Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

let us gogogogogogo

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Harumph!

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

lol sorry...I looked but it was so far down I didn't notice it. Mods feel free to lock/delete one or the other - since this one's at the top now I say we just use this one rather than have them both up here - plus my thread is better obv [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Yeah, that's fine. Just note my thoughts on the games I mentioned. Where do you see the Oregon line opening anyway? I'm thinking 16.5's kinda high the more I think about it. Maybe 15?

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

any speculation on duke-ND. where is the game? (yes, lazy)... i really hope it's on TV. i think all ND's games are on (i do remember a few in recent years that haven't been)... EDIT: @ND on NBC @ 2:30

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Kentucky/UGA line is WAYYYYYY too low imo

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But is it a LOCK? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Kentucky/UGA line is WAYYYYYY too low imo

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But is it a LOCK? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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The only lock in Kentucky games is Rafael Little getting hurt.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Yeah, that's fine. Just note my thoughts on the games I mentioned. Where do you see the Oregon line opening anyway? I'm thinking 16.5's kinda high the more I think about it. Maybe 15?

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I don't know anything at all about Arizona, but I think 14.5 would generate balanced action.

West coast stuff is generally not my area of expertise, that is if I have one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Iggy's thoughts from the other thread:

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Northwestern at Illinois -10
Duke at Notre Dame -7.5
Ohio State -4 at Michigan
West Virginia -3 at Cincinnatti
Boston College at Clemson -7
Kentucky at Georgia -4.5
Oregon -16.5 at Arizona?
Hawaii -10 at Nevada?

The Hawaii and Nevada lines in particular are really hard to figure. I'd put a fair line on Hawaii/Nevada under a TD, but the public seems to love to bet up Hawaii and I'm not how big of an adjustment there will be for that here. Oregon should be favored by 20 according to Sagarin, but they probably aren't quite as good as that number would indicate. I could see this opening anywhere from 14 to 18.5.

Edit: I completely forgot about the Brennan injury. If he's questionable for Friday, we probably won't even see a line until Wednesday. If he's out, I'd put a fair line at Nevada -3.

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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

I think 7.5 is too many for ND to be giving Duke. 6ish is more like it. Are we sure ND is better than Duke? They played similarly against Navy and are only 1 point apart in Sagarin.

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i know it's duke, but ND giving anyone 7.5??

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Mississippi State @ Arkansas -13 (I am going to be fading the [censored] out of Sly Croom and his luckbox)
Kentucky @ Georgia -6.5
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee -11
LSU -22 @ Ole Miss

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Ohio State -6 v. Michigan (Hart/Henne status anyone?)
West Virginia -3.5 v. Cincinnati
Boston College v. Clemson -7.5 (iggy's prediction of 7 seemed way high at first, but after looking at it, it made more sense)

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Iggy,

Doesn't it seem like that GT line is pretty high? (10.5)

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Just saw the early lines. I like Cincy +7, Oregon -13.5, Kentucky +8, and Clemson -6 quite a bit.

As for GT, I'm not even going to try this week. I was about 1-3 betting on them this year and then last week, when I bet against them I lost that too. Maybe I'll have an opinion on the total when it comes out as my O/U leans on GT have actually been pretty solid this year.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Arkansas -9.5
Oregon -13
Cincinnati +7
North Carolina +10.5
LSU -18
South Florida -6.5

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

[censored], fell asleep until just now. Got:

Tennessee -12
UNC +10
Bowling Green -2
Duke +5.5
Houston -11.5
Kentucky +8
Maryland +7.5
Oregon State PK
NC State +6
UNLV +17

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Can anyone explain why Arkansas is now favored by 10 against Miss. St? Croom and Co. have beat UK on the road (granted we played about the worst we possibly could have) and just beat Bama. Arkansas is an average team at best, despite having McFadden. I was thinking this line would be around Arkansas -3. What am I missing?

Also the UK line of +8 is tempting, but I would wait until we know if Little is going to play or not. The moneyline in this one may have a lot of value.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Duke +5.5, 1u

not taking Ark at -10.5.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Just a little ND/Duke ramble.

This is a really bad match up for Duke imo. Duke moves the ball almost exclusively through the air, where Notre Dame's defense is the strongest (I realize this is partially because teams run all over them and don't have to throw much). In addition, Duke's defense is near Navy level bad (not quite that bad,, but bad nonetheless). Notre Dame can and will score points. DOn't think I would take either team, maybe the over when it comes out.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

yeah, I think even ND fans are realizing ND is not worth betting on. Well set line this week on ND for once.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Just a little ND/Duke ramble.

This is a really bad match up for Duke imo. Duke moves the ball almost exclusively through the air, where Notre Dame's defense is the strongest (I realize this is partially because teams run all over them and don't have to throw much). In addition, Duke's defense is near Navy level bad (not quite that bad,, but bad nonetheless). Notre Dame can and will score points. DOn't think I would take either team, maybe the over when it comes out.

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Yeah, I agree with all this. On the other side of the ball, Duke's pass defense is worse than their run defense too and ND's a little more of a passing team. I actually think a fair line here is probably 6 or 6.5.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Can anyone explain why Arkansas is now favored by 10 against Miss. St? Croom and Co. have beat UK on the road (granted we played about the worst we possibly could have) and just beat Bama. Arkansas is an average team at best, despite having McFadden. I was thinking this line would be around Arkansas -3. What am I missing?

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You're just looking at wins and losses where MSU's got the same record as Arkansas against a slightly better schedule and assuming they're even. If you look at the margins of victory though, Arkansas's been way better. Sagarin predictor has Arkansas favored by 13 at home. Also, on the matchups side of things, MSU has a pretty vulnerable rush defense: 59th in the country.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Not sure if this makes it worth betting, but Kansas will be calling off the dogs early this week if they're able.

A lot of our guys are banged up. Our (Heisman hopeful?) QB, Reesing, was limping around the whole 2nd half this week. The best player on our defense, DT Mclinton, was also clearly banged up along with some other folks. The game next week vs Mizzou is probably our biggest game in almost 40 years. As soon as the game is secured the starters will be coming out.

On the other hand, I imagine KU could cover -26 against that ISU team without trying very hard.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

That's a good point. Kansas is in a great spot for a letdown playing the 2nd worst team in the Big XII the week before such a huge game. The only thing that would make it a little better is if they were playing on the road, but I still think it's worth at least a TD. Also, Iowa State's been playing much better toward the end of the season, beating Kansas State and Colorado the last two weeks. I think this is a great spot to take ISU +26.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Any comments on Oregon -12

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

UNC +10 1 Unit
NC ST +6 1 Unit
Kentucky +8 1 Unit
Arkansas -10 1 Unit
Oregon -12.5 1 Unit

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Any comments on Oregon -12

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Yes, I absolutely love Oregon there. Sagarin - TO margin*4 had Oregon favored by 16.5 and I don't see any matchup edge, injury, or motivational situation to make me think that's off at all. I think the public still doesn't realize quite how good Oregon is and as a result is afraid to give them as many points as they truly deserve.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Iggy,

I've been toying with including TO margin in my handicapping lines. What kind of equation are you using for it?

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Any comments on Oregon -12

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I am fairly shocked to see it that low.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Can anyone explain why Arkansas is now favored by 10 against Miss. St? Croom and Co. have beat UK on the road (granted we played about the worst we possibly could have) and just beat Bama. Arkansas is an average team at best, despite having McFadden. I was thinking this line would be around Arkansas -3. What am I missing?

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Mississippi State is a 3.5 win team that's running absurdly hot. They caught UK at the best possible time, with the most possible injuries, and then UK pretty much took a dump. They ran hot at Auburn, and ran hot again this week with a 101-yd INT return at the half to turn a 2-possession deficit into a 1-point lead. They had a whopping 215 yards in victory this week. Their offense is still one of the worst in the country.

Just two weeks ago, Arkansas was favored by 6 against South Carolina (who was favored by 14ish over MSU) and dominated them. Is it really that surprising that they'd be favored by a scant four more against a vastly inferior MSU team? Who, like SC, is stronger against the pass than the run?

Also, I agree that UK +8 is tempting, but like you I'd like to hear more about Little first, and even then it would only be a unit or two for me - UK has just looked awful the past couple weeks and I'm hoping the wind isn't out of their sails after being eliminated from the East race. As a fan I am hoping this will be a bit of a sandwich game between Auburn and GT, but considering we beat them last year and this will be their Senior Day, I don't know how likely that is. I also expect Moreno to slice and dice us, although at least they don't have a running QB.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

MSU +10 vs. Arkansas

Casey Dick is dreadful. Therefore, MSU will donate more defensive players to the run, which will have a better chance to stop McFadden and Jones. Every team should play like this vs. Arkansas.

Vandy +11.5

Earl Bennent=decent receiver. Tennesse pass Defense=Has anyone seen it this year?

Bama -25

I hate taking Bama, but if you're gonna take them, you might as well take them vs. a Lousiana Monroe team.

Boston College +7.5

I believe BC will win this game. If they don't, I think it will be a FG win.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

For Kentucky, Rafael Little is supposed to be practicing by the end of the week. Sounds like he will be good to go for Saturday.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

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Iggy,

I've been toying with including TO margin in my handicapping lines. What kind of equation are you using for it?

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The simplest equation is just to take the difference between the teams in average turnovers, multiply by 4 points (since that's the average value of a turnover), and then subtract from the team with the better TO margin. For the most part, treating turnovers as 100% luck is much more effective than trying to count them as half skill or even 25% skill.

While basically arguing with a brick wall in SE today though, I was looking over some data, and I think it might be effective to just add between 0.5 points and 1 point to a team that runs the ball a great deal and subtract 0.5 points to 1 point to teams that pass the ball a great deal since those are the key factors for TO margin. Using that adjustment, Oregon would be favored by 18 instead of 16.5 since Oregon is a heavy running team and Arizona is a very heavy passing team.

If you've got a good enough QB, you can adjust for that too, but the only QB in the country that I'd consider worth adjusting for this season is probably Brian Brohm. You need a way above average QB to make it even worth accounting for.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

I think if you use things like pts per poss, red zone, 3rd and 4th down efficiency, that captures all you need to know about TOs, I wouldn't model them separately.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Well yeah, looking at YPP (probably with the slight adjustment I mentioned for running and passing teams) is just as effective. I don't have any complex models though. I just take the Sagarin ratings and adjust them for turnovers to get a baseline, and then work from there to figure out the effect of injuries, matchups, motivation, etc.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

iggy, I'm coming at you in 2 threads here (unintentionally). From a purely handicapping perspective, is it really wise to call turnovers 100% luck?

Calling fumbles 100% luck seems iffy. Maybe I'm a square, but in the NFL where you see the same guys for many years at a time against pretty even competition it seems clear that certain guys fumble more than others.

Still, I would accept those being predominantly luck. Suggesting that going from a very good QB to a very bad QB won't affect your TO margin seems extremely counter-intuitive to me.

Finally, I'm curious how you feel about this hypothetical:
Team A +2 TO/gm through 10 gms
Team B -2 TO/gm through 10 gms
Prop Bet: Will Team A or Team B have the better TO margin the rest of the year? They play the same teams going forward. I'm betting on Team A every single time.

I'm totally on-board for discounting the TO margin, but something along the lines of 80% of offensive fumbles are "luck", and 50% of offensive INTs would be a more reasonable spot. I haven't addressed defense, but I would expect some small correlation there as well.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Sure I'd bet Team A at even money, but if you have say Team A who's +10 in turnovers on the year and Team B who's -10, I'll gladly take Team A +0.5 to have more turnovers in the game.

It's not that turnovers are 100% luck, but I'm usually rounding to the nearest half-point and they're enough luck that the actual skill portion would amount to less than a half-point per game. I said there are exceptions (Brohm at L'Ville and Hart and Henne at Michigan are both instances where you should adjust a point or so), but 90% of the time the past turnover data is not significant to future results.

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

Florida -15000 ML v FAU bet 15u to win 0.1u

yes...I believe Florida wins this well more than 99.34% of the time

Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
 

POTW: Purdue/Indiana o61.5 bet 2.2u to win 2u