*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

NE @ BUF

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I like Pats -15.5, but I love U46.5 right now.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I got NE -15.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I think I'm probably gonna bet 1u on NE at whatever line I can get, and then 2u on the under.

Let's see. Two good defenses, one terrible offense, let's make the total the 4th highest of the week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Buffalo might not score.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Buffalo might not score.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only that, but I don't think Buffalo has done anything to piss Belicheck off. I doubt he'll go to the same extent to score points late as he did against Dallas and Washington.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Not sure about the under, but I like NE -15. Can't really peg the New England on anything, honestly - the Redskins had a great defense, then New England put up 52 points on them. Also, while Buffalo's offense might not score, can't say the same about their defense and/or special teams.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Well 80% of the public is on the over right now. Maybe it'll move a little. It's just such a great line for us.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Buffalo might not score.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only that, but I don't think Buffalo has done anything to piss Belicheck off. I doubt he'll go to the same extent to score points late as he did against Dallas and Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just reading an article about how he is very close with Jauron, too. From way back.

Not a lot of piling on this week...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Call me a BSP, but I don't understand how NE doesn't win by 21+ like they have been doing all year. Buffalo is a terrible team and lost by 31 points the first time they played each other. What has changed other than the location of the game? Does homefield make the Bills 15 points better than they were at NE?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

“We will continue with J.P. Losman as our starting quarterback for our game with New England this Sunday," said Jauron.

I can't see Lynch having that great of a game against NE to let them hang around. As bad as Losman has played in his games that won't let Lee Evans get into the game to make any big plays. I'd say if Trent Edwards was playing they would have a shot to cover the spread but with Losman this will be a 20+ point win.

I wouldn't touch the O/U because you don't know if the Bills will score or the Patriots hit the Over by themselves.

Patriots -15 look like the smartest play.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call me a BSP, but I don't understand how NE doesn't win by 21+ like they have been doing all year. Buffalo is a terrible team and lost by 31 points the first time they played each other. What has changed other than the location of the game? Does homefield make the Bills 15 points better than they were at NE?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buffalo is a terrible team? Are you on crack?

And if you really think that because the Pats won 38-7 earlier in the year it means they are 31 points better than the Bills, you're on crack again.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

No 2+2 love for Buf +15....I may as well wait for the 17 cross.

This will be fun.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I also agree to stay away from the O/U because of the Pats ability to break it themselves. However, I do believe Buffalo will get closer than expected by some people.

Pats 31, Buffalo 10 or maybe Pats 38, Buffalo 17

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
No 2+2 love for Buf +15....I may as well wait for the 17 cross.

This will be fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm finding it hard to understand why you'd want to bet +15 against a team that has won 8 of its 9 games by at least 17 points.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Buffalo might not score.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only that, but I don't think Buffalo has done anything to piss Belicheck off. I doubt he'll go to the same extent to score points late as he did against Dallas and Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean that you think the Redskins and Cowboys did something to piss Bill Belicheck off? If so, what did they do?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Gibbs and Wilson were both pretty vocal about the Pats camera incident. I don't remember what Gibbs said, but I know Wilson made some dumb comment about how it tainted their legacy, and then tried to retract it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

NE 31 Buff 17, ship the [censored] corn tortilla

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

31 points is to low for old billy to like

they score a min of 42

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
NE 31 Buff 17, ship the [censored] corn tortilla

[/ QUOTE ]

Buffalo 17 points huh? Aren't we optimistic.

One of the reasons I'm taking Pats -15 and the U46.5 is this score, 31-17, is one of the few scores that could cause me to lose both bets. I see a very small chance (well under 20%) that the Pats win by less than 15 and the total is 47 or higher. You're looking at a 31-17, 35-21 game, and Buffalo's offense just isn't good enough to score that much.

On the flip side, I think there's a decent enough chance that both NE wins by 15 AND the under hits.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

SNF Plays.
Record 8-5-1 (+3.97u)
ATS: 4-4-1 (+1.33u)
Totals: 4-1-0 (+2.64u)

Pats -15 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

Maybe when the Pats beat a team not named the Peyton Mannings by less than 17 points I'll start fading them when they are giving less than that. Until then, nah, I'll ride 'em.

Pats/Bills U46.5
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

See explanation in the posts above. The Bills should pat themselves on the back if they get 14, but even that's a lofty goal for a team that scored 30 against the Jets in two games, 13 against the Dolphins, and 14 against the Broncos. They have a good enough D to keep the Pats from blowing this game too far out of the water though. 31-10 Pats.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Its surprising that on Yahoo, where you only pick SU winners, the pats have a slightly lower percentage pitt, dal, indy, phi and gb.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

No Lynch now, so I'm betting Pats -15.5.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
No Lynch now, so I'm betting Pats -15.5.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]


+ No nickel db, banged up at almost every position, Anthony Thomas v Pats d = ugly.
2u on NWE solely due to bye and no Lynch [and lack of DBs.] I got NWE as 18 better with Lynch at 100%, so...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me a BSP, but I don't understand how NE doesn't win by 21+ like they have been doing all year. Buffalo is a terrible team and lost by 31 points the first time they played each other. What has changed other than the location of the game? Does homefield make the Bills 15 points better than they were at NE?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buffalo is a terrible team? Are you on crack?

And if you really think that because the Pats won 38-7 earlier in the year it means they are 31 points better than the Bills, you're on crack again.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NFL.com
Buffalo
Offense:
Points 15.9 (ranked 27th)
Yards: 268 (ranked 31st)
Pass Yards: 164 (ranked 28th)
Rushing: 105 (ranked 17th) Now with Lynch out this drops off

Defense
Points: 18 (9th-sounds good right?)
Yards: 360 (28th-oops)
Passing: 241 (26th-oops again)
Rushing: 118 (20th-enough said)

Wins:
13-10 over Miami(0-9)
33-21 over Cinci (3-6)
17-14 over NYJ (1-8)
13-3 over NYJ (1-8)
19-14 over Balt (4-5)

Losses:


Denver
Pitt
NE
Dallas (at home, Dallas had how many Turnovers this game?)


I'm sorry that you think I'm on crack, but the numbers speak for themselves. With Lynch now out -15.5 seems to be a mortal lock unless there are fluke TDs in the 4th Quarter by Buffalo.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Buffalo's defense is averagish. DVOA has them 14th. Their special teams are very good. I'm not sure you know what the word terrible means.

Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Miami, NYJ (2x), and Balt?

They've been much better when they're healthy. But they're not. And NE isn't a "mostly solid offense".

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, it is completely unfair to list their yards given up and completely ignore their opponents, which have been mostly solid offenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Miami, NYJ (2x), and Balt?

They've been much better when they're healthy. But they're not. And NE isn't a "mostly solid offense".

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami is actually above average with respect to DVOA. So yes, they've played 3 poor offenses out of their 9 games. What a weak schedule.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I'm actually amazed that I have to supply evidence to back up my claim that Buffalo isn't a "terrible" team.

I mean, I have NE -15. I'm considering putting another unit down on -15.5. But it's not because Buffalo sucks, and anybody who thinks Buffalo is a terrible team is flat out wrong.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

Buffalo is not a good team as injured as they will be this week. That is inarguable.
The only query is, are they 15.5 worse than NWE off a bye and missing their best player[s].

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NE 31 Buff 17, ship the [censored] corn tortilla

[/ QUOTE ]

Buffalo 17 points huh? Aren't we optimistic.

One of the reasons I'm taking Pats -15 and the U46.5 is this score, 31-17, is one of the few scores that could cause me to lose both bets. I see a very small chance (well under 20%) that the Pats win by less than 15 and the total is 47 or higher. You're looking at a 31-17, 35-21 game, and Buffalo's offense just isn't good enough to score that much.

On the flip side, I think there's a decent enough chance that both NE wins by 15 AND the under hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 garbage time tds after the pats are up 31-3 obv. In all honesty my post my mainly a joke, I can't think of a good reason not to take the Pats at this point, just like everyone else. Pats to cover until til they show some signs of slowing down against a decent team sounds good. Not crazy about the under though, NE could have easily scored 50 in their first meeting if I remember correctly, but maybe they let off the gas ever so slightly considering homefield is basically wrapped up (doubt it.)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

might be a tighter game than you all think, HFA for Buffalo is key. look for their special teams to make a few big plays and their defence to limit brady and co. to 3 touchdowns

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
their defence to limit brady and co. to 3 touchdowns

[/ QUOTE ]
How do you figure? Buffalo's defense is league-average. And prior to the Colts game, the Patriots had scored at least 34 points in every game this season. Frankly, I'm not sure why the line on the Patriots team total is only 31.5, shouldn't it be a few points higher?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

bump

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I'm just throwing a little A/R on NE/O for [censored] and giggles...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

on bills +16.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I'm on Buffalo +17 (risking 3.45u to win 3u). Seems like a pretty solid public fade to me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

all over NE o31 team for 6.5u (max bet)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

This is gonna be ugly.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BUF) ***
 

I agree brendan.