River decision with two pair
 

Hi everyone. Long time, first time. Be gentle.

Borgata 10-20. Dream game. MP1 is a woman in her 30s. She's apparently a dealer in town somewhere. In the hour she's been at the table she's seen about 80% of the flops and a ton of rivers. She hasn't raised on any street in that time and is down about a rack. MP2 is a youngish guy. Loose passive, but will bet any pair or draw if it's folded to him on the flop and then call down if raised. All other players in the hand are loose passive.

I'm dealt T8o OTB. 4 limpers, I limp, blinds come along. 7 way flop. I normally fold T8o here, but I couldn't bear to sit out OTB against this field.

Flop 984 2 clubs
Checks to MP2, who bets. I raise. BB, MP1, MP2 all call. My thought at the table was to try and get heads up with MP2. Given the flop and looseness of the table, that might have been a stupid idea. At the time the raise seemed clear, but now calling and folding both seem like options.

Turn: T red (7.5 BB)
Checked to me, I bet. All 3 call. Nobody came alive so I'm probably good, unless there's a scared T9 out there.

River: K no flush (11.5 BB)
Checked to me, I bet. BB calls, now MP1 (the woman) CRs, MP2 folds. The pot is 15.5 bets. She's certainly capable of playing K9, K8, or K4 suited. Can I fold this?

Re: River decision with two pair
 

no, never, just call

Re: River decision with two pair
 

I can't see how T8 is good here even 7% of the time. It's probably not good 3% of the time. I think it's a pretty clear fold.

If:
a) BB had folded and it was HU, I might cry and call
b) if I had shown a propensity to make tight laydowns and felt she was tricky/thinking enough to put in a c/r in hopes that I'd do it again, I might cry and call

But look at the hand from her perspective. You raised the flop, bet the turn into a field, and bet the river on a KT98 board. There was a call, now she checkraises to get paid off by two players in a big pot. She couldn't be screaming QJ any louder if she tried. Live female players in my experience love to slowplay the nuts on the turn and lay the hammer down when they've trapped their pray.

Not that she can't have KT or a set here too. But she does NOT expect you to fold, and she doesn't expect BB to fold either. She isn't value betting 1 pair. So if she isn't value betting a worse hand, and she isn't bluffing, what does that mean? It means she's got the goods. Like, all the time. Save the big bet.

There are lots of spots like this where we make good value bets on the river, but find out we're beat. We should be bet/folding in these spots when we don't have a hand that can withstand a c/r. This is a situation that fits. Bet/fold. If you absolutely can't fold to a river raise, then check behind. But I prefer b/f to check here because a lot of one pair hands will have to pay off.

In this spot in this situation, tens up is in the same vicinity as one pair vs. a river c/r. If you're bet/folding AK, you should be bet/folding T8.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

you framed the question to get the answer that you wanted.

middle aged loose passive ladies dont put this raise in with anything you beat ever.

if the other guy between you folded, you'd call. but even against a more aggressive (but not maniacal) player, your hand is basically never good.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

1.) I fold pre-flop but I don't totally hate the call.
2.) I just fold the flop. The field is huge and you have a [censored] pair.
3.) As played, the turn is fine and I fold the river. No way you are winning.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

With 7 loose passives to the flop, any 8-9, 9-10, 10-j type flop has got to create a nice draw for someone. These flops w/two suited, means you are always gonna get chased to the river, & often get beat. If "she hasn't raised yet" and finally does, you've got to figure you're beat. You're only ahead of the K hands you mention, 98s, or an even worse limped 9-4, 8-4. Fold the flop!

If you were positioned so that your raise could have made opposition face two bets cold, your idea to get heads up would have much better chance of success. With the crowd you describe, they're not going anywhere for one bet. Save your raises for when they will knock players out or you expect value if unimproved.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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2.) I just fold the flop. The field is huge and you have a [censored] pair.


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I think this is the best play. Although the guy to my immediate right bet allowing me to face the field with 2 cold, no one is folding and the likely scenario is 4 players on the turn and me with second pair bad kicker.

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3.) As played, the turn is fine and I fold the river. No way you are winning.


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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

If the board was less draw heavy, I wouldn't mind check raising the last player but not in this case.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

very large pot, bad opponent, weird action, has to be a call. i try not to make hero folds against weirdbad players in large pots. against nitty regulars, sure, maybe.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

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I still think it's a good fold. Play this hand 30 more times and 28 times she'll show a better hand.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

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I still think it's a good fold. Play this hand 30 more times and 28 times she'll show a better hand.

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judging from the way she played this hand i really doubt that.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

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I still think it's a good fold. Play this hand 30 more times and 28 times she'll show a better hand.

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I would normally fold this without thinking too much. Player behind still to act, she hasn't raised yet, how could she not have me beat, etc.

But I am trying to get myself to stop and think about this. My threshhold for this inner alarm on the river is about 10 big bets. My reaction to losing a pot like this, that I should have won, haunts me for the rest of the session. And with this much money in the pot, I am not good enough to know with certainty that I am behind (some people who post here may be).

So I am now starting to lose a lot of river bets in pots like this. Except when I am tired. Then I fold and cry.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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judging from the way she played this hand i really doubt that.

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Maybe, but the read we got was that she never raises on any street. I took that to mean "passive, only raises with the nuts." Once you see the results of this hand that establish her as a spaz, then of course you wouldn't expect her to always have you beat.

But I think if you replace her with a passive player (as the read tricked us into believing she was), then you're only good here like 3% of the time.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

In a truly passive situation that hand is good more like 25% or 50% of the time rather than 3% or 7% IMO. I would not fold that specific situation for one river bet without a clearer read. But I think you think you should have not folded because you "would have won" which is not the way to think about it.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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If you absolutely can't fold to a river raise, then check behind.

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Wait what? I can see saying that if he is less of a favorite when called, but puhhhhleeeez. He has two friggin pair. Ok it's not a monster on this board, but it's not like he is VBing KJ and afraid that someone is gonna show him KQ.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

your hand is pretty gross. I just fold it preflop

Re: River decision with two pair
 

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In a truly passive situation that hand is good more like 25% or 50% of the time rather than 3% or 7% IMO.


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That seems really high to me. Even if my read was better and I knew she could do something screwy, I wouldn't think I was good 25% of the time after she check raises.

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I would not fold that specific situation for one river bet without a clearer read. But I think you think you should have not folded because you "would have won" which is not the way to think about it.


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I'm trying to be as objective as I can and look at it based on what I knew at the table. I might not be succeeding, but I'm trying. Obviously I probably don't post it if I don't see her hand. My concern wasn't really if I was beat or not, I think most of us agree that I'm in bad shape after she raises. My thoughts were about whether or not the pot was big enough to be able to make a crying call. If my read was solid, I still think it's a fold. Obviously my read was bad given what she had.

I think my lesson, other than fold preflop and fold the flop, is that making a fold like this in a big pot is questionable when your read is only based on an hour of play.

Re: River decision with two pair
 

I like your name.

I like a call on the flop.