10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

Motor City 10/20

Game seems to be swinging between loose passive and tight passive with a couple marginally spazzy spots

Villian: has opened things like 78s and A8o in early position. Becomes LP after a raise though. I'm not sure if he'd threebet AQ in this spot, for example; he might though. I have not seen him get out of line after the flop. He is stuck a rack and a half.

Me: I have a LAG image. I've shown down a lot of suited connecters that I raised after limpers. I haven't gotten out of line postflop, but I'm not sure if he realizes this.


Folded to me in MP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I raise. Folded to SB who threebets. BB Folds. I call.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets. I call.

Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets. I raise. SB calls.

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB checks. I bet. SB raises. Hero?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

3bet and call a raise. Much more likely he has an AK or JJ type hand that a flush.

Rest of the hand is good.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

River, re-raise his check raise, and call if he caps.

If he runner-runnered you, pay him off. Seems more likely that he is being slow with a set or flopped top two. I don't think he knows where he is at.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

Agreed. 3 bet this [censored] and pay off a 4.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
River, re-raise his check raise, and call if he caps.



[/ QUOTE ]

No cap heads up. Obviously I'm not five betting though.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

Pretty much in agreement with other posters, I'd say 3-bet and call.

His PF 3B out of the sb is AK, AA, KK, JJ enough times to warrant putting in a 3-bet on the river. Hands that are plausible that beat you are AQ clubs maybe A10 clubs so definitely 3 bet this river and call. There are many more combinations of AK, AA, KK, JJ than AQ/A10 clubs so most likely you won.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

There is one hand that beats you A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](usually), 3-bet the river, looks like a turned set of Jacks that has you on AK, or he has a AA/KK set. You may be a little light on your feet w/QTs in MP but you were there so could be fine.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

Calling a 4 bet on this river against a guy who "I have not seen him get out of line after the flop" has got to be a mistake. This is especially true in a 10/20 game. Nobody is 4 betting that river without a flush.

I am really suprised by the responses in this thread. Why exactly do we think this guy is too weak to 3 bet the turn with a set but then suddenly springs back to life when a scary draw completing card slides off on the river?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

if you 3 bang and get 4 bet, although folding might be immediately +EV, it probably makes you look like an idiot and one of two things will happen

1) people will take shots at you.

2) even if they dont, you will think people are always taking shots at you and become a call station.


keep that in mind.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3 bang and get 4 bet, although folding might be immediately +EV, it probably makes you look like an idiot and one of two things will happen

1) people will take shots at you.

2) even if they dont, you will think people are always taking shots at you and become a call station.


keep that in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again this is total nonsense. This isn't the stars 200/400. If someone wants to exploit me by bluff 4 betting rivers then by all means exploit away and see how bad you get your ass handed to you.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said 3 betting this river is right but calling a 4 bet can't be. It isn't a hero fold. It is an easy fold.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said 3 betting this river is right but calling a 4 bet can't be. It isn't a hero fold. It is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 100% agree with surfdoc here. This is live poker, easy fold.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3 bang and get 4 bet, although folding might be immediately +EV, it probably makes you look like an idiot and one of two things will happen

1) people will take shots at you.

2) even if they dont, you will think people are always taking shots at you and become a call station.


keep that in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep this in mind: they are not taking shots at you, they have better hands or are spewing chips. Its all in your head.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

So Joe, reading your last three posts:

You believe the correct play is to 3-bet the river and fold to a 4 bet, yes?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

I'm a mid-stakes limit n00b here, but with regards to 3-bet/folding vs. 3-bet/calling:

Given the size of the pot and the assumption that given the description of Villain, Villain's hand is consistent with JJ,KK+,AK, AcQc,AcTc, it looks to me like the cost of 3-bet/calling vs. 3-bet/folding is only 0.1BB, assuming Villain NEVER 4bets worse on the river and that I did the math right.

Since the EV is so close between the two choices in the worst-case scenario (only 4bets the nuts), does it really matter which choice we make on the river, practically speaking?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a mid-stakes limit n00b here, but with regards to 3-bet/folding vs. 3-bet/calling:

Given the size of the pot and the assumption that given the description of Villain, Villain's hand is consistent with JJ,KK+,AK, AcQc,AcTc, it looks to me like the cost of 3-bet/calling vs. 3-bet/folding is only 0.1BB, assuming Villain NEVER 4bets worse on the river and that I did the math right.

Since the EV is so close between the two choices in the worst-case scenario (only 4bets the nuts), does it really matter which choice we make on the river, practically speaking?

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What you are missing here is the application of bayesian thinking. We have new and additional information. We now have the opportunity to make our decision based on that new information. There comes a time when hand ranges get narrowed down enough that you can no longer assume equal probablities to each combination. When we get checkraised on this river and then 3 bet this guys set is going to be horrified of the backdoor flush as well as straight on the board. He didn't 3 bet the turn with these same holdings. Why is he suddenly 4 betting the river? Because something has changed. The card on the river is the only thing that changed and the simplest explanation is that it helped him. The only way it could help him is if he made a flush.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

Surfdoc -- I guess my contention is that 3-bet/folding > 3-bet/calling >>> just calling the c/r EV-wise. I agree that his 4-bet range is almost always a flush. However, he has a flush so infrequently when we 3-bet and we're getting > 15 to 1 pot odds when he does 4-bet that 3-bet/calling is at most a -0.1BB mistake, whereas failing to 3-bet is at least a 0.7BB mistake.

Against the Villains I've played live at 10/20, we're behind more than 94% of the time on the river when he 4-bets, so a fold would be in order. However, as a matter of principle if I put a 3-bet in on the river in a big pot I'm committed to seeing a showdown -- perhaps this is a leak, but it can't be very big, can it?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
Surfdoc -- I guess my contention is that 3-bet/folding > 3-bet/calling >>> just calling the c/r EV-wise.

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We were specifically talking about the play when he 4 bets the river. I guess maybe we should now spend some time addressing the correct play when checkraised. I find it very hard to believe that he played a set like this. Why wait until the river? I just can't piece together his thought process at all. Some players will wait until the river is safe and then put in additional action. If villian was thinking like this he would decide to forgo a raise if any club , Q, or T came off which would often destroy his hand. Well, one of those cards did roll off and now he is checkraising. What gives?

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

I generally agree with Proofrock in that the four-bet is going to be 99 and 44/100 pure nuts. If we get four-bet and our opponent is not a raving looney, our hand is beaten 100% of the time, period.

I still would absolutely 3-bet/call.

If this was the last hand of poker I played ever, 3-bet/fold would be the best play. But assuming it's not, in this extremely uncommon situation I will quite happily flush that 1BB right down the crapper just to avoid being seen folding in this pot.

The last thing you want in a good game is to give the impression that you carefully consider every action and are capable of folding a apparently terrific 2nd best hand on the river for one bet closing the action.

I try to win money in poker mostly by predicting what my mediocre opposition will do in every situation. If even one usually passive and predictable opponent observing this hand suddenly realizes that I can be folded just by putting in decisive action at the right times, the future pots I will likely give up before I realize his epiphany may well cost a lot more than that crying call.

If your mission is poker is to amaze everyone at what an incredible player you are, by all means fold to the four-bet. If you want to be thought of as merely mortal, which I consider more profitable, then call and shrug when he flips the nuts.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

I agree with Surfdoc that calling the 4bet seems a bit of a spew vs a reasonable opponent. You must know your opponent pretty well to fold to his 4 bet though.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

My mistake, and i agree. No 5-betting here either [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

results?
 

JJH3984,

what happened here?

Re: results?
 

I threebet intending to fold to a fourball. He called and showed AK so MHIG. I felt good about it at the time, but now I think he may have won Sklanskey $$$$ off me.

He really should have AcQc a lot the way the hand played out.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
So Joe, reading your last three posts:

You believe the correct play is to 3-bet the river and fold to a 4 bet, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm fairly sure every live 4-bet I've paid off on the river HU has been a loser. Like 99%, maybe once, someone misread their hand. (not counting chop hands obv)

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you 3 bang and get 4 bet, although folding might be immediately +EV, it probably makes you look like an idiot and one of two things will happen

1) people will take shots at you.

2) even if they dont, you will think people are always taking shots at you and become a call station.


keep that in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again this is total nonsense. This isn't the stars 200/400. If someone wants to exploit me by bluff 4 betting rivers then by all means exploit away and see how bad you get your ass handed to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. People always talk about this stuff like all of the sudden all the retarded fish who are open limping 93s OTB are gonna start bluff-3betting, or in this case capping big streets in 3b pots.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Joe, reading your last three posts:

You believe the correct play is to 3-bet the river and fold to a 4 bet, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm fairly sure every live 4-bet I've paid off on the river HU has been a loser. Like 99%, maybe once, someone misread their hand. (not counting chop hands obv)

[/ QUOTE ]
The only times I have been paid off in 10/20 live when my opponent 4-bet was when I had the nuts (straights) and they didn't. In one case it was a woman who overplayed her 2nd nut straight thinking my 3-bet was a set. In the other case it was a guy who was blind in one eye and his vision wasn't much better in the other. He thought he had the nuts but misread his hand.

While I think it is extremely likely that a 4-bet has us beat here (either AQs or ATs clubs), and is virtually never a bluff, I would call it anyway. Villain could have a set of Aces (or possibly Kings) and think we have a set too. He might have missed or dismissed the backdoor flush based on the way we played the hand so far.

Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
 

[ QUOTE ]
While I think it is extremely likely that a 4-bet has us beat here (either AQs or ATs clubs), and is virtually never a bluff, I would call it anyway. Villain could have a set of Aces (or possibly Kings) and think we have a set too. He might have missed or dismissed the backdoor flush based on the way we played the hand so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... an asteroid could also hit the earth in the next thousend years, destroying all life on the planet, but I'd assign the odds as less than 1 out of 25