Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Oil futures are up at Bodog. Closing price $102.75 on Dec 31 plus gas props. Need an expert analysis.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Well, I don't know how to read futures markets well so take this with a huge grain of salt, but here are the current oil futures prices:

Dec 2007 - $95.90
Jan 2008 - $94.92

Source: http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Again, I could be misinterpreting this, but the under $102.75 for -120 seems like a decent play.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

I have to wonder if there's an arb to be had with betting on bodog + investing in the market.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Max bet for Bodog is $50, so even if there is, it wouldn't be worth it.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Thanks for the reply Thing that's exactly what I was looking for. I was hoping that you were the one to reply.

A future of $95 and a Bodog price of $102.75 is quite a difference. There would have to be a 9.2% jump to hit the over. Or us bombing Iran.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping that you were the one to reply.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure about this considering my relative lack of knowledge about financial derivatives. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Given the large minimums to participating in the market, the arb comment is mostly just a funny thought to me.

From a serious perspective, I would recommend comparing oil future prices from 2 months out to prices at the time the delivery date hit - for example, look at October oil future prices from august, and see how they moved. I believe futures are expected to be somewhat lower than the eventual trading cost of the time, but I don't have any idea how much lower. If the number turns out to be around 5%, then the difference isn't that big and maybe the juice on the bet makes it not worth it.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Interestingly, one of the other props is when the price of oil will surpass $100. The odds offered seem to suggest that it will happen before the end of 2007, given that Bodog is offering +900 that it will happen after December 28.

Obviously, the fact that the price is likely to surpass $100 before the end of 2007 (at least based on the odds) says nothing about where the price will be on December 31, but there seems to be at least some disconnect in my mind.

Maybe an expert can weigh in and set us straight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog is offering +900 that it will happen after December 28.

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There's got to be some value in this...doesn't there?

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

i like the under and after dec 28.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Holy carp. I got -120u. It's -300u now.

I really love prop betting. It may take some time to get your money, but there is just something about it that I love. Maybe it's the weirdness of the bets. I cant believe that I have bet and won on some of the stupidest things. Hot Dog and Hamburger eating contests(which I cant even watch). Tom Cruise possibly attending a soccer game, movie openings, academy awards, David Hasselhoff's drinking problem, etc.
I will always love props and it's important that we all keep up with it here at 2+2. Profit and have and fun time doing it.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Crude Oil Rises as Speculators Bet N.Y. Prices Will Top $100

By Mark Shenk

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose as speculators purchased contracts in anticipation that prices will top $100 a barrel in New York.

Oil prices may exceed that level next week as December futures and options contracts expire, said Edward Morse, the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief energy economist whose 2007 oil forecast was the highest among those surveyed, in a report today. Prices fell earlier today as producers in the North Sea restored output at platforms that were closed by a storm.

``There was bargain hunting once prices dipped below $95,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``The recent pattern has been that any move lower has been met with renewed buying because all eyes are looking at $100 oil.''

Crude oil for December delivery rose 46 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $95.92 a barrel at 11:47 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed to $98.62 on Nov. 7, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 57 percent from a year ago.

``Once again there was no follow-through when the market tried to correct,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York. ``We're all eyeing the crude option expiration on Tuesday and eyeing $100.''

An oil options contract gives a buyer the right to buy or sell a specific quantity of crude-oil by a specific date and at specified price. Oil may test $100 on Nov. 13 when options expire, according to the Lehman report.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

I don't give much weight to these kind of articles. Also note that the prop bet originally posted here has a line of $102.75...so it can still surpass $100 a bit and the under will be okay.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Any value in the price surpassing 100$ before Nov 15 at +600?

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any value in the price surpassing 100$ before Nov 15 at +600?

[/ QUOTE ]
Depends on the exact wording of the prop. Does it have to close above $100 or just trade there intraday? If the former, I think there's value.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

It does not have to close with that price. It's the day the price surpasses $100. Current price $95.84.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Am I the only one to think 'Exactly which oil futures delivery contract are they talking about?'

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Good news for those betting against rising oil prices:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oi...CFED032F0CDA%7D

FWIW, I think Bodog's "When will the price of Oil Surpass $100 a barrel?" bet for 12/28 or later at +150 still has some value.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't OPEC notorious for not following through with their promises? I think inventory reports are more reliable.

Here's another recent article saying that they won't raise outputs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...p;refer=energy

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one to think 'Exactly which oil futures delivery contract are they talking about?'

[/ QUOTE ]

WTI, LDO.

Re: Oil Futures at Bodog.
 

tks