thin
 

10/20 playing 8 handed.

a loose passive player open limps in the hijack. i raise to isolate with A5s OTB. the blinds fold and he calls.

flop is Ks5d4d. He checks, I bet, he calls quickly.

Turn Th. he c/c

River Kc. He checks I bet for value...

Re: thin
 

If it's thin I think it may be because we're not getting called very often. I thin we're almost always ahead here, no?

Re: thin
 

nh

Re: thin
 

no, you get called by a better hand more than you get called by a worse hand.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
no, you get called by a better hand more than you get called by a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the big green elephant here. Do you have any read on the guy? Any idea of his open limp range? I think you're going to see the middling pocket pairs a lot here, as the 4s and 5s have to be discounted in his opening range, right? I check this behind.

Re: thin
 

does he pay off with Ahigh?

would he ever fold A5?

how does he play 88 and 99 pf?

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
does he pay off with Ahigh?

would he ever fold A5?

how does he play 88 and 99 pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answers I was assuming for these questions are:

No Never.
No Never.
Limps them cause he's loose passive.

With those answers, I think a bet makes no sense. If the answers were different, then we'd have to talk a bit more about it.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
He checks, I bet for value...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that there is no value to this bet.

Re: thin
 

i guess the point here is that i need a very specific read to make this bet.

wasnt this a pretty clear VB in SSHE? i dont have it with me so i forget the page...anyone have a copy on hand?

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
i guess the point here is that i need a very specific read to make this bet.

wasnt this a pretty clear VB in SSHE? i dont have it with me so i forget the page...anyone have a copy on hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

the crux of the decision is whether or not he'll call with Ahigh and what % of the time(busted diamond draw, etc.)?

also, what weaker 5s might be in his range? would he play J5 or something?

this is a question about his payoff tendencies, how he might view you(LOTS of opponents make it a habit to pay me off with Ahigh because of my bluff/semibluff frequency) and what his LP openlimp range consists of.

i don't think anyone can accurately comment on the short term value of this play without having a pretty good handle on these factors. i will say this, a bet like this can be a slight loser immediately but pay dividends(and thus def. be worth it) in the future. people see you valuebetting bottom pair/middle pair and they start paying off more often with hands that beat bottom pair and middle pair. this adds value to your toppair hands and assuming you adjust for the shift in their tendencies you might come out ahead in the grand scheme of things.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
a loose passive player open limps

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet for value...

[/ QUOTE ]

These two sentences go together like peas and carrots. I frankly don't think it's that thin. 22 might be thin.

He's calling down with a lot weak aces here.

good luck.
Eric

Re: thin
 

eric - you think live 10/20 players are calling down with weak aces ui here?

Re: thin
 

online i can see a bet definitely, btw

Re: thin
 

Again, I agree with the big green elephant. I don't play above micro stakes online, but in my 6/12 game I just don't see anyone ever calling here with Ace high. I think Kit's 10/20 is pretty comparable, and I just don't see him getting paid off enough to compensate for the times he gets shown 66 through TT.

Re: thin
 

Player dependent - yes ... but in my 10/20 game the loose passive are open limping with K,Jo; Q,Jo; A,10o (50% of the time); any pocket pair below 10s. Against that range you don't have any value in the bet. You raised, they put you on A,K but they're deperately hoping that you're getting frisky with A,Q and they've talked themselves into being showdown committed. I think you get shown a better hand here easily 75%+ of the time. In my game against the majority of the loose passive players the turn bet is the last I put in the pot unless and Ace comes on the river. The ace buys you fold equity, otherwise this is getting shown down and you are behind.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
online i can see a bet definitely, btw

[/ QUOTE ]

I only play online, and that is the context from which I am responding. If you tell me this guy won't call with ace high, then of course you should check behind.

thanks,
eric


PS. If your opponent won't call down ace high, he is probably exploitably tight. Bet this river, show your cards, and run him over!

Re: thin
 

If the loose passive players range was as restricted they wouldn't be loose passive. Then they would be weak tight. Does not apply, methinks.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I agree with the big green elephant. I don't play above micro stakes online, but in my 6/12 game I just don't see anyone ever calling here with Ace high. I think Kit's 10/20 is pretty comparable, and I just don't see him getting paid off enough to compensate for the times he gets shown 66 through TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you run the table over then? Players who only show down pairs should get crushed by an aggressive style. I hope you are attacking like a madman in blind steal situations.

-eric

Re: thin
 

eric - in a 10/20 online game i'd bet this a lot, as you say, expecting to get called by worse hands a fair bit.

in my live experience incl. 10/20, ace high doesn't call here ever, but something like 88 does.

obviously the games are lightyears apart, however.

Re: thin
 

I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

[/ QUOTE ]

T5 is stronger than A5 here.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

[/ QUOTE ]

T5 is stronger than A5 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I meant 95

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

[/ QUOTE ]

T5 is stronger than A5 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I meant 95

[/ QUOTE ]

95 is just as strong as 25 here.

Re: thin
 

I bet the river and feel pretty confident about getting called and winning.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
i guess the point here is that i need a very specific read to make this bet.

wasnt this a pretty clear VB in SSHE? i dont have it with me so i forget the page...anyone have a copy on hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the book with me, but I know the passage you're talking about. It is read-specific. I think it was in the section on tells, where a signal of weakness shifted a weak hand into a value bet on the river.

I think the read you're looking for is someone who is raising with almost all pocket pairs between KK and 55 and who would have signaled he held a king by raising either preflop or on the flop.

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

[/ QUOTE ]

T5 is stronger than A5 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I meant 95

[/ QUOTE ]

95 is just as strong as 25 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

coach me on how to read boards?

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm value betting down to 95-52 exactly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the weaker fives. I think my cutoff would be something like T5. At least we agree that 22 and 33 would be silly. A5=all aboard the valuetown express

[/ QUOTE ]

T5 is stronger than A5 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I meant 95

[/ QUOTE ]

95 is just as strong as 25 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

coach me on how to read boards?

[/ QUOTE ]

kicker doesn't play...

Re: thin
 

seems standard to me

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems standard to me

[/ QUOTE ]

the house is divided 50/50 it appears.

must not be standard

I think a lot depends on what you're goals are (like James. pointed out). if you want to project a v-betting machine, loose image, then its a bet. lately i've been projecting a Bernie-esque, tight so i can steal pots on occasion type-image, so i think this should have been a check here.

Re: thin
 

I'd check behind here. You have showdown value.

What's he going to call a river bet with? He's not going to fold a better hand or he'd have likely done that on the turn. Maybe, maybe an xTd, but even then he'd probably call given his profile.

Q-high, or something like mid pair(above the bottom 2 pair on this board), I might try a steal or VB on the end.


b

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
eric - in a 10/20 online game i'd bet this a lot, as you say, expecting to get called by worse hands a fair bit.

in my live experience incl. 10/20, ace high doesn't call here ever, but something like 88 does.

obviously the games are lightyears apart, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

10-20 online people go into callingstation mode with an A here because they're so afraid of being bluffed out. I'd be much more inclined to bet this online.

Live they aren't calling this with A high unless they are a major calling station.

b

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
would he ever fold A5?



[/ QUOTE ]

Not once he calls the turn.

b

Re: thin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seems standard to me

[/ QUOTE ]

the house is divided 50/50 it appears.

must not be standard

I think a lot depends on what you're goals are (like James. pointed out). if you want to project a v-betting machine, loose image, then its a bet. lately i've been projecting a Bernie-esque, tight so i can steal pots on occasion type-image, so i think this should have been a check here.


[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is about right.

i typically produce a fast-playing, laggro image and i would have likely valuebet assuming(which is usually the case with me) that i would be called by any ace.

this is the trade off in table image, though. i give up stealing a couple small pots here and there so that i gain more value from my made hands.

if your image is as you said and you want to maintain it, checking is correct.