2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

2/4 PLO HU

I have $580, Villain covers. Villain is unknown, times out a lot b/c she sucks at playing 3 tables, is passive post-flop with naked overpairs, and only 3-bets AAxx preflop. She's lead for pot when obvious draws hit, though I feel sort of odd about this one since a FD obviously missed, and she hasn't shown a bluff either. Is this an easy muck for most of you or look it up one time?

Hero raises to $12 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Villain calls.

Flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $20, Villain calls.

Turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $64, Villain calls.

River 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets $192

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

I`m calling because of the 2 blockers.
One time!

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

Snapcall

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

Swongs are one time

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

i would possibly bet $40 or so on the turn - the pot bet is very strong, and if she has picked up a combo draw with low cards on the turn, she might read your bet as weak and decide to repot. Of course most of the time they wont, but you have to give villan an oppertunity to hang themselves

i can only find a fold on the river against the biggest nits who would never bluff here and have told me in passing that they have their entire roll on the table and if they lose it they cant afford this months rent

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

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Snapcall


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Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff. i guess i agree that it's a call against most opponents who are capable of bluffing, especially if they're not that good.

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

I call this but I really would expect to see 35AKcc or something like that or a pure bluff. Its just hard to put opponent on some 35xx hand since you have a Q, two Js, two Clubs and a 3 in hand reducing all the possibilities of combinations she could have to play here. But ya, this is a missed river club bluff or like A35X (with clubs or Q/T/K as X, or both). I wish I could fold this but I just can't, all the player information points to a fold but its just too hard for me to do it here.

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff

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I think it's the other way around. Moron instapot = bluff... average "thinking" player instapot = nuts

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's the other way around. Moron instapot = bluff... average "thinking" player instapot = nuts

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i was never very good with tells.

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

Villain is a lady?

Need pics before I can comment

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

There is no way I ever lay this down HU unless I have a dead-lock read. There are too many players that pot Q4 and 44 in that spot for this fold to be correct.

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

Results: I called and she showed T735 for the nuts (had Ten-high clubs). Turns out she only bets made hands or the nuts, had to learn the hard way [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

what is this villain sn?

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what's the rule? for total crap opponents, a large river insta-bet is always the nuts, but for mediocre opponents it's always a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's the other way around. Moron instapot = bluff... average "thinking" player instapot = nuts

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I disagree, I don't think that a thinking player instapots this with anything. If I'm bluffing, it wouldn't be insta and it wouldn't be for pot, If I was leading a 35 (which I wouldnt even do in villians shoes...C/R FTW) I still wouldn't bet pot and it definately wouldnt be a quick bet.

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

It's the absolute noobs who have no idea what they're doing who are always bluffing when they instapot. The intermediate types who are kinda bad always have the nuts when they instapot. An actual thinking player rarely instapots either way, but could have either a bluff or a real hand when they do.

From the read given, villain's likely to fit in category 2, as the mere fact that she's playing 3 tables makes her unlikely to fit in category 1, and the fact that she hasn't shown a bluff makes it unlikely she'd try to steal on such an obscure draw, so it probably should be a fold, but it's really close. The fact that this draw's so hard to hit in the first place means that you need a pretty solid read to fold. If you're not confident in your read you should call just because of the pot odds offered. (Yes, I know these are the worst pot odds you can get in PLO, but you still have to call sometimes when you think you're probably beat getting 2:1.)

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

i dont think anyone in the world can really fold this here unless as was said early... MEGA rock, playing with KGB's money which had to be repayed last week...this is an underset at least 66% of the time.. not to mention the chance of a bluff...even though you have a sick feeling that your beat which is unavoidable... i still dont see myself ever laying this down... just donk off, say well played and proceed to getting your money back with interest against this guy/girl

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

for those who say snap call what is the worst you call with here? are queens and jacks good enough?

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

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I`m calling because of the 2 blockers.
One time!

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Q is never a blocker since QQxx would never play like this. I read the results but Im still calling this. I mean we only lose to one hand which is a flush draw that picked up the nuts, I call and make a note whatever hand she shows up with

Re: 2/4 PLO HU - Second set vs. insta-pot on river
 

snapcall, i think she shows up with 66 alot here also.