Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

Now this is a difficult hand on many streets ...

Reads: This table is super-solid. The most solid stud8 table I've ever seen. Good players who know what they are doing. While playing the hand I feel like seat 7 just can't have anything but (AA)K or KKK... still I cannot resist capping 3rd to see what happens on 4th.

Obviously I made a mistake on sixth, but I felt he had a FD, so I thought I thought the street could get 4 bets in. Worth the risk IMO. Of course studying the hand now I see that there are too many dead clubs on 3rd for him to have the FD, but I didn't remember that at the time. Still I worked with the info I had. Actually, I think in the future I will recognize this kind of thing. Hey, learned something.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($5/$10), Ante $1, Bring-In $1,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (21.90 SB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls

5th Street - (18.95 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___folds

6th Street - (21.95 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

River - (25.95 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls

Total pot: (27.95 BB - $279,50)

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

I'm pretty curious what the 9 up had. Mid pair? I can't think of too many hands I want to play that have a 9 up.

4th st seems a little aggressive to me.

5th... not sure. If I'm one of the other hands here I'd put you on about what you have, i.e. not a made low, but a pair of aces and a low draw. Maybe aces up. Honestly I have trouble in spots like these so I don't know what kind of analysis to give.

6th... I don't know. I think you're pretty screwed for the high here. You're the only one with a low, so wouldn't you rather seat 5 comes along for more? If Seat 7 has AAK or KKK you're drawing dead to an A for the high. You can't make Seat 5 fold anything that you'd like him to to get extra outs for high if you're ahead. I'm shocked he got this far and folded. But then, I'm shocked he got this far. [Edit: ah, I re-read your last bit, you thought he'd come along for the cap. OK, that makes more sense.]

7th is an automatic bet, I think.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

Assuming he doesn't have KKK, I have the most equity on 4th and 5th. I don't think 4th is too aggressive, although it is a variance play, and I have a hard time letting go of aces. I don't see why I would not bet fifth. Even if they know my low is not made I have the best hand.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

A couple of big mistakes here:
3rd: Your opponent has AAK or KKK... and it's a 50-50 shot as to which (one other dead king and two dead aces). Believe it or not, you are a dog against both hands (King kicker is pretty powerful here). In a solid table, I would be very reluctant to take it to 3 bets, although I may 3 bet against weaker players.

4th: I would probably bet here and just call a raise at most... you have more outs now but the continued aggression is a bad sign for you. I may even check if the K is a really tight player. You certainly don't have the equity to four bet against kings.. you're fine against aces. Flip a coin... heads you lose, tails you take half of the third player's money. The third player might be rolled up or have your other two aces, although your low outs make up for that.

5th: Leaning towards AAK now, since he didn't bet or raise. Bet and call a raise; don't knock the third player out.

6th: It's tempting to flat call, but you'll make much more money if you get the 9 to call two cold. There's a ton of money in the pot, so the 9 will probably call at least enough (1/3+?) to make jamming profitable.

Playing results here will give you the wrong answer.

7th: Totally pointless bet. If seat 7 is insane enough to have only the tens, you should have noticed that long ago. It hardly matters anyways.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

Yeah the bet on 7th is pointless but it has no downside either.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

never underestimate misclick equity

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

If you truly believe he has rolled up kings 50 % of the time I think we should just fold 3rd. I don't really think this is the case. I tend to always raise an ace in the door, so I really think villain might just be spastic with a pair of kings. If I don't 3-bet 3rd I won't know if he's serious or not, and this hand becomes harder to play.

I guess 4th is pretty bad. I really want 5T guy to fold his 3-to a low, but he won't since he already cold called two.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

Rolled Kings would NEVER check 5th street when the action gets to him, especially seeing how ultra aggressive he was before that. When the 9 doorcard makes open J's and checks, if he had KKK, he would bet. So, if you thought that it was a possibility (which of course it was) now you can remove it from your list.

I would play 6th street differently. You already know that you're trailing to 2 pair when the K bets. You already have the low side locked up. By raising, you force out a hand that might make a better hand than K's up, hence, making your side of the pot larger perhaps.

And the river bet is NEVER pointless! Anyone who checks behind in these spots with a hand that CAN NOT lose, is playing sloppy poker. Why? because once you start saying, "this bet is silly", you start to miss bets in other spots without even realizing it. Always bet, always give them the chance to fold. Whoever said, "Never underestimate the misclick," is correct, and it's just another reason why betting is such the favorable choice. Also, if you only bet when you improve, don't you think that really good players will start to fold more correctly against you? I wouldn't give them the satisfaction of checking; when you always bet the river in these spots with a hand that has one side locked guaranteed, then you are also disguising your hand, AND, you send the message that the river is NOT going to be free for them when you don't improve. Because by doing that, you make their life/decsions that much easier. F&*# that, make them pay, scare them a little if you can. That's what it's all about, or at least, a part of what it's about. Besides, betting a no-brainer is fun!

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

[ QUOTE ]
7th: Totally pointless bet. If seat 7 is insane enough to have only the tens, you should have noticed that long ago. It hardly matters anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet on seventh is mandatory, for metagame reasons.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
7th: Totally pointless bet. If seat 7 is insane enough to have only the tens, you should have noticed that long ago. It hardly matters anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet on seventh is mandatory, for metagame reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's good for the metagame, and it's good for the wallet. Hero has the low; a pair of tens may be good here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

[ QUOTE ]
And the river bet is NEVER pointless! Anyone who checks behind in these spots with a hand that CAN NOT lose, is playing sloppy poker. Why? because once you start saying, "this bet is silly", you start to miss bets in other spots without even realizing it. Always bet, always give them the chance to fold. Whoever said, "Never underestimate the misclick," is correct, and it's just another reason why betting is such the favorable choice. Also, if you only bet when you improve, don't you think that really good players will start to fold more correctly against you? I wouldn't give them the satisfaction of checking; when you always bet the river in these spots with a hand that has one side locked guaranteed, then you are also disguising your hand, AND, you send the message that the river is NOT going to be free for them when you don't improve. Because by doing that, you make their life/decsions that much easier. F&*# that, make them pay, scare them a little if you can. That's what it's all about, or at least, a part of what it's about. Besides, betting a no-brainer is fun!

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reads: This table is super-solid. The most solid stud8 table I've ever seen. Good players who know what they are doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what the hell are we doing in this game?

You raise third with an Ace in the door and a King raises. You suggest that he's a good player, so he either has the other two Aces in the hole or rolled-up Kings. With the former, your hand is dead, and with the latter, you're crushed. I'll guess that Aces are the more likely, as rolled Kings probably wouldn't want to give away his hand (although what else could he be calling with?), and dead Aces wouldn't mind taking down the pot on third. In any case, I wouldn't be pumping the pot with your hand. I'd just call his raise.

Fourth came down pretty good for you. I still wouldn't jam. I might check-raise or bet out hoping for a raise, but I'm not looking to play a big pot with this hand.

Definitely bet fifth with your Aces and nut low draw. It's looking like the other aggressor had the other two Aces at this point.

Sixth street is interesting. I wouldn't be able to resist raising. It's really hard to fathom what seat 5 has. He shouldn't be on a flush draw with all those clubs gone on third street. Maybe just calling will keep a draw in where raising wouldn't. The only way to make real money is to jam, though. Maybe he's married to whatever draw he's on. Only one way to find out.

Definitely bet the river.

Re: Stud8, A8A - capped on 3rd
 

Well, I can certainly see why everyone disagrees with me. However, I would much rather have everyone fold to my bets too often instead of calling me 100% (which they probably do anyways with a pair).

I do usually bet in these spots, and I always bet if:
1. I may be able to scoop.
2. I may get a better hand to fold.
3. The person didn't raise at any point
4. I'm pissed at the person in question, often after missing a nice high draw.

I'd maintain that there are metagame reasons for not betting, but to each their own. I admit that misclick equity is something I didn't think about though.