the lottery
 

My thoughts are a little hard to explain but I will do my best.

Obviously, if we were immortals, playing the lotto is -EV as there is a HUGE rake by the government/lottery officials. For most of my adult life, I`ve stayed away from the lotto figuring I`m better off playing poker with the $ because I am a (slightly) winning player. Recently it has occured to me that maybe playing the lotto isn`t necessarly as worthless as it may seem reasoning is as follows:

Where I live there are 3 draws per week and they each cost $2 so a year`s worth of lotto is $312 from previous experience and that of my relatives and friends I`d say you`ll probably win back around $30-$40 a year. (Someone else is welcome to do the math if they want) So say it costs $270 a year and lets say I play for 40 years (at a certain age I think winning would have less of a total life impact) for a total life cost of $10,800. Now this is a decent sum of money but most individuals are likely to waist this sum in their lives anyway: smoking, impulse buys whatever....

Now my question is this: Given we only live once (most people believe this anyway) and that we could spend less than 11k (not even couting winning 4/6 or 5/7 which usually pay a couple of hundred) for the chance of changing our lives completly, is the lotto 'worth' it, simply beacause in a lifetime you wouldn`t spend as much as you would potentially win?

Don`t get me wrong, I`m not advocating playing every draw for $40 or something. Just one ticket. Sorry if this post makes no sense, I tried to make my point as clear as possible and I appriciate all feedback so flame away.

Re: the lottery
 

the lotto is a horrible bet - you will never win anyway, huge taxes, interactions with friends/family/strangers generally changed for the worse, etc. Nearly all lotto winners go back to their original financial condition within 5 years FYI.

Put that $11K in a mutual fund now and consider yourself the wiser.

Re: the lottery
 

meh, I buy the occasional ticket for fun.

Re: the lottery
 

Go to the roulette table and place a $10000 bet on a single number, if you win put the entire $350k on it again

Less -EV

Re: the lottery
 

I get what your point is but nobody on here will get it.
Its TWO bucks, you could spend it on a tip, fall out of your pocket, coffee, it doesnt mean anything...its ONLY two bucks. If you add it up over the years its alot yah but if a person is that much of a nit they probaly save their pennies in jars and drive across town to save a dollar because "they have a coupon".
Now IF you win that will change your life forever. And what did you do? Nothing really. The -2 bucks a day wont change your life in one bit. At all. I dont care how many years you add up that 2 bucks it still wont matter.

BTW I dont play lotto but I do agree with you.

Re: the lottery
 

Most of the people that play lotto don`t expect to win because they know the odds.

The reasons for playing lotto are more psychological (hope, desperation, feelings of "only way out of misery",excitement, plain fun etc. etc...)
then mathematical (odds, RoI etc..)

That`s why the most common reaction of winners is:
"I CANT BELIEVE I WON!"

Re: the lottery
 

For someone with an average income the utility value of having $2 is so close to nothing that it is safe to just say nothing. As long as you keep the lottery spending in the $2-20/week range then playing the lotter is correct since losing $104-$1040 a year has a negligible impact on your quality of life. Even though your odds or winning are so low the utility modified value is still greater then the negative impact of wagering.

The problem is that the lottery seems to appeal most to the poor. For them it is a bad decision since with their low incomes $104-1040 a year does have an impact on their life. Arguably though the hope (despite it being unfounded hope) might still make it a worth while endeavour. You'd need to commodity hope and give it a monetary value.

My issue with the lottery is a lack of desert basis. I wouldn't play the lottery even if I knew I'd win.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't play the lottery even if I knew I'd win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah right.

OP I'm not really clear on the point you are making. Every sane individual knows the chances of winning a jackpot is miniscule. People don't do the lottery as a +EV bet. But for an amount that you are not going to miss there is the possibility of winning a lifechanging amount. It could be you. If you are not in it you can't win it. Also don't expect to win it either.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't play the lottery even if I knew I'd win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead serious. When I was younger I figured if I won I'd just keep quite, put on 30lbs, dye my hair, and legally change my name. Claim the prize then reverse everything.

At this stage in my life though I'm at a place where the shame I'd feel from the lottery is greater then the value of the prize. If I lived in the States I might feel different since the prizes are much larger. But even for a larger prize I'd still return to my original hide my identity plan.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people that play lotto don`t expect to win because they know the odds.

The reasons for playing lotto are more psychological (hope, desperation, feelings of "only way out of misery",excitement, plain fun etc. etc...)
then mathematical (odds, RoI etc..)

That`s why the most common reaction of winners is:
"I CANT BELIEVE I WON!"

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right about that.

People play the lottery because they don't realize that it isn't +EV. People don't even know what is EV. People don't have a clue about gambling, they are stupid in that area (I don't mean to sound rude or unsociable, but this is a fact). They only see the big prize and have that mentality: maybe it will be me. Some girl said to me one time that she has to have some hope in life so she plays lotto. I don't play lottery because it is a waste of time and money and it is just stupid to play it.

But I am always surprised at how little faith people have in math, probability and odds and how much faith they have in something they call "luck". So the reason why they play lotto is simply: STUPIDITY.

Probably not what you asked, but since this is a psychological forum, the reason why people play lotto is probably not offtopic.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the reason why they play lotto is simply: STUPIDITY.

[/ QUOTE ]

As in, they can't even figure out how the game works sometimes?

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co....card_confusion

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So the reason why they play lotto is simply: STUPIDITY.

[/ QUOTE ]

As in, they can't even figure out how the game works sometimes?

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co....card_confusion

[/ QUOTE ]

This is hillarious. I was LOL. Fortunately, I don't know people who are that dum. Some people who don't get they are betting against the odds when they play lottery are actually very smart people so I didn't intend to insult anyone.

LOL ty for the link

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
People play the lottery because they don't realize that it isn't +EV. People don't even know what is EV. People don't have a clue about gambling, they are stupid in that area (I don't mean to sound rude or unsociable, but this is a fact).

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you sound very arrogant and immature.



[ QUOTE ]
So the reason why they play lotto is simply: STUPIDITY.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then I must be a moron because I'm a winning poker player with a Ph.D. who occasionally plays Powerball. Of course, I don't assume it's a +EV bet or a sound investment. However, I consider it something called, oh let's see, ENTERTAINMENT. Indeed, spending $2 for the chance to have a pleasant daydream about the very real (albeit very slim) chance of winning $80,000,000 is no more stupid than spending $3.25 on a Starbucks coffee, spending $25 on a restaurant meal that I could prepare at home for a quarter of the cost, or spending $45 on a concert ticket.

Re: the lottery
 

Of course I am immature because I don't bet against the odds. I didn't mean to insult anyone, sorry if you understood it that way. I just meant it is stupid to play lottery, not that you are stupid if you play lottery. Smart people do stupid things sometimes and it is nothing wrong with that.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I am immature because I don't bet against the odds. I didn't mean to insult anyone, sorry if you understood it that way. I just meant it is stupid to play lottery, not that you are stupid if you play lottery. Smart people do stupid things sometimes and it is nothing wrong with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

It actually isn't stupid to bet the lottery. You are treating money as having linear utility value which it clearly doesn't.

Also it is possible to have +EV lotteries. The Canadian lottery has been +EV the last few weeks due to the size of the jackpot.

Re: the lottery
 

I kind of agree with this post in some sense. I wonder why I grind it out at poker and some table games in Vegas instead of going to the slots and trying for a life-altering win. Winning $500 to $1000 does nothing for my life and there is little chance of me winning that amount at craps or blackjack or anything without exposing myself to huge losses.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also it is possible to have +EV lotteries. The Canadian lottery has been +EV the last few weeks due to the size of the jackpot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be the lotto I would play. (No tax on lotto in Canada either so that helps a lot) I think most people got the point I was trying to put across - though some people seemed to fail to realize that having a couple of bucks a week for a lifetime is different than having 11K right now.

LOL at the link btw but I was always a math whiz and I know it is hard/confusing for some people.

I think Vinetou is off base about the reason being stupidity but a lot of what he said is close to how I used to feel on the topic.

It does occur to my more paranoid side that the reason the lotto is so successful is in part to what I questioned/said and what many of you agreed to being false and is some sort of group self deception phenomenon, but as I`m sure many church/other religious institution goers have thought in the past and continue to think today - well, it`s not going to kill me and who knows I might be better off for it. All being said I`m off to get my ticket before the terminal closes. GL all.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So the reason why they play lotto is simply: STUPIDITY.

[/ QUOTE ]

As in, they can't even figure out how the game works sometimes?

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co....card_confusion

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow!

I used to think that Lotto was a tax on the financially illiterate, but I understand the amusement cost argument. After all, why do people play casino games?

Re: the lottery
 

I understand the logic behind the OP's statement and was thinking it over myself.

Say there is a one in 10 million chance to win enough money to have you set for life.

If you had to live 10 million lives, would you rather live all 10 million as basically middle class or 9,999,999 as middle class, but losing $2-5 on the lottery once in your lifetime, and 1 lifetime in which you win millions?

The lottery can be +ev, because you don't decide ev based on pure monetary results but on the affect it has on your life.

Another way of thinking about that is to think about the effect of giving a homeless man $1000 and giving Bill Gates $1000. It's the same raw amount of money, but one has a much bigger effect than the other.

Re: the lottery
 

there should be some sort of rakeback/cashback
for lotto playing peeps

I've never tracked how much I spend on lotto/scratch cards
over the years but I suspect it's a decent chunk of change [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: the lottery
 

Where i live the odds of winning is 1 in 14,000,000 and we have another which is 1 in 20,000,000. I know im throwing away money when i play. I find it a cheap form of entertainment. I know some people who dont tip servers,drink,smoke etc. I could do that and have a huge bank account but then life would be boring.

Re: the lottery
 

all the people i know who play lotto suck at poker, coincidence?

Re: the lottery
 

Probably majority of poker players play the lotto atleast once in their lifetime. So i guess you think the majority of poker players suck.

Re: the lottery
 

well LDO.
i dont only think the majority of poker players suck, its a well known fact that the majority of poker players suck. thats how we tiny % of winners make money
DUCY

Re: the lottery
 

$1 is worth the fantasy to a lot of people. Personally, I couldn't feel good about buying one.

Re: the lottery
 

I understand how most people think buying it is a waste of time. I feel the same with about smoking or drinking.

Re: the lottery
 

[ QUOTE ]
$1 is worth the fantasy to a lot of people. Personally, I couldn't feel good about buying one.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel the same way, though when that puppy gets to over $100 million, i toss one onto the cigarette purchase, just to dream...