$114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

UTG isn't very good, but has a PXF or CashmanBrian avatar. I have his preflop stats and they are not standard tag, but not laggy.
9 handed 10/20

UTG raises t80, I call UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], BTN overcalls.
Flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He bets 160, I call, BTN folds.

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Check, check.

River is a 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
He bet 300, I shove.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

are you trying to push him off JJ and QQ here?

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

well, c-betting into two opponents so JJ+ is pretyy likely.

turn check - AA would fire again, so take that out.

river - value/block bet, so as manchild said, try to get QQ/JJ to fold, and most would fold, especially those with PFX avatars that have are decent.

i could see someone playing AK/99/88 in a similar manner although a lot of players do not c-bet missed AK flops.

i'm guessing this is pretty close to neutral EV.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Maybe he went for a c/r with AK on the turn, so Im not ruling it out. I think we get another bet from 99/88.
AK,QQ,JJ.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

He has JJ-KK, probably KK. Seriously doubt he's folding river. Small possibility of AK/99/88.

But then again your Post subject puts him on 33.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Suzzer,
If he has a range of JJ-KK and he only calls river with KK river shove is +EV since he will fold 80% of the time. I think his turn check percentage with JJ-QQ is much higher than his turn check percentage with AK/99/88. I'm confused how you think I think he has 44?
What is the worst hand I value shove here?
AK? AA? 33?

Edit: Also this thread has a lot of views, but very few replies. Commenting on difficult hands and being wrong is a lot better for your game than 904390423 posting LOLZ snap call or LOLZ can you believe this guy thinks he should play for first.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

I don't think folding out QQ/JJ here is worth the risk of going broke when he does have AA/AK/99/88.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

It might be ok in a vacuum (I think it's close at best), but I suspect if you played with the same people very often and made this play all the time, it'd become quite -EV.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

value raise flop to 400? it is a difficult hand

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

I'm not shoving the river here. I would need to get him fold more than half of the time (he is not calling with anything that we beat). It sure looks like villain has QQ/JJ and he is folding those to a river shove most of the time. But his range includes a lot of other hands too (sometimes some very strangely played hands like KQo/33 ... too) + he is calling with QQ/JJ here sometimes too.

But the number one reason for not shoving here is that i like to avoid early on situations that are highly speculative to be +EV.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Suzzer,
If he has a range of JJ-KK and he only calls river with KK river shove is +EV since he will fold 80% of the time. I think his turn check percentage with JJ-QQ is much higher than his turn check percentage with AK/99/88. I'm confused how you think I think he has 44?
What is the worst hand I value shove here?
AK? AA? 33?

Edit: Also this thread has a lot of views, but very few replies. Commenting on difficult hands and being wrong is a lot better for your game than 904390423 posting LOLZ snap call or LOLZ can you believe this guy thinks he should play for first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he bet 300 with JJ/QQ? Value bet? I think check/call would be a much more profitable line for him. But if he's gonna donk bet it like that, then I have no guarantee he's going to fold getting over 2-1. More likely your shove is going to fold out a hand you were ahead of anyway.

I agree his turn check % with AK or a set is low. That's why I said low prob. But sometimes they do that after leading a flop 3-handed with a set, to try to induce you to bet.

I said had 33 not 44, because with the title of the thread maybe you meant something ridiculous happened.

I never try to put villians on putting me on a hand unless I know them well. You said he isn't very good. I doubt he's hand-reading you.

He showed major strength before the flop, on the flop, and decent strength on the river. Turn is weird. But 3 out of 4 strong bets means I'm not counting on him to fold.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Vbetting the river with JJ/QQ is so standard. I almost never have a king. Check call I might vbet worse, but I never have a bluff.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Yeah he could be value betting. I just would like a read that he's a better player to actually put you on something like TT. Most people just play their cards, or try to get deceptive with monsters. I want a positive read this guy is really thinking before I put him on a thin VB here.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Suzzer,
I have a read that he is decent and JJ/QQ aren't thin here.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

If he thinks you're a calling station then fine.

But if he's good like you say, and supposedly he thinks you're good--then he's repping that he's repping a K (IE - repping a post-oak bluff), thinking you will look him up. I dunno. I can count on zero hands the times I've done that or had it done to me in a SNG, at least that I can recall.

You'd pretty much have to put him on making a bluff that looks like a value bet pretending to be a post-oak bluff (double-reverse-post-oak?) to call there. Way too many levels for a SNG IMO.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Although I don't think it's hard to imagine him value betting JJ or QQ here, I'm not sure how to weigh that likelihood compared to him checking AK/set. I think JJ or QQ is a good bet, and you have your read, but many people would miss it. I would prefer to bet a set or AK, but many people wouldn't necessarily. A set might figure they'll lose you here, and AK might fear losing value/want to control the pot fearing your flop call. An important factor to me is what his preflop range is in the first place. You say he's between standard tag and lag, could he show up with AQ/AJ/66 type hands that he's bluffing with? I would just be folding these types of hands UTG, but if he can have them it complicates matters significantly.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

To everyone you realize the difference between QQ and AK is based on me having like K9s or floating AK.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

people,

can anyone posting anything about this hand at minimum produce 2 pieces of information?

1) what you thing opp has
2) what you think opp thinks hero has

thanks,

c

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

1) KK, maybe JJ or QQ, lesser chance of set on flop or AK

2) If villian is a 2p2 clone - TT/JJ or weirdly played AK or monster.

If villian is just a standard regular then I rarely try to assume that he'll put us on a tight range preflop (no suited connectors, suited aces, etc.) Or that he'll assume we won't slowplay a set, etc. When you take away that info. he really doesn't have much clue what we have. Which makes it hard for me to see him putting pudge on TT or JJ and value-betting JJ or QQ here. But I guess in that case he could just be betting because he thinks he's good, and he's not thinking about what pudge might actually call with.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Pudge, your line doesnt make any sense for having a monster. Obv its easy to say since i know ur hand.

I think i only played very few hands in my life with you, so i dont know ur game at all. But i assume ur playing a somewhat standart early sng-game.

- Your calling range on that flop is pretty much 88-QQ. I dunno how u play sets, but i think you would have at least bet the turn, if u have chosen to sloplay on the flop.
(Even if u slowplay AA\KK pre, u pretty much pop it up on the flop prolly)

-I dont think u call pre with 22\33 and u most likely rr with kings. So, i dunno, but you simply have to be FOS on that river. Maybe u show up a small % with a tricky played 88\99, but if Villain is thinking he snaps with JJ-AA\AK, cuz they are basically the same hands in this spot and u are either FOS or have a set. And since u have the set only a low %,...Obv his range is more weighted towards JJ-QQ, but that doesnt really matter.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

wow, i don't really get those ranges at all. perhaps i suck.

preflop, i put the guy on like: any two face cards any pair 77+
flop, i think he bets all of those hands much of the time
turn i think many people check all of those hands all of the time. maybe they bet AA or something sometime. but i think that people who hit the K here checkraise too much, and people who didn't hit the K here check a lot too.
river, i narrow his range. i think he has some part of the board now. i think that he has a king, and it's weighted towards his worst kings because although many people check almost everything on the turn, kings bet most frequently. he could have a hand like JT too, but i think he probably bets less with JT if he bets, and if he has any other bluff type hand like AJ AQ he bluffs with less too.

i think that most people assume that pudge has some big cards or a pair preflop
on the flop they put him on any pair, or a small likelihood of a float
on the turn i think they assume he doesn't have a king in his hand

so on the river i think the guy is bluffing rarely, and thinks he has the best hand a lot. i think that almost no one folds a king here ever. i think that QQ JJ have a hard time folding to the action as played, as does TT.

my guess on this hand is that the guy had Kx or a wackilly played set (lol), pudge got ownd, and that he has moved to cashaments for like 24 hours, tops.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Cit, when a tag-ish regular makes it 4BB UTG at level 1, I put him on a much tighter range than that. 88+,AQ+, weighted to TT+/AK. Also for some reason they seem to make it 4BB with stuff like JJ-KK more than AQ or AK, or the lower PPs.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

I like Suzzers preflop range. Maybe a little wider with stupid stuff thrown in occasionally.
I have a very narrow shoving range. I can def have 88/99 the only bluffs I guess I could have are TT/JJ, which are both very unlikely.
I think the turn check is much more likely OH NOEZ an overcard hit than I'm going to get creative and trap with AK.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Good point, I for one realize this. I was hoping to point out that since I think he can have AK, this increases the # of hands he can have of the same medium strength. Since I think he can have a set, that adds more hands that aren't folding. As an aside I do think people are more likely to call AK than QQ even though it doesn't really make any sense. I wouldn't make the play expecting him to fold either of these hands.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

1) I think opponent, if he opens something like 88+AQs+ utg, has 88-QQ/AK or perhaps a bluff with exactly AQs if he cont. bet it. Everything else in his range is value betting, what he would fold is not completely clear, but I wouldn't bet on him folding much of it. Since OP mentioned that he is between tag and lag, I'm curious (and asked) if more hands like AJ, 66, JTs might be in his range. I normally rely on stats for information like this. If these hands are in his range, perhaps he is bluffing with some of them, and the river decision seems more interesting to me.

2) Assuming hero is standard, I would expect him to have exactly 88-QQ generally, basically never AK, occasionally 66-77, occasionally KK/AA. The less standard the opponent plays, the less I would rely upon his thought process and the more basic I would play.

Any pointers regarding my thought process would be appreciated.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
wow, i don't really get those ranges at all. perhaps i suck.

preflop, i put the guy on like: any two face cards any pair 77+
flop, i think he bets all of those hands much of the time
turn i think many people check all of those hands all of the time. maybe they bet AA or something sometime. but i think that people who hit the K here checkraise too much, and people who didn't hit the K here check a lot too.
river, i narrow his range. i think he has some part of the board now. i think that he has a king, and it's weighted towards his worst kings because although many people check almost everything on the turn, kings bet most frequently. he could have a hand like JT too, but i think he probably bets less with JT if he bets, and if he has any other bluff type hand like AJ AQ he bluffs with less too.

i think that most people assume that pudge has some big cards or a pair preflop
on the flop they put him on any pair, or a small likelihood of a float
on the turn i think they assume he doesn't have a king in his hand

so on the river i think the guy is bluffing rarely, and thinks he has the best hand a lot. i think that almost no one folds a king here ever. i think that QQ JJ have a hard time folding to the action as played, as does TT.

my guess on this hand is that the guy had Kx or a wackilly played set (lol), pudge got ownd, and that he has moved to cashaments for like 24 hours, tops.

[/ QUOTE ]

cit, i never played $109s really but most semi-bad players will dump QQ/JJ here b/c its not top pair anymore wouldnt they? Or do you think most players who will v-bet those hands will hand-read well-enough to call here?

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

futuredoc,

in general i believe in the rule that your opponent is only bad in the way he's bad. if he's bad in the way that he's going to rock up and fold QQ on the river, he's not betting it. i think that the people who decide to vbet the river here (and no one is bluffing the river here with QQ/JJ obviously) are bad in the way that they don't fold because they decided that their hand was good, and that's why they vbet it.

also, coach me at cash, mkay?

c

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

If villain is decent he should realise that JJ=AA here. In both cases once pudge shoves the river both those hands prob aren't good. Just think for a minute about pudge's range once he gets to the river and how few bluffs there are in that range. Also people who dont think a set is possible for Pudge are way off. This board is so dry, checking a set on the turn is fine and def something that most ppl will do sometimes.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

eagles,

i think that it's possible for pudge to have a set here, but that there's a lot of pairs he can have that aren't sets too. i don't think that most "decent" players fold anything that has a king in this hand, and while they're busy not folding king hands, i also think they basically never think pudge has king, and don't believe in sets once they put in 1/3 of their stack.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

At first, this looked like a spew to me. Well not spew, but marginal either way.
After thinking more about it, I would assume Pudge's range on the river is something like 88-QQ almost all of the time.
Probably polarized towards TT/JJ, but still - villain calling with JJ/QQ does not sound as good as I first thought.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

i would let the hand go ofter the turn card. mayb its to weak but i dont like playing TT raised with no T on board this early.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Cit,
THe thing is its very easy to narrow down pudge's range because his pf range here is so narrow. Calling a 4x UTG raise UTG+1 his range is pretty small. Lets assume its AQ+ 22+ is the absolute widest it would be. I'd probably say its narrower something like AK+ 77+. However it doesn't really matter because both of these ranges play the same postflop in this specific hand.
Now once he gets to the flop UTG cbets into 3 people Pudge will fold all hands worse than TT and call or raise with everything else. The turn is a King villain checks. Now pudge's range on the turn is basically 99/88 TT-AA and we can discount AA/KK because he'd 3bet pf sometimes.
So His range is mainly 88-QQ. Given this the only way AA is ever good on the river is if pudge is turning TT-QQ into a bluff which an unkwon can't really put him on.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cit,
THe thing is its very easy to narrow down pudge's range because his pf range here is so narrow. Calling a 4x UTG raise UTG+1 his range is pretty small. Lets assume its AQ+ 22+ is the absolute widest it would be. I'd probably say its narrower something like AK+ 77+. However it doesn't really matter because both of these ranges play the same postflop in this specific hand.
Now once he gets to the flop UTG cbets into 3 people Pudge will fold all hands worse than TT and call or raise with everything else. The turn is a King villain checks. Now pudge's range on the turn is basically 99/88 TT-AA and we can discount AA/KK because he'd 3bet pf sometimes.
So His range is mainly 88-QQ. Given this the only way AA is ever good on the river is if pudge is turning TT-QQ into a bluff which an unkwon can't really put him on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never give someone the benefit of knowing how tight my range is until they've proven they are decent. In this hand, villain is pretty well unknown so we can't assume he knows Pudge has a very tight pf range.


Also, if Pudge shoves the river with TT then I don't see why he won't float the flop with some hands. If he's playing ABC 2+2 SNG style then it's very easy to narrow his range. However, if I ever see a player make a FPS move like shoving the river here with TT then there's absolutely no way I'd ever fold AA on the river.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I never give someone the benefit of knowing how tight my range is until they've proven they are decent. In this hand, villain is pretty well unknown so we can't assume he knows Pudge has a very tight pf range.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's what I've been trying to say. Not clear enough I guess.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

Ya my bluff range and vbetting range here are incredibly narrow since my whole hand range is so narrow. Bluff range is exactly TT-JJ and that is a small percent of the time. V betting range is 88-99, KK/AA/AK a small percentage of the time. I give credit for most villains to bet QQ/JJ here and very few will call here because they have midpair, eventhough they really don't. My read here is better than people think it's not like this is vs. Spacegravy or Gramps who's game I have a very good understanding of, but I think I had played like 50-100 sngs with this guy, maybe less but at least also if I get looked up here depending on the table I will start getting looked up so light. I remember there was a period of time where I three bet regs with AA/KK and A2s, I never went to showdown with A2s, but if I did I could probably three bet QQ and snap call 4bet shoves for the next month or so.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

So what happened and why did this hand make you move to cash?

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

He folded. It made me move to cash because I realized I was thinking way too much and getting way too fpsy for sngs.

Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
 

If you thought and fps'ed too much, I'm thinking it would hurt your results. Here it seems to've produced the outcome you wanted. Smurf confused.