5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Villan in this hand runs about 18/15. Nothing out of line from either of us yet. His attempt to steal is about 20% (low side). His flop and turn aggression are quite high, river relatively low and overall is 3.4. River sucks balls. Plan was to shove any card below 9 that wasnt a club and figure it out for the rest.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($2434.84)
BB ($1000)
UTG ($2800.97)
MP ($1025)
CO ($215)
Button ($2351)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $125</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $90.

Flop: ($260) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $165</font>, Button calls $165.

Turn: ($590) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $400</font>, Button calls $400.

River: ($1390) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button calls $1661 (All-In)

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

disconnect protect?

no, i think i fold.

What makes you want to call here? no sarcasm serious question...

I just dont know what hands hes valueshoving that are worse than AA apart from KK maybe, but i think KK will pop you on the flop and 4b pf a decent amount.

Also i dont know what hes bluffing with apart from 53s, Do you think hes good enough to bluff with 55 - 77, or other pairs?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

You're getting bluffed here some percentage of the time, I think the player's disposition plays a big role in whether or not he turns 77 into a bluff. After all he still beats AK, so he may be more willing to take a freeshowdown.

Note: Everybody at 2/4 3/6 seems to pay off here, so that probably makes it a fold.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Meh, the fact that a good player should probably turn something like 99 into a bluff by the river makes me want to call. But he might be overcome by the fact that 99 beats Ak and check it back even though he probably shouldnt on that river. If I had a set here id probably value shove myself. So my hand is pretty defined as one pair right? Given what my hand is defined ass, AA is the strongest part of that and if he is playing well and realizes my range he should be shoving as a bluff alot because the only things I can call with are AA AQ KK. I doubt hes value shoving KK because he doesnt need to turn that into a bluff and there isnt so much value, but it is possible.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, the fact that a good player should probably turn something like 99 into a bluff by the river makes me want to call. But he might be overcome by the fact that 99 beats Ak and check it back even though he probably shouldnt on that river. If I had a set here id probably value shove myself. So my hand is pretty defined as one pair right? Given what my hand is defined ass, AA is the strongest part of that and if he is playing well and realizes my range he should be shoving as a bluff alot because the only things I can call with are AA AQ KK. I doubt hes value shoving KK because he doesnt need to turn that into a bluff and there isnt so much value, but it is possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

why are you shoving a set and not aa? how do they differ here besides when villain has specifically qt? i think your frequencies are off in this spot if i'm understanding you correctly.

as far as the hand goes i think you should bet slightly bigger on flop and turn so the river stacks are slightly less than a psb. as it is i'd fold, though there certainly is an argument for calling against many opponents.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

because he could easily have a lower set and that makes up a good amount of his range on this board.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
because he could easily have a lower set and that makes up a good amount of his range on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which he takes a freeshowdown with? I think chewy is right. You are hung out to dry with AA if he bets and you've got to figure out if he bluffs too much or too little.

Edit. JT is the same hand as AA here so, if I called with AA, I would call with JT too.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I dont think he has a set often at all.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

i think he's turning a 99 or JJ into a bluff here often enough for you to call this. As you said your hand is pretty defined as one pair which makes it an easy bluff shove from him.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think he's turning a 99 or JJ into a bluff here often enough for you to call this. As you said your hand is pretty defined as one pair which makes it an easy bluff shove from him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes turning JJ into a bluff??? wtf?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

i check the turn. river is probably a call, tho it would help to hold the Ac or not have the queen river.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I'd raise more preflop, you guys are deep and you should adjust you 3-bets to stack sizes. On the flop I'd bet more as well, turn bet is fine, river is a fold. If hes a good player that will turn 99 into a bluff so be it. But I dont think he calls the turn with that kind of hand and then turns it into a bluff on the river.

So he's prolly not valuebetting worse here.

Fold

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I like a turn check. If he bets, call. If checked through, b/f river.

As played, fold river. Most 18/15 are turning 77 or whatever into bluff.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Him turning a pair into a bluff would mean he calls the turn to do that exactly. I see villain doing this hardly ever. I would say QQ is his most likely hand by the river, followed by a bluff and slowplayed sets. I don`t think he pushs KK either.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I can't call this river.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

why would he ever overbet the river for value when hed get called pretty light on a 1/2 PSB?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Him turning a pair into a bluff would mean he calls the turn to do that exactly.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not true really. He can call the turn knowing that HERO probably bets AK and other airhands often enough to make a turncall profitable. And when a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits he may think that hero will fold a big part of his range (including the big pairs that would be way more likely to c/c a riverbet on a blank)

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Could a block bet of 600 have any value here on the river?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I would probably bet 900 and fold to a push but wouldnt feel comfortable about bet/folding 600.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

bet/folding getting 1:5 is .. er, pretty atrocious.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like a turn check. If he bets, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't c/r better than c/c?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]

Edit. JT is the same hand as AA here so, if I called with AA, I would call with JT too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like a turn check. If he bets, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't c/r better than c/c?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, it is. i just dont know what betting ever accomplishes, assuming hero is most likely folding to a push (i anticipate this).

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I wasnt saying that it was best, thats why I had a ? mark at the end. But it is an option. There just may not be enough room in stacks for it to be viable. If you do bet 600-900ish, even getting 5:1 villain isnt bluffshoving on that almost ever. Matt may be correct that 900 is best, whatever amount that is big enough that villain would almost never shove weaker and that we could still consider folding after. I dont really like any line here much, I think this hand would be saved with better betsizing on prior streets. Our check on the river, really looks like we're holding a "I WILL C/F" sign.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

hmmmm his river overbet is making me want to call.. i think value bets less with a flush or set.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

He shoves a set or flush if he` s good.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I think i fold here

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Only thing that makes me wanna call this is that I find it very unlikely villain shows up with a flush here.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Our check on the river, really looks like we're holding a "I WILL C/F" sign.

[/ QUOTE ]

betting 600 is holding a "I WILL B/F" sign too IMO...

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

wtf?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

ya.

i just realized how small a raise that would be though.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

bet ~700, fold to shove

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

ehhh this is brutal but I think it's is a fold. when he calls the turn he is either drawing to a flush or has already made a set. He might have JJ-KK but in that case he wont shove river.

Most Ts and midpairs fold out turn, if he did call your turn bet light then that's a pretty sweet card for him to bluff at, but like you said he has been playing straightforward. More importantly, your hand is very transparent (QQ-AA) so he probably isnt trying to get you off it since most ppl dont fold overpairs.

edit: so c/f river.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

After missing a flop-raise from your opponent, I hate your turn size bet.

With that said, I'm calling river. But wait, what hands do I put him on for me to call river? The double float? Ok, I fold and pretended I had AKo so I don't go on tilt.

Edit: I forgot to include Villain's hand ranges that contain 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with its sooted cousins and connectors. Now it's more of a fold. But I'm still tilted from the hand because I love aces and aces don't lose.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

think he has QQ ?

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, the fact that a good player should probably turn something like 99 into a bluff by the river makes me want to call. But he might be overcome by the fact that 99 beats Ak and check it back even though he probably shouldnt on that river. If I had a set here id probably value shove myself. So my hand is pretty defined as one pair right? Given what my hand is defined ass, AA is the strongest part of that and if he is playing well and realizes my range he should be shoving as a bluff alot because the only things I can call with are AA AQ KK. I doubt hes value shoving KK because he doesnt need to turn that into a bluff and there isnt so much value, but it is possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

why are you shoving a set and not aa? how do they differ here besides when villain has specifically qt? i think your frequencies are off in this spot if i'm understanding you correctly.

as far as the hand goes i think you should bet slightly bigger on flop and turn so the river stacks are slightly less than a psb. as it is i'd fold, though there certainly is an argument for calling against many opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think he has a set often at all.


[/ QUOTE ]

two best posts in the thread

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

got to fold not worth it

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

ahnuld, you can't put 200 bbs in with one pair, ask apestyles

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

Fold, not worth it, he simply isn't on a move often enough to justify calling, for the times you are running into sets/flushes etc.

Re: 5/10 deep AA tough river
 

I fold... I don't think many pple at 5/10 will get tricky with mid pp here as they beat AK and that is about all you beat.