsutify calling instaed of folding. (and im not saying calling is necessarily bad, just that combos of 88 arent a a good reason to sway one way or the other)

anyway, especally given history about villains cold calling tendencies PF, i think folding the river is fine, becasue what worse hand can villain expecet HERO to have, that he can get any value out of whatsoever on the river?

name one hand in heros range that pays off vs AQ

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

This just doesn't feel like a set for some reason -

- A set will want to get it all in by the river (especially this deep) - he has barely over one PSB left on the river ($163 behind in a $153 pot), so why isn't he shoving the river?

- He has position and a fairly dry flop - why not wait until you fire a second barrel on the turn before raising - he can make a bigger raise and you'll be much more committed at that point.

I think I'd look him up and expect to see AQ here a decent percentage of the time.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

I really don't see someone over 200BB+ deep firing this hard with out a really big hand. AQ is a possibility but I sincerely doubt he's betting it this confident that he is a winner with these stacks.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
so how is that 8 so awesome for us?

[/ QUOTE ]
I never said it was awesome, but it does help:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/sec

Board: Qd 8s 5h 7s 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.643% 42.86% 01.79% 12 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 55.357% 53.57% 01.79% 15 0.50 { QQ+, 88, 55, AQs, AQo }


---

26 games 0.005 secs 5,200 games/sec

Board: Qd 8s 5h 7s 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.077% 46.15% 01.92% 12 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 51.923% 50.00% 01.92% 13 0.50 { QQ+, 88, 55, AQs, AQo }


---

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
snapcall

The 8 is a great card

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
cs3,
why is c/c such a bad line on the turn? Because we miss value from Queens? I don't think he's calling 2 streets of value with AQ if we donk turn and bet river.

Or is it because you don't want to give a free card to a draw?

I'm assuming you're b/f-ing the turn then?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont like your line becaue because he rarely if ever fires both turn and river with a AQ, but will almost always call both streets with AQ.
and yes, i think b/f &gt; ch/r &gt; c/c given how the hand has been played up to this point

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see someone over 200BB+ deep firing this hard with out a really big hand. AQ is a possibility but I sincerely doubt he's betting it this confident that he is a winner with these stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily disagree - the problem is that he's betting this harder than I'd expect TPTK to bet, but not as hard as I'd expect a set to bet.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
cs3,
why is c/c such a bad line on the turn? Because we miss value from Queens? I don't think he's calling 2 streets of value with AQ if we donk turn and bet river.

Or is it because you don't want to give a free card to a draw?

I'm assuming you're b/f-ing the turn then?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont like your line becaue because he rarely if ever fires both turn and river with a AQ, but will almost always call both streets with AQ.
and yes, i think b/f &gt; ch/r &gt; c/c given how the hand has been played up to this point

[/ QUOTE ]

I think b/f the turn is absolutely TERRIBLE vs. a 20/18.

Either:

1) He puts you on an absolute monster for calling the flop and donking the turn and folds

or

2) He thinks your line is really [censored] fishie and it looks like you are b/fing so he raises (particularly with all his non-Q semi-bluff hands that you still beat).

Neither result is very hot for you.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]

- He has position and a fairly dry flop - why not wait until you fire a second barrel on the turn before raising - he can make a bigger raise and you'll be much more committed at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]
If he wants to go all in he needs to start building the pot.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

wait, so he flatted AA OOP? and he's 20/18?? If he can show up with AA or QQ here I'd fold, but if he's repopping like he should, he has 55 or nothing and I call.

reposting b/c ppl have missed this

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

exactly stickdude. I immediatley thought top two or way more likely in his hand range... a set.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- He has position and a fairly dry flop - why not wait until you fire a second barrel on the turn before raising - he can make a bigger raise and you'll be much more committed at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]
If he wants to go all in he needs to start building the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

but then he doesn't go all in after he's built this big pot... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
wait, so he flatted AA OOP? and he's 20/18?? If he can show up with AA or QQ here I'd fold, but if he's repopping like he should, he has 55 or nothing and I call.

reposting b/c ppl have missed this

[/ QUOTE ]

no i saw it, and im not sure why he can have AA here (AA adn QQ are both obv possibilities) but not be capable of calling PF in pos 200 bb's deep with some marginal hands too... like Q8s, 58s etc
and you guys think he pretty much never has Q8s, 58s, 78s, or 46s right?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
wait, so he flatted AA OOP? and he's 20/18?? If he can show up with AA or QQ here I'd fold, but if he's repopping like he should, he has 55 or nothing and I call.

reposting b/c ppl have missed this

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't miss this, sorry. I thought this was an obvious call and that you are saying basically the same thing Casper said (with more words) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

bilbo-san,

villain HAS coldcalled OOP with AA in the past, so QQ+ def are in this guys range. reread the OP

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

I really don't see the snapcall here. Villain is obviously reading that hero can beat the Q by calling 1 massive raise and 1 moderate turn bet. He isn't risking his 200BB+ stack on a possible tie.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[censored], AA being in his range doesnt really change things for me...because if he's played AA like a donkey before, he's more than capable of playing JJ like one now.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
This just doesn't feel like a set for some reason -

- A set will want to get it all in by the river (especially this deep) - he has barely over one PSB left on the river ($163 behind in a $153 pot), so why isn't he shoving the river?

- He has position and a fairly dry flop - why not wait until you fire a second barrel on the turn before raising - he can make a bigger raise and you'll be much more committed at that point.

I think I'd look him up and expect to see AQ here a decent percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much my thoughts exactly, especially given how passively you have played your KK here. AQ must be a huge part of his range.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[censored], AA being in his range doesnt really change things for me...because if he's played AA like a donkey before, he's more than capable of playing JJ like one now.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

like 300000 posts and noones asked about sb yet?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he's played AA like a donkey before, he's more than capable of playing JJ like one now.

[/ QUOTE ]
c'mon, you can't be serious?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

haha, ok not JJ...but yes I am serious when I say that just bc AA is now in his range doesnt make it a fold...If you are going to extend his range one way because of 1 hand (that played weird anyway bc it was a blind battle) then you have to extend it at least a little the other way as well.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
like 300000 posts and noones asked about sb yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

umm... is sb a lady-boy?

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

Anyway, there's no reason to think AA is still in his range here 240BB deep and not closing the action. The circumstances of the previous hand were probably different.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

Clear fold. That turn and river bet are begging for value. I don't think he's triple barrel bluffing here, and I don't think he is value betting a worse hand when he can close the action in a massive pot. What would he do if you pushed? Obviously call, so he is willing to risk the rest of his stack to win a 99$ bet when he could just check behind, without a read that he is a complete moron this is an easy fold.

Re: KK vs cold-calling TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]


name one hand in heros range that pays off vs AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

also nobody has even attempted to answer this question...