25NL KK against a paired board
 

Villain is 38/10/4 over 100 hands



Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $26.35
CO: $10.25
BTN: $20.45
SB: $39.90
BB: $2.55
UTG: $23.85
UTG+1: $24.25
UTG+2: $27.60
MP1: $25.75

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.80</font>, BTN calls $1.80, BB folds

Turn: ($6.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $2.25</font>, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($10.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $6.80</font>, Hero?



I flat call the turn to let 10's and overpairs keep betting at me and to lose the minimum if he's got a 9. Do we fold river, or is our hand underrepped to the point where it's a must-call?

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I think your hand is underrepped. You only need the best hand here 40% of the time to make a call profitable, and with his high aggression numbers--especially for 25NL--I think he's betting with a lot of hands that you beat. I'd call here.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

Yeah, I call.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

This one looks pretty ugly. I bet more on this flop. I also bet the turn. As played you've gotta call the river.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

Im a little tired to run the maths but it looks like your probably behind on the turn.

Did you think about betting out on the turn? I am finding that against some LAGs checking a scary turn is just asking for a bet.

As played I dont hate your turn call but folding would also be fine.

On the river I just fold, although he is LAG only a retard bets JJ, QQ or a T for value here. (Im not saying you wont see those hands betting but they are more likely to check behind on that board)

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

Typo above. Pretty sure you only need to have best hand 30% of the time here.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

We are asking for a bet. Betting the turn is bad IMO. I'd be more inclined to bet here with KcKs.

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As played I dont hate your turn call but folding would also be fine.

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Wtf, Simple? For real? It's 1/3 pot and we have an overpair and we have the second nut flush draw.

The river is a call because a 30/10/4 sponges 55 and Ace high on this board. Also, all OESDs missed.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Typo above. Pretty sure you only need to have best hand 30% of the time here.

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I think even thats close, I still fold but I can see the argument for the call - its pretty close.

Being OOP SUCKSSS!!!!

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I'm not familiar with the term "sponges" Elaborate please? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

Yeah, sorry. Sponge is floating. Flat-calling on flop in position with weak or nothing hands to bet turn when checked to you. Nobody really uses it. I hate the word "floating" though.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I just think we value bet a donk like this until we get an indication we're behind. This donk is calling that flop bet with JT, QT, KT, etc., along with gutshot straights along with assorted pairs.

I know it's only 100 hands but with an aggro factor of 4 he is raising this turn when we're beat. As is, we give him a chance to take it away from us on the turn with that horrible bet (which he doesn't do).

No possible way to ever consider folding to that turn bet.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I may even block the river for $5ish to make sure I get value from JJ/QQ/AT--folding to any raise.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

[ QUOTE ]
We are asking for a bet. Betting the turn is bad IMO. I'd be more inclined to bet here with KcKs.

[ QUOTE ]
As played I dont hate your turn call but folding would also be fine.

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Wtf, Simple? For real? It's 1/3 pot and we have an overpair and we have the second nut flush draw.

The river is a call because a 30/10/4 sponges 55 on this board and Ace high on this board.

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Im a little fuzzy after a long session so your right folding is pretty nitty but not terrible -EV IMO.

I play with a lot of LAGs (good and bad) live and one thing I know is that they make things tough for you on scary boards.
In particular OOP with an overpair.

One thing I dont see him doing is betting the turn and river with anything we beat here.

I think one of the biggest leaks I ever had was getting attached to overpairs in situations like this.
This one is borderline but if the villan was betting 3/4 pot on the turn Im outta there.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

One other thing I forgot to mention regarding why I think the river is a fold - bet sizing.

The turn bet does not want you to go away, I think its a made flush at the very least.
Also the river looks like a value bet as well, I think he bets more with a busted draw and as I said checks behind 1 pair hands.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

The turn bet could also be something like AhT for value/pricing. River could well be a value bet, but villain could well be making a "value bet" with that same AhT. I felt it was really marginal either way and against a passive villain I'd probably fold river.