contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

villain is 22/18/2.5 over a very large mined/played sample. 3bets me a LOT in position without a ton of regard to opening position/donks behind in the blinds who could coldcall/etc. i am not positive about the last statement, but his frequencies suggest it. i try to return the favor a bit but am generally tamer pre and prefer to play postflop.

i run at 23/20/5 and he should have me at around that.

this is our first multistreet confrontation in a 3bet pot against him. we have not felted yet in a 3b pot. he has never seen me get caught making a huge bluff or get away with what is probably a bluff.

so:
1) if he checks, how much?
2) what range of river bet sizes may i shove over?

No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($621.70)
MP ($300)
CO ($1155.90)
Hero ($604.90)
SB ($433.50)
BB ($754.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $48</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $34.

Flop: ($102) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $63</font>, CO calls $63.

Turn: ($228) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: ($228) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

Why would you bet after he checks? You have the best hand a decent amount (straight draws missed and small pairs counterfeited), but few better hands will fold.

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

because i think he folds jacks and nines enough of the time? probably not queens, but he'll fold 99/JJ since i would valuebet QQ here (i am pretty sure he knows i am smart enough to do this, also)

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

bet like 150-175 to a check. i think you should have some decent FE v. many hands, might be nice for meta in future/etc.

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

Betting is pretty bad here.

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

chk chk chk

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

checking seems criminal to me. You have to balance the times you vbet a king here with the times you bluff

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
checking seems criminal to me. You have to balance the times you vbet a king here with the times you bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

lolllllllll

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checking seems criminal to me. You have to balance the times you vbet a king here with the times you bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

lolllllllll

[/ QUOTE ]

? Im on a day fade here, but I didnt think my post was lol worthy?

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checking seems criminal to me. You have to balance the times you vbet a king here with the times you bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

lllllllllol

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

to be honest, i'd generally check here.

if i bet, i bet $170-$180. that's the amount i'd tend to value bet with AK.

given the described dynamic, i can't really see myself shoving over a bet here. if i were to consider this, i don't think i'd read much into his bet sizing.

maybe i am just a pansy?

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checking seems criminal to me. You have to balance the times you vbet a king here with the times you bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

lolllllllll

[/ QUOTE ]

? Im on a day fade here, but I didnt think my post was lol worthy?

[/ QUOTE ]

i believe what they are getting at is that this is overbalancing. i'm metagame-obsessed, but it's important not to overthink/overdo it.

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

It shows a total lack of understanding about the concept of 'balancing' your range. Your objective with balancing is to make sure you're not too predictable. But you still have to consider his hand range and other dynamics.

In short, you're not bluffing, because he's probably not folding enough, given the player dynamics. You're not value betting, because its unlikely he'll call with Q hi. So the only way meta game comes into it is if you bet and he calls, which is a waste of a lot of money just to prove that you "could" bluff here. If you bet and he folds, it won't assist you on later hands.

A more appropriate hand to metagame bet here would be something like 55, because you do have a small edge as a bluff, plus if called its good for your image too. The reason I lollllled is because everyone just cites metagame as a reason to make bonehead plays with considering the classic river dynamics.

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

wasnt citing metagame, was trying to come from a more game theoretical standpoint, but u have a point. Although I think Op said that he beleives a bet will fold out 99 and JJ which means theres some value to a bluff right?

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

Well, its either a good value bet with KK or a good bluff with A hi. Do you know which?

Re: contemplating a bluff, semi-deep
 

Don't check the turn and your problem is solved. Why did you not double barrel?