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-   -   How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=543865)

PLO8FaceKilla 11-11-2007 08:41 PM

How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
How many hu sng buyins do you play with before you move up?

tmcdmck 11-11-2007 08:49 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
i voted 20, but it was 10 until i reached the 100s.

daveT 11-11-2007 08:59 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
I think that since he wrote "before you move up," he is asking how large my roll is for the level before.

If I am playing the 5s, I will move up to the 10s when I have 100. So I "play with" 20 BIs then I will play with 10, and etc.

(believe it or not, I still have faith in TNixon's 'roll growth theory)

shyturtle27 11-11-2007 09:04 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
30 to move up and when I hit 20 move down. I am learning this game however, but still winning so this might be conservative.

PLO8FaceKilla 11-11-2007 09:10 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
30 to move up and when I hit 20 move down. I am learning this game however, but still winning so this might be conservative.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't worry....

I wait until i have 100 buyins until i move up.
that is really really ultra-conservative but i like it.

Takes a while to get up there though...
When i move up to the 100s, i might do it with 50 buyins but im not sure.

I like to get 700 games in at each level before i move up

ukdentisto32 11-11-2007 09:10 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
if im on tilt...1

TNixon 11-11-2007 11:03 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i voted 20, but it was 10 until i reached the 100s.

[/ QUOTE ]
me too

shat4brains 11-11-2007 11:28 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
thats crazy
i cant imagine playin with less than 30
i play the 22s and 33s with 5k

tmcdmck 11-11-2007 11:37 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
well i wasnt scared of going busto: i just wanted to build a bankroll asap and i was happy to take risks in doing so. if you do not want to risk going busto, 10 BI is obviously a very poor idea.

cwar 11-12-2007 12:21 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
40 usually does the trick for me, how much tougher the competition will be should be an important consideration though, 220s to 550s is a huge jump in skill for example.

ChicagoRy 11-12-2007 02:33 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
To all the 10 buyin br ppl...

What's the end goal here? Do you just hope to run super hot until you hit 50k and then cash some out or take shots at Genius or something?

I'm not saying it's not a good plan, but it seems most of the 10 buyin people haven't gotten further than the 55s before giving themselves more of a bankroll. What's the end game here with this 10 buyin plan?

wrkingtobegreat 11-12-2007 02:40 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
This is for people who just really enjoy gambling/moving up. I've turned around 20 bucks into over a thousand playing HUSNGs in a VERY short amount of time (like a day or two) numerous times, then lost a significant portion of my bankroll, not moved down in limits, and tilted it all away. I'm working on my self-discipline and mastering my need to gamble, as well as trying to correct other personal attributes that may lead to this behavior. Maybe that style is personal and exaggerated in me, but I think most people that do this are similar to some extent.

TNixon 11-12-2007 03:34 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What's the end game here with this 10 buyin plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i voted 20, but it was 10 until i reached the 100s.

[/ QUOTE ]

To get through the lower levels ASAP. I slowed down a little going into 50s, and a lot going into 100s. There is no reason for any winning player who is trying to move up to play <50s with more than 10 buyins, and doing so leaves a TON of value on the table.

abcjnich 11-12-2007 04:57 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
Anyone who plays with 10bi at any level is an idiot. If you're smart enough to beat the game w/ a good WR then you should also be smart enough to know decent bankroll management.

tmcdmck 11-12-2007 05:10 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
jesus do you understand aggressive bankrolling? i saw a long mathematical post explaining why if you have a half decent winrate and are prepared to move down, a 7.5 buy in bankroll is optimal. the ignorance and misplaced condescention of that post just tilted me a little. hell i think the bankroll post is stickyed. not all of us are nits terrified of busto/ lower limits.

sonneti 11-12-2007 09:29 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
Started with £100 playing the £10 games and I'm up to £410 now... should probably move up but I enjoy crushing the games so much I just don't want to leave.

PLO8FaceKilla 11-12-2007 11:23 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
i could never do 20 or 30 for that matter.

Right now im waiting another month or so to move up to the 100s. i don't know if i want 100buyins or ill do it with 50 but anything less would make me extremely uncomfortable.

I just don't think 20 is right. 10 is completely ridiculous. I consider myself a good player and I had a 13 game losing streak in the 50s. if i was doing the 20 buy in rule it would have been pretty damn difficult to deal with that.

PLO8FaceKilla 11-12-2007 11:30 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Started with £100 playing the £10 games and I'm up to £410 now... should probably move up but I enjoy crushing the games so much I just don't want to leave.

[/ QUOTE ]

why don't you move up when you get to 500.
if you don't like that wait until you get to 1k.

there's nothing wrong with that and if you do it right you won't ever go broke.

jay_shark 11-12-2007 11:36 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
jesus do you understand aggressive bankrolling? i saw a long mathematical post explaining why if you have a half decent winrate and are prepared to move down, a 7.5 buy in bankroll is optimal. the ignorance and misplaced condescention of that post just tilted me a little. hell i think the bankroll post is stickyed. not all of us are nits terrified of busto/ lower limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

An optimal bankroll amount can be answered mathematically using the Kelly criterion . This says that if your win-rate is p and your odds on the wager is v-to-1 , then we should risk :

f=[p*(v+1) - p]/v where v in this case is 1/1.05 or about 0.95

So this tells us that there is no fixed optimal number since we're dealing with a variable win rate . However , your optimal bankroll can be determined if we know your long term win rate and the odds received on the wager . For instance , if p =58% and v~ 0.95 , then we should be willing to risk

f=[0.58*(1.95) -1 ]/0.95
f= 13.7% or about 13% of our bankroll on the wager . Many players use half-Kelly or about 13.7%/2 = 6.8% to avoid fluctuations in their bankroll while at the same time maintaining a strong growth rate .

tmcdmck 11-12-2007 11:38 AM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
plo8, i think we just have different priorities: i am very much a risk taker, and i will maximise risk if it maximises reward without hesitation. yeah the downswings SUCK, but the upswings are spectacular too. and remember, if you are moving down when your br takes a hit, a 13 bi downswing may well leave you with a bigger bankroll with the 10bi rule than it would with a 100 buy in rule; the upswings would pay for such swings.

like stu ungar: he was crap a folding, but he was so good at calling and betting that he could afford to double people up much more frequently than everyone else.

having said that the downswing suck so so hard (am at the bottom of one at the mo), and at such times i do wish i bankrolled conservatively. but then i think of the times i have doubled my bankroll in a day.

prodonkey 11-12-2007 12:55 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
jesus do you understand aggressive bankrolling? i saw a long mathematical post explaining why if you have a half decent winrate and are prepared to move down, a 7.5 buy in bankroll is optimal. the ignorance and misplaced condescention of that post just tilted me a little. hell i think the bankroll post is stickyed. not all of us are nits terrified of busto/ lower limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

An optimal bankroll amount can be answered mathematically using the Kelly criterion . This says that if your win-rate is p and your odds on the wager is v-to-1 , then we should risk :

f=[p*(v+1) - p]/v where v in this case is 1/1.05 or about 0.95

So this tells us that there is no fixed optimal number since we're dealing with a variable win rate . However , your optimal bankroll can be determined if we know your long term win rate and the odds received on the wager . For instance , if p =58% and v~ 0.95 , then we should be willing to risk

f=[0.58*(1.95) -1 ]/0.95
f= 13.7% or about 13% of our bankroll on the wager . Many players use half-Kelly or about 13.7%/2 = 6.8% to avoid fluctuations in their bankroll while at the same time maintaining a strong growth rate .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your risk of ruin using that is HUGE. My win rate is 59%, so 1/2 kelly would give me 8%.. I should be playing sngs for 8% of my roll?? So give me a hypothetical 3k roll.. I should be playing 200's heads up, that's like 15 buy ins.

jay_shark 11-12-2007 01:25 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
If you're willing to move down in stakes ; if you have a bad run or you're not playing your A game , then your risk of busting using this approach is very low .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

If you're using 15 buy-ins with a 59% win-rate , your risk of going broke without changing stakes is [0.41/0.59]^15 ~ 0.004255 which is less than 1 percent . Since we play with a rake , this number should be a bit higher than that but probably close to 1 % .

TNixon 11-12-2007 01:46 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who plays with 10bi at any level is an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody who makes this claim blindly without at least attempting to understand the issues at hand has no business at all calling anybody else an idiot.

Poker is about making +EV decisions. Waiting until you have 20 or 30 buyins can be a *massively* -EV decision. Why would you choose to pass up on so much potential value at a point when your bankroll is almost certainly easily replaceable?

daveT 11-12-2007 03:29 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
The 10BI for the less math inclined.

At 200, lose 3 BIs, drop, lose 3 BIs, drop, then 14 BIs = 20 BIs total.

300= 23 BI roll

etc.

chesterboy 11-12-2007 04:39 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
I'm just curious, are any of you guys that use these 10 bi methods sticking around in bigger games, or are you just perpetually near busto every few days?

I'm a cash player mainly, so I already have a nice bankroll for $100 HUSNG, and could never imagine risking my bankroll in this way.

Maybe you guys should consider having a portion of your bankroll that you protect and grow, and then use anything over that for this aggressive moving up. IE keep 1k for $30's and get aggressive above that. If at somepoint you manage to get up to 5k, just play the 50's and get crazy when you get up to 6k. But if you should drop to 5k just go back to 50's.

The benefit of this is not only will you grow a chunk of money and keep it, you will also raise your overall hourly rate by raising the lowest limit that you play.

From a cash player perspective, a 100 buyin bankroll sounds nice. I like only risking 1% of my roll on a game.

jay_shark 11-12-2007 05:17 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
100 buy-ins is often recommended for mtt's not heads up sng's .

For many players , 20 buy-ins is more than enough if you beat the game convincingly . However , as you move up in limits , your edge will decrease and the number of buy-ins will have to increase as well .

So for the $100 buy-in player with a 55% win-rate , he may need something like x>=ln0.01/[ln0.45-ln0.55] ; x>=22.94 buy-ins (excluding the rake) . If we include the rake , he may require something like 25-30 buy-ins .

Again , if you're willing to move up or down in limits , then 25 buy-ins may suffice for a player with a 55% win-rate and a risk of ruin of 1 % .

TNixon 11-12-2007 05:24 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, are any of you guys that use these 10 bi methods sticking around in bigger games, or are you just perpetually near busto every few days?

[/ QUOTE ]
After the dozens, if not hundreds, of posts that have been made on this topic, it honestly surprises me that so many people still just automatically assume playing 10 buyins just automatically means a very high risk of ruin.

If I have $300 with a 10/7 BI rule (step up at 10, back down at 7), I don't go busto if I have a 10BI downswing. Moving up and down at the appropriate times means I would basically have to have a 25 BI downswing to go bust (and that's only because I would rather redeposit than play $2s. If I play through $2s, that adds another 10BI pad). Dropping 25 is certainly possible, but the risk is pretty small, and the potential upside is huge. Also, waiting for 20 or 30 buyins really doesn't buy you that much more safety. Simulator runs show that over 1k games, you can be trading as much as doubling your final bankroll on average, for less than 1% added to your survival rate (that's already pretty high anyway, due to the extra stepdown padding). So instead of going bust 1.5 times in 100, you go bust .7 times in 100, but with a *much* lower average ending point.

[ QUOTE ]
From a cash player perspective, a 100 buyin bankroll sounds nice.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is pretty nitty by most people's standards (including quite a few people who pay their bills through poker), unless you don't think your skill level is high enough to be a winner at the next level.

[ QUOTE ]
I like only risking 1% of my roll on a game.

[/ QUOTE ]
But this trumps anybody else's view of nittiness.

I can tell you with 100% assuredness that by waiting for 20 or 30 buyins to advance through a HUSNG level, you are passing up a TON of potential value if you're going to be a winner at that level, and a smaller amount of value if you still need an adjustment/learning period.

I can also tell you that playing 10 buyins has you moving up and down in levels on a fairly regular basis, and that it's nowhere near being "perpetually near busto every few days".

But only you can decide where your comfort level is, and that factor will outweigh any amount of statistics.

[ QUOTE ]
But if you should drop to 5k just go back to 50's.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I hit 5k, the only reason I can imagine continuing to play $50s is if it's too tough to find opponents on a regular basis at anything higher. So far, I haven't had too much trouble with my shots at $100s filling up, so I don't imagine that will be an issue.

chesterboy 11-12-2007 06:58 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
Yeah I understand that moving down makes it highly unlikely you will go broke. But it also makes it extremely likely you will be spending a fair amount of your time playing really low limits. All I was suggesting is combining that with a more conservative long term bankroll building plan, that would allow you to play higher stakes on average long term.

TNixon 11-12-2007 07:28 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I understand that moving down makes it highly unlikely you will go broke. But it also makes it extremely likely you will be spending a fair amount of your time playing really low limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

That statement simply does not follow. You're *more* likely (if you're a winning player) to spend more time playing *higher* limits than you would with a more conservative bankroll plan.

That's the exact reason that you lose so much value playing conservatively. Even if I do drop a number of buyins, at some point, the level that I "drop" to by playing aggressively and losing a few, is the level that you started with and stuck at.

daveT 11-12-2007 07:31 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
It's one of those things, that if you explain it to someone fifteen times and they still don't understand, then they aren't going to understand if you explain it fifteen more times.

This thread seems a little off for some reason.....

Indiana 11-12-2007 07:59 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
i usually carry around 1/2 a buyin and the other 1/2 i get from begging the $ from guys in the chat box at the 550s.

chesterboy 11-12-2007 08:09 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
Touchy subject I guess lol. The only reason I really ask is that it seems that the majority of players that tout this method are playing like the 20s or 50's, indicating they have pretty tiny bankrolls, which just doesn't inspire confidence. Seems like a solid winning player could build up a 5kish bankroll pretty easy, and never have to play below 100s again.

Indiana 11-12-2007 08:29 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
kids cash out to pay expenses. I mean I play 115s and 220s and I keep $10-15K online at all times. I could reload more, but I wouldnt be happy doing it:)

Indy

PLO8FaceKilla 11-12-2007 08:47 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
Ok the talk in this thread is definitely making me change some things....

At the start of the new year im going to play 100s with a 50 buyin Roll instead of 100.

I understand what you mean about us losing money, i just have this thing where when i beat a level, im proud of it, and i never ever wanna go back down again. When it takes an hour to get in a 50 game i wait, i don't play a 30.
and after 700 50s, i don't plan on going back to that either.

Maybe that's why i am nitty and like the 100 buyin rule.

daveT 11-12-2007 08:50 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
A full hour? Don't they have cash HU for PLO8?

rja87 11-12-2007 09:15 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ok the talk in this thread is definitely making me change some things....

At the start of the new year im going to play 100s with a 50 buyin Roll instead of 100.

I understand what you mean about us losing money, i just have this thing where when i beat a level, im proud of it, and i never ever wanna go back down again. When it takes an hour to get in a 50 game i wait, i don't play a 30.
and after 700 50s, i don't plan on going back to that either.

Maybe that's why i am nitty and like the 100 buyin rule.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make any sense, I can understand not wanting to move down but there's no reason not to play a 30 if you're waiting around anyway, that's just wasted time.

LordMushroom2 11-12-2007 10:20 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
v in this case is 1/1.05 or about 0.95

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn“t it be 0,95/1,05 because you are not getting the fee back even if you win?

jay_shark 11-12-2007 11:02 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
v in this case is 1/1.05 or about 0.95

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn“t it be 0,95/1,05 because you are not getting the fee back even if you win?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right , v should be 0.95/1.05 ~ 0.9047 .

PLO8FaceKilla 11-12-2007 11:19 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok the talk in this thread is definitely making me change some things....

At the start of the new year im going to play 100s with a 50 buyin Roll instead of 100.

I understand what you mean about us losing money, i just have this thing where when i beat a level, im proud of it, and i never ever wanna go back down again. When it takes an hour to get in a 50 game i wait, i don't play a 30.
and after 700 50s, i don't plan on going back to that either.

Maybe that's why i am nitty and like the 100 buyin rule.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make any sense, I can understand not wanting to move down but there's no reason not to play a 30 if you're waiting around anyway, that's just wasted time.

[/ QUOTE ]

well i've done the 100 buyin rule to get to where im at with the 50s...

ive played 700+ 10s, 700+ 20s, and 700+ 30s. I would just rather wait than play a game at a level i just beat. Once i'm past a level i just want to be done with it and never come back.

TNixon 11-12-2007 11:43 PM

Re: How many Buyins is your HU SNG bankroll?
 
[ QUOTE ]
players that tout this method are playing like the 20s or 50's,

[/ QUOTE ]
Duh?

As far as I can tell, everybody who's talking about playing 10 BIs has also said that we slow that down when reaching $50s or $100s...

Personally, I've had to rebuild from near-scratch a number of times, but none of those times have had anything to do with being overly aggressive with my bankroll.

At least, not with regards to HUSNGs. I've been a donk with my roll in many other ways that have nothing to do with playing 10BIs at HUSNGs. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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