(555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

$525+30 9-max on Full Tilt, standard payouts. BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well. No specific reads on him. UTG is a solid winning regular and Button is a kinda-sucky break-even casual player.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t250/t500

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2260
Button: t3180
SB: t6180
BB: t1880

Pre-flop: Hero is SB with xx
2 folds, Hero ???

ICM Nash Calculator Results

Is there any hand anyone is folding for any reason?

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

I would fold the very bottom end hands because it evens out the stacks for you to push next hands, if you push against BB he's calling wide cause he's losing all FE and is solidly in last, folding gives you a very nice setup. I probably fold like bottom 10% or so

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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I would fold the very bottom end hands because it evens out the stacks for you to push next hands, if you push against BB he's calling wide cause he's losing all FE and is solidly in last, folding gives you a very nice setup. I probably fold like bottom 10% or so

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basically what kleath said. i probably fold bottom 15-20% here.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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I would fold the very bottom end hands because it evens out the stacks for you to push next hands, if you push against BB he's calling wide cause he's losing all FE and is solidly in last, folding gives you a very nice setup. I probably fold like bottom 10% or so

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basically what kleath said. i probably fold bottom 15-20% here.

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I agree with John, and I might actually be even a little tighter against certain opponents...70% sounds about right against good regs.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

if i will be on bb i call you with top 70% here, thats mean that you must push 60% here.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

I'd probably push ATCs. The stacks are really even and I could see even a fairly good player folding too much here.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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I'd probably push ATCs. The stacks are really even and I could see even a fairly good player folding too much here.

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i agree, people play inapprorpiately tight here a lot. I don't think I'd shove ATC but I'd probably only fold like bottom 10%-15%

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

One thing to keep in mind for you guys that are used to Stars is that there are no antes in Slim's hand...kinda makes a big difference IMO.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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One thing to keep in mind for you guys that are used to Stars is that there are no antes in Slim's hand...kinda makes a big difference IMO.

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Very good point. Maybe I'll fold a few.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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One thing to keep in mind for you guys that are used to Stars is that there are no antes in Slim's hand...kinda makes a big difference IMO.

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Very good point. Maybe I'll fold a few.

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You better if it's me in the bb [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

Well this situation's a bit different. I mean, your EQ Fold is higher than the Nash results would have you believe, because the next hand is set up perfectly for you having UTG in the BB. If button and UTG were the other way around it'd be another story, because button sucks a bit and would call you looser than he should by NE, more than likely. So yeah, I'd fold bottom 15% here ish I would say, maybe even as much as bottom 20%.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

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It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can gain larger +ev situations on subsequent hands, based on stack sizes I think we should definitely fold some amount of hands, how much of our range is optimal to fold is the most compelling question.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

i don't quite understand maybe some of what people are saying here:

if we push now and he calls, either we win or we lose.

if we win, we won like 2100 chips, and are in the money with by far the big stack.

if we lose, we lose 1850ish chips, and are still the chip leader.
-assuming utg folds the next hand (possibly not a great assumption, but i'm going with it for right now), we can push pretty wide on the button, getting back 750 chips, and push pretty wide the hand after, getting another 750. if we don't have our blinds folded to, we're still up 750 on the orbit very likely, and then are on the button again where we can keep piling on the big stack pressure pushing any time we're first in. in all, i don't think that the bb guy is going to call and win enough, nor the loss for getting called and losing big enough, to make me scared of pushing everything here.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
i don't quite understand maybe some of what people are saying here:

if we push now and he calls, either we win or we lose.

if we win, we won like 2100 chips, and are in the money with by far the big stack.

if we lose, we lose 1850ish chips, and are still the chip leader.
-assuming utg folds the next hand (possibly not a great assumption, but i'm going with it for right now), we can push pretty wide on the button, getting back 750 chips, and push pretty wide the hand after, getting another 750. if we don't have our blinds folded to, we're still up 750 on the orbit very likely, and then are on the button again where we can keep piling on the big stack pressure pushing any time we're first in. in all, i don't think that the bb guy is going to call and win enough, nor the loss for getting called and losing big enough, to make me scared of pushing everything here.

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UTG calling range will be significantly wider if he's clearly in last.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

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It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

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When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

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It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

[/ QUOTE ]

When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, its been established that pushing is +ev, its not going to make a difference if its bigjoe or the described villain, a better player cant just fabricate a calling range that suddenly becomes good, we're talking about folding a pretty thin edge here if we're folding only our worst hands, It has to be good to fold some hands here.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like ATC to me....

[/ QUOTE ]

It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

[/ QUOTE ]

When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, its been established that pushing is +ev, its not going to make a difference if its bigjoe or the described villain, a better player cant just fabricate a calling range that suddenly becomes good, we're talking about folding a pretty thin edge here if we're folding only our worst hands, It has to be good to fold some hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]


i see what you and everyone else are pointing to, and I tend to agree that folding out the bottom is good, but the fact remains that the incremental edge gained is going to be so incredibly close here that I don't know how we can conclude on the exact part of the bottom of our range to fold short of coming up with a magical exact calling range for villain and call frequencies for UTG et al as citanul pointed to.

i guess im trying to say that i dont think anyone can fully refute someone saying to fold bottom 5% vs. bottom 15%, but I think we can conclude on slim's original question, which conclusively is that its unlikely that passing up on *some* hands here in a seemingly ATC spot is going to be worse than shoving ATC (again, assuming youre not folding too much). hope this makes sense, i just bought a volcano.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

[/ QUOTE ]

It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

[/ QUOTE ]

When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, its been established that pushing is +ev, its not going to make a difference if its bigjoe or the described villain, a better player cant just fabricate a calling range that suddenly becomes good, we're talking about folding a pretty thin edge here if we're folding only our worst hands, It has to be good to fold some hands here.

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i see what you and everyone else are pointing to, and I tend to agree that folding out the bottom is good, but the fact remains that the incremental edge gained is going to be so incredibly close here that I don't know how we can conclude on the exact part of the bottom of our range to fold short of coming up with a magical exact calling range for villain and call frequencies for UTG et al as citanul pointed to.

i guess im trying to say that i dont think anyone can fully refute someone saying to fold bottom 5% vs. bottom 15%, but I think we can conclude on slim's original question, which conclusively is that its unlikely that passing up on *some* hands here in a seemingly ATC spot is going to be worse than shoving ATC (again, assuming youre not folding too much). hope this makes sense, i just bought a volcano.

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Well I think it comes down to more of a judgement call than anything else.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

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Sounds like ATC to me....

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It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

[/ QUOTE ]

When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, its been established that pushing is +ev, its not going to make a difference if its bigjoe or the described villain, a better player cant just fabricate a calling range that suddenly becomes good, we're talking about folding a pretty thin edge here if we're folding only our worst hands, It has to be good to fold some hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]


i see what you and everyone else are pointing to, and I tend to agree that folding out the bottom is good, but the fact remains that the incremental edge gained is going to be so incredibly close here that I don't know how we can conclude on the exact part of the bottom of our range to fold short of coming up with a magical exact calling range for villain and call frequencies for UTG et al as citanul pointed to.

i guess im trying to say that i dont think anyone can fully refute someone saying to fold bottom 5% vs. bottom 15%, but I think we can conclude on slim's original question, which conclusively is that its unlikely that passing up on *some* hands here in a seemingly ATC spot is going to be worse than shoving ATC (again, assuming youre not folding too much). hope this makes sense, i just bought a volcano.

[/ QUOTE ]

Enjoy it man, they're a lot of fun. Best way to smoke...and it's not even close.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

This push looks a lot better than this one, where most people didn't want to fold anything in from the small blind with a big stack on the bubble.

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6...zersup1az1.jpg
$EV difference for pushing over folding 32o in this hand. It's harder to decide on a calling range but unless BB is good and knows you are too, it won't be very wide.

http://img472.imageshack.us/img472/6848/suzzer2tx5.jpg
Here's the plot from the other hand, which is a 6-max where the 30 BB stack pushes into a 10 BB stack with a 2.5 BB stack already having folded the button.


I contend that if there's ever a place to skip a push, it's one where you as the big stack have the most control over the table. With two opponents and your big stack to shelter shorty, I think the 6-max situation from the other thread gives you more control over the bubble than the 9-max situation with three opponents and no short stacks.

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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BB isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like ATC to me....

[/ QUOTE ]

It's +ev to shove ATC here, the question is about if we should pass up our thinnest edges with the bottom of our range so that we can

[/ QUOTE ]

When slim said "isn't a pro but seems to play pretty well." That's the best case you could ask for, predictable behavior and won't think outside the box, most likely is calling range is going to be uber tight in these spots, so no I'm not passing up on "x" now to receive "y" later..

Against a "pro" or an idiot I might think differently of it, but even with that based on Citanul post, thinking twice about it would be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, its been established that pushing is +ev, its not going to make a difference if its bigjoe or the described villain, a better player cant just fabricate a calling range that suddenly becomes good, we're talking about folding a pretty thin edge here if we're folding only our worst hands, It has to be good to fold some hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]


i see what you and everyone else are pointing to, and I tend to agree that folding out the bottom is good, but the fact remains that the incremental edge gained is going to be so incredibly close here that I don't know how we can conclude on the exact part of the bottom of our range to fold short of coming up with a magical exact calling range for villain and call frequencies for UTG et al as citanul pointed to.

i guess im trying to say that i dont think anyone can fully refute someone saying to fold bottom 5% vs. bottom 15%, but I think we can conclude on slim's original question, which conclusively is that its unlikely that passing up on *some* hands here in a seemingly ATC spot is going to be worse than shoving ATC (again, assuming youre not folding too much). hope this makes sense, i just bought a volcano.

[/ QUOTE ]

Enjoy it man, they're a lot of fun. Best way to smoke...and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]


agreed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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I contend that if there's ever a place to skip a push, it's one where you as the big stack have the most control over the table. With two opponents and your big stack to shelter shorty, I think the 6-max situation from the other thread gives you more control over the bubble than the 9-max situation with three opponents and no short stacks.

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those graphs are misleading because bb's call range is guaranteed to be much smaller in the linked hand than this hand

Re: (555) Time to fold a +$EV spot again (?)
 

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[ QUOTE ]

I contend that if there's ever a place to skip a push, it's one where you as the big stack have the most control over the table. With two opponents and your big stack to shelter shorty, I think the 6-max situation from the other thread gives you more control over the bubble than the 9-max situation with three opponents and no short stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

those graphs are misleading because bb's call range is guaranteed to be much smaller in the linked hand than this hand

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His calling range will be much smaller, but the 5% call $EV value from the 6-max hand is about the same as the 30% call value in this hand.