Massive Hero fold
 

I think I need my ass kicked by you guys. I'm getting a gajillion to one on this river with the nut straight. I'm also 99.99996% sure he was on a club draw, since my read is he likes to jam draws on the flop, and the turn action pretty much turned his hand face up IMO.

Still, despite all that, is this fold nevertheless unforgivable since it's an online 6max game?

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP calls, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#FF0000">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero caps!</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13.00 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Button raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#FF0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Button caps!</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (25.00 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, Hero folds...

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

I'm having a hard time coming up with another hand that he could have, but I'd still have a hard time folding this in this ginormous pot. I don't think you have to worry about button raising behind you, unless he's a moron.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

noooo dont fold

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

don't fold! It's a 26BB pot and you have a very good hand. You don't think you are good here 4% of the time?

edit: well, obviously you don't think so, but... don't you think you can be wrong 4% of the time?

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

I don´t like the flop cap. Assuming we have 0% FE and Button and SB will call the cap 100% of the time, we need about 10 outs to make this play slightly +EV(roughly calculated).

I also don´t fold the river - this is like "[censored] you! i call!"

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

its fine.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Well yes, BB's play looks like pumping the pot with with a FD on the flop, then just calling with it on the turn when equity drops, and then leading the river to ensure it isn't checked through. I doubt you are ahead that 4% of the time.

BTN could have a set or twopair or the same straight as you do.

I think the biggest reason for calling in the end is, at least for me personally, that I'd probably go on a monkey tilt if I folded the best hand on the river in a pot this big. It is only a 1 BB mistake that avoids a lot of bigger mistakes from tilting...

And it is 6-max so give him the benefit of doubt.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Folding here will get more observant opponents to start playing back at you more on the river, either and and out of position. This is awful.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don´t like the flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Capping this against a large field is awesome.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don´t like the flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Capping this against a large field is awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain why.

Assuming we have 0% FE, Button and SB will call the cap 100% of the time, ignoring implied odds:

We need at least 33% equity on the flop if we want to cap - actually more bc we have to pay to see the river.

Stoving a unrealistic best-case scenario:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

733,055,400 games 14.985 secs 48,919,279 games/sec

Board: 3c Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.393% 30.57% 00.82% 224122798 6005851.00 { QcTs }
Hand 1: 32.396% 32.17% 00.23% 235814082 1667764.00 { 7c2c }
Hand 2: 18.105% 17.31% 00.80% 126893996 5828456.50 { random }
Hand 3: 18.105% 17.31% 00.80% 126893996 5828456.50 { random }

Button and SB range are much stronger than "random" after CC the flop.

Did i make a mistake? Wrong thought process?
- I´m ready to learn.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
We need at least 33% equity on the flop if we want to cap

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 33%? There are 4 to the turn, so hero pays 25% of the pot. If he gets back more than those 25% on average capping shows profit.

-Fluffy_Shark

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

740,460 games 0.046 secs 16,096,956 games/sec

Board: 3c 9c Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.906% 23.56% 00.35% 174421 2590.00 { QcTs }
Hand 1: 33.156% 32.84% 00.32% 243161 2347.33 { Kc2c }
Hand 2: 33.785% 33.24% 00.54% 246154 4007.33 { KdJd }
Hand 3: 09.154% 08.56% 00.59% 63384 4395.33 { random }


---


kabooom and u have less equity.

what i want to say: to take 2 random hands is pretty ... stupid?

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We need at least 33% equity on the flop if we want to cap

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 33%? There are 4 to the turn, so hero pays 25% of the pot. If he gets back more than those 25% on average capping shows profit.

-Fluffy_Shark

[/ QUOTE ]

You can´t count Hero´s BB, since it´s no profit. Hero is risking 1 BB more on the flop to possibly win 3.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We need at least 33% equity on the flop if we want to cap

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 33%? There are 4 to the turn, so hero pays 25% of the pot. If he gets back more than those 25% on average capping shows profit.

-Fluffy_Shark

[/ QUOTE ]

You can´t count Hero´s BB, since it´s no profit. Hero is risking 1 BB more on the flop to possibly win 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL
we need at least 25.00000000000000000001 equity

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
what i want to say: to take 2 random hands is pretty ... stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Stoving a unrealistic best-case scenario"

"Button and SB range are much stronger than "random" after CC the flop." [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Just wanted to point out that even if SB and Button are total idiots - we don´t have enough equity.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

dude in your example we have enough equity.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

25% xerber. Not 33%

Pretty basic stuff

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Oh good lord I no way fold this. Is this a joke? Sets, Same straights. I'd call that for a quarter of the pot size.

Did you REALLY fold this?!?! How does the turn tell you he has a flush draw? Why cant he have QT?

Edit: I misread the hand. Ok - nowhere near as bad as I first thought, but I still call.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

If you can say with 99% certainty that he has the flush then I guess its a fold, but if your say 96% sure then its a call.

I think in the long run without a definitive read (only bets with stone nuts that this is a call. If you get some other calls you actually need to be right less than 4%

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

yeah u guys are right, don´t know what i was thinking

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

lol, no way I fold this.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Good fold. Hate the flop cap. Don't even love the flop raise.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

I never ever fold this. It's a one BB mistake (not even that) and folding the best hand here is just a disaster.

Plus an observant opponents might make a similar play at you in the future which you don't want if you keep folding here.

Furthermore I don't raise the flop.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Plus an observant opponents might make a similar play at you in the future which you don't want if you keep folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really overrated concept, IMO. If you fold here everyone is just gonna assume you were FOS and if you make these big folds once every 20K hands, this situation isn't all that likely to come up again against players who witnessed this hand anyway.

That said I don't fold here, but kudos to OP if he did and was right.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Don't like the flop raise, the river fold has to be close getting these odds, but it's not a fold I'd make. I think BB will bluff the river [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] often enough to make this a call.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

You should claim that your cat jumped on your keyboard...

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

I cant see anybody outright bluffing into a 25BB pot into 2 people and thinking it will be profitable in the long run. Both players are almost never folding here...especially not enough to make the bluff +ev.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see anybody outright bluffing into a 25BB pot into 2 people and thinking it will be profitable in the long run. Both players are almost never folding here...especially not enough to make the bluff +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be "bluffing" with 2 pair or a set here. You could change the bluff part in your sentence and say "I cannot believe anybody would think [insert retarded play here] would be profitable" about a ton of plays made by bad players at every table I sit at. The thing here is that you have to be insanely sure he has the flush to make this a fold given the odds we're getting on a call. I don't think I've ever been this sure about an opponents play and there's pretty much always more than a 4% chance of someone making a weirdo play. That said I don't think this fold is anywhere near unforgivable. I just think it's close and that I'd call.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Ok I guess I needed clarification of what you meant by bluffing.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

Yeah, my bad.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hate the flop cap. Don't even love the flop raise.



[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it was coming.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hate the flop cap. Don't even love the flop raise.



[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it was coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm having a hard time figuring out which of our outs can be cleaned up. i guess AT and AQ might fold for 2 cold sometimes.

or is this a straight value raise because you know the other two are never folding?

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

spite call imo... or not .. whatver

agree that jamming flop is bad, 6 outs to the nuts, 2 tainted outs, and possible FH redraws do not give you an equity edge and you'll never get a free river card

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

even i might call this

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

i call ... and not just because i dont think i have a fold button


what if he had a set... or a worse straight... or its a tie?

plus you have showdown value with that str8

zomg plz call

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]

what if he had a set... or a worse straight... or its a tie?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong, but just try a little hand reading. Put him on something, given that he jammed the flop and shut down completely on the turn. Then ask yourself if any player who is capable of playing the flop that way would play the turn that way with the hands you think I can beat or chop with.

EDIT: I know I asked for the ass-kicking, but I'm just playing my own advocate in this post because while I like the posts which say "it's close, but I'd pay off," I don't like the posts which just say "ZOMG U have straight, call! He might have a set" because they do seem to uncover a lack of hand-reading skills.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
spite call imo... or not .. whatver

agree that jamming flop is bad, 6 outs to the nuts, 2 tainted outs, and possible FH redraws do not give you an equity edge and you'll never get a free river card

[/ QUOTE ]


also can toss in the slimmish chance that you might only be drawing to a split-pot anyway.

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here will get more observant opponents to start playing back at you more on the river, either and and out of position. This is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way to lift the phrase "more observant opponents" (in this context) and the spirit of the first sentence straight out of 2+2 literature!

--Nate

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

I think its an excellent fold, although probably not one that I'm personally cabable of making in such a big pot. I do believe it is the correct play given how the BB check/called 2 big bets on the turn after that flop action, when is that ever not a flush draw?

I think alot of people are forgetting that we dont close the action here, the button is still to act behind us and after the action he put in on the turn he may well raise.

So for all the people who are saying that this is an easy call, what are you doing if say the button raises then the BB 3bets? are we folding then? Or are we just calling down blindly since we had the nuts on the turn? remember there are no prizes for 2nd place here....

Re: Massive Hero fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
I never ever fold this. It's a one BB mistake (not even that) and folding the best hand here is just a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]