Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

i've gotten a few PMs asking about the
Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates
methodology that I've employed this year in the NFL

Basically, the whole point of the system was to show how the 'boring' details of sportsbetting like line shopping matters.
There is/was a vocal poster to the forum who studies the NFL somewhat seriously, feels he has good insights, and has taken the step to betting the NFL for real and not just entertainment this season. However, this poster largely ignored many very qualified posters who chirped the importance of line shopping and reading line movements.

Each week this poster has posted somewhere between 3 and 7 NFL picks. To make a point and to make a little money, I actively bet the opposite way of each pick with about 5-10 minutes of effort put into line shopping. Have it be noted that I'm not the best line shopper and I'm less than below average at line movements.

I did not do this system to embarrass that poster, who adds insights that I think add value to the forum. I did this because many of us come to sports betting with the idea of just picking winnerz and raking in mad loot. Many of us have been at the point in our betting careers where we just didn't realize how important the best price and best line are. I've been fortunate enough to have a few posters point out said importance and fortunate enough to listen to them.

I bring this up now, because the difference in results between my system bets and that of the person I am fading is quite interesting right now. For reference, the person I'm fading bets in a single B&M casino (changes from week to week) in Vegas at -110 pricing (unless otherwise noted). From week 3 to week 10, we have the same record. However, not the difference in results!
Moral: If you want to take this serious, line shop!

Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates
17-16-2
up 0.12u
bet 37.04u

fading:
17-16-2
down 0.55u
bet 38.45u

**Week 3**
Jacksonville +3.5 -110 +WIN
San Fran +9.5 +106 -LOSS
Dolphins +3 +105 +-PUSH
fading: (1-1-1)
--Denver -3
--Pitt -9.5
--Jets -3

**Week 4**
Atlanta +2.5 v Houston bet 1.01u to win 1u +WIN
Miami -3.5 v Oakland bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS
St Louis +14 @ Dallas bet 1.2u to win 1u -LOSS
Arizona +6 v Pitt bet 1.14u to win 1u +WIN
Cincy +9 v Pats bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS
fading: (3-2)
--Hou -2.5
--Oak +4
--Pitt -6
--Dal -13
--NE -7

**Week 5**
Saints -3.5 v Panthers bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Jags -2 @ Chiefs bet 1.1u to win 1u (WSEX) +WIN
Dolphins +6 @ Texans bet 1.2u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN
Pats -16.5 v Browns bet 1u to win 1.02u (5 dimes) +WIN
Bears +3.5 @ Packers bet 1.05u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN
Cowboys -10 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (TheGreek) -LOSS
fading: (2-4)
--Car +3.5
--KC +2.5
--Hou -4.5
--Cle +16.5
--GB -3.5 (-105)
--Buff +10.5

**Week 6**
Chargers -9.5 v Raiders bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN
Packers -3 v Redskins bet 1u to win 1u +-PUSH
Bears -4.5 v Vikings bet 1u to win 1.06u -LOSS
fading: (2-1)
--Raiders +10 -110
--Redskins +3.5 -110 (Win v Push)
--Vikings +5.5 -110

**Week 7**
Saints -7.5 v Falcons bet 1u to win 1.03u (5dimes) -LOSS
Cowboys -9 v Vikings bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
Jaguars +3 v Inday bet 1u to win 1u () -LOSS
Bengals -6.5 v Jets bet 1u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN
Eagles -5.5 v Bears bet 1.04u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
fading: (3-2)
--ATL +9 -110
--Minny +9.5 -110
--Indy -3 -110
--Jets +6.5 -110
--Chi +6 -110

**Week 8**
Panthers +7 v Colts bet 1u to win 1u (Bodog) -LOSS
Giants -10 v Dolphins bet 1.03u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Rams +3 v Browns bet 1.13u to win 1u (5 dimes) -LOSS
fading: (3-0)
--Indy -7
--Miami +10
--clev -3

**Week 9**
Jets +3.5 v Redskins bet 1.05u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
49ers +3.5 @ Falcons bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Bengals -1 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Vikings +7 v Chargers bet 1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
colts +6 v Patriots bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetJamaica) +WIN
Cowboys -3 @ Eagles bet 1.2u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN
Seattle +2 @ Browns bet 1.1u to win 1u (BoDog) -LOSS
fading: (3-4)
--Wash -3.5
--Atl -3
--Buff +1
--SD -7
--NE -5.5
--Philly +3.5
--Clv -1

**Week 10**
Bills -2.5 v Dolphins bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Betonline)
Rams +10 @ New Orleans bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN (5dimes)
Chargers +4 v Colts bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Bodog)
fading: (0-2-1)
--Miami +3 (Push v WIN)
--NO -10.5
--Indy -3.5


*NOTE: The poster I'm fading posted week 2 picks that were winnerz before I started to publicly fade him. He is up on the year and deserves a good pat on the back. He is leaving money on the table as they say though.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

note: that is nearly a 1.75% difference in ROI
huge in the context that nearly every 'pro' gambler other than Thremp shoots for a 3% ROI overall


also, I do kind of wish I had bet with the poster in question and line shopped in his direction rather than against....I'd be in a better spot right now

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

You faded Assani's picks, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

For any team that has a non-zero probability of winning, there will be some line that makes them the proper bet. So in some sense, who wins only matters in the short term...in the same sense that long-term it doesn't matter if your pocket aces hold up on a particular hand.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

POTY in this forum for multiple reasons

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

And here I thought the name of that system actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

MT2R,

I thought you were talking about me at first.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

I am not sure I understand totally what you did in terms of fading person x.

Basically, every time he made a pick you decided to fade it, but instead of taking an immediate line you shopped around until you got the best line as long as it was fading the poster?

In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
line shopping matters

[/ QUOTE ]
I miss Pinnacle. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actively bet the opposite way of each pick with about 5-10 minutes of effort put into line shopping.

[/ QUOTE ]

He said that.

The point MT2R is making is that it doesn't matter how good of a capper you are compared to a line shopper at non superduper expert levels. People place too much effort and emphasis on building capping systems, instead of an emphasis on line shopping.

Unless you are Dr. Bob or some famous capper who can make Vegas move the line 3-4 points by yourself, line shopping is just as important as capping.

Few posters have said this over and over, but for the most part it is ignored, because the majority of what they write is trollish. (myself included) Thremp said he could teach a monkey to beat sports betting. He's right, assuming said monkey doesn't take longer than thremp to place a bet which is next to impossible [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


[ QUOTE ]

In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buying off the most key number for FREE? Of course it will make a huge difference. Look how much it costs to buy on or off the 3 in football. Now look at how much more often you'd win and getting that half point for free.

I am eagerly waiting for you to tell me how grumpy I am.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

I really like this thread guys. I think it will help me drastically.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Lol, and thanks for the quick reply.

I was confused by OP's original point as he stated no specific conclusion at the end and I didnt wanna read his stats paragraphs.

I never realized the importance of line shopping vs. a solid capping system and just assumed the latter was more pivotal.

However, you two have not touched on the nuances of line shopping in regrads to movement based on public/sharp betting. How can one be sure if we wait for a better line it will not move against us?

Also, line shopping only becomes critical AFTER correct capping, right? I don't think fading a high volume poster on here would be +EV in terms of which way to lean.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Please define fading.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please define fading.

[/ QUOTE ]

betting the opposite of someone's plays.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please define fading.

[/ QUOTE ]

betting the opposite way of a person's picks

basically, I had no faith in that person's abilities

in retrospect, I think that poster might know enough about the sport to be a successful handicapper at it but it's still too early to tell


I would've made much more so far had I line shopped following that poster's picks instead of fading them.


However, this makes the point I'm trying to make even stronger. Here, I'm taking the side exactly opposite of someone who may be a positive handicapper. With 5-10 minutes of work line shopping every Sunday morning before kickoffs, I've been able to get the same record and make more money on less units bet. Line shopping the opposite side has overcome a handicapper who has picked above .500 and turned a profit.



I'm not even a good line shopper.
I only used a handful (about 8) of grade A rated books for this exercise.


Ideally, one wants to be all of a good capper, a good line shopper, and good at reading line movements.

This exercise is somewhat showing that line shopping > capping.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
And here I thought the name of that system actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely means something if one looks--it gives away exactly what I've been doing

Inimcal NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates


in·im·i·cal
–adjective
2. unfriendly; hostile: a cold, inimical gaze.

NFL
-National Football League

al·go·rithm
–noun a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor.

spot·ting
-23. to detect or recognize; locate or identify by seeing: to spot a hiding child.

sys·tem·at·ic
–adjective 1. having, showing, or involving a system, method, or plan: a systematic course of reading; systematic efforts.
2. given to or using a system or method; methodical: a systematic person.
3. arranged in or comprising an ordered system: systematic theology.
4. concerned with classification: systematic botany.
5. pertaining to, based on, or in accordance with a system of classification: the systematic names of plants.

Addle-pate
n. A foolish or dull-witted fellow. [Colloq.]






Also, look at the backwards acronym
it felt appropriate though slighty mean given the context of the experiment

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

line shopping > capping > line movements

but shopping is much easier than capping so therefore more time and discussion should be spent on capping

to be any good at line moves you have to watch the markets all day and figure out when the big bettors are putting money down; it is hardly worth the hassle. to me line movements is about being ready for those big bettors, and reacting properly at your key books after the big boys act, which ties right back into line shopping.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
POTY in this forum for multiple reasons

[/ QUOTE ]
I figured out the name a few weeks back and always lol

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
line shopping > capping > line movements


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think that what MT2R said is correct you need to be all three. Its extremely easy to determine who the sharp side is, and who the big money is on. From there, you use your capping to figure out why they are on it and if you agree with it. Once you agree or disagree, you go find the best line. I dont rank anything above anything else. People make money doing all three seperately. However, if you can combine all 3, then you doing extremely well for yourself.

FWIW, I 1000% dont sit around all day and watch lines. Thats the "old" way.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And here I thought the name of that system actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely means something if one looks--it gives away exactly what I've been doing

Inimcal NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates


in·im·i·cal
–adjective
2. unfriendly; hostile: a cold, inimical gaze.

NFL
-National Football League

al·go·rithm
–noun a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor.

spot·ting
-23. to detect or recognize; locate or identify by seeing: to spot a hiding child.

sys·tem·at·ic
–adjective 1. having, showing, or involving a system, method, or plan: a systematic course of reading; systematic efforts.
2. given to or using a system or method; methodical: a systematic person.
3. arranged in or comprising an ordered system: systematic theology.
4. concerned with classification: systematic botany.
5. pertaining to, based on, or in accordance with a system of classification: the systematic names of plants.

Addle-pate
n. A foolish or dull-witted fellow. [Colloq.]






Also, look at the backwards acronym
it felt appropriate though slighty mean given the context of the experiment

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw the acronym which is why I said that. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?


[/ QUOTE ]

B&M and locals are where you're going to find the best lines to bet, especially on public games. LV books are not allowed to lay off action on other books by law, so there's often great numbers to be had. Online WA numbers are a tough nut to crack (obv not even close to impossible) especially when factoring the slight (?) risk of not getting paid.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is impossible to win at sportsbetting if you're betting +3 when +3.5 is readily available.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
POTY in this forum for multiple reasons

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Here is another way of what MT2R is saying, or perhaps just restating it.

Lets assume some guy named Squareanni Lamer is the best capper of all time. He hits at 62% lifetime and stood the test of time and this is confirmed true by every authority on the issue ever.

You can make money betting the exact opposite of him as long as the price is right. Say X is playing Y and the spread is 5. Say Squareanni has XTeam -5 -105 and it will hit 62% no matter what. If you can get YTeam +5 at +140, and Squareanni is hitting 62%, you will both be long term winners.

The truth is there is no such thing as Squareanni, but even if there was you can still be ahead in the long run hitting at 38% winners if you are getting the proper price. This is not a practical scenario, but if you can identify small edges and focus on factors outside of the athletes in the game, it only adds to your arsenal.

My math has always been awful and probably off in this example but it doesn't change the point.

When you are fine with betting 5 figures on a team where you don't even know one player on it you officially have lost your training wheels [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Bradley one time.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bradxxxx Hard 10 one time!

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

spoken like a true field mouse

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
spoken like a true field mouse

[/ QUOTE ]

My cold is def 10x worse than when the weekend started and I think I hacked up a lung there.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?


[/ QUOTE ]

B&M and locals are where you're going to find the best lines to bet, especially on public games. LV books are not allowed to lay off action on other books by law, so there's often great numbers to be had. Online WA numbers are a tough nut to crack (obv not even close to impossible) especially when factoring the slight (?) risk of not getting paid.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is mostly untrue. Tons of the B&M books move their lines on "air". i.e. Don Best shows that the bigger online books moved a game by a point most of the the B&M's follow suit without actually taking a limit bet.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?


[/ QUOTE ]

B&M and locals are where you're going to find the best lines to bet, especially on public games. LV books are not allowed to lay off action on other books by law, so there's often great numbers to be had. Online WA numbers are a tough nut to crack (obv not even close to impossible) especially when factoring the slight (?) risk of not getting paid.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is mostly untrue. Tons of the B&M books move their lines on "air". i.e. Don Best shows that the bigger online books moved a game by a point most of the the B&M's follow suit without actually taking a limit bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point to be made here is that the B&M books can have too much one sided action so they're offering a nice price to bait in money on the other side to reduce their risk.

In fact, I remember reading somewhere on LVASports that a book (the Palms?) was offering an insane price for the Steelers money line for last week's MNF game because they had taken a large bet on the Ravens money line.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

POTY b/c I added Inimical to my vocabulary

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
MT2R,

I thought you were talking about me at first.

[/ QUOTE ]


nah....I like you...I'd feel bad winning that way