(razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

No particular reads on this player except he had just gotten all in with a (hidden) pair and runner-runnered his way into a win. He's only been at the table for about 15 hands at this point, and he's been playing pretty loose.

At the time of writing this, 15 minutes later, he's now the chip leader. Awesome.

Is folding 5th mandatory here?

Tournament - Razz - Level XV (2,000/4,000), Ante 400, Bring-In 600 (converter)

Seat 1: 53,069
Hero: 33,775
Seat 3: 17,880
Seat 4: 58,388
Seat 6: 49,173
Seat 7: 14,621
Seat 8: 38,757

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (5.70 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.85 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___???
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

In a tournament I fold here. (edited) This is a real bad board for you, I say get out.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from the latest FT "tip" by Ivey:
[ QUOTE ]
Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you’re making a smart move, but it doesn’t take into account who you’re playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you’re facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that’s something you can only develop by playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, a tournament is a closed system. While making mathematically "correct" calls that will pay off in some future when you have played enough hands might make sense generally, if they pay off when you are playing a cash game long after you've lost the tournament, then using that system to make tournament decisions is not as reasonable as it seems to be.

I ask myself these questions: 1 - no matter how short the guy is - do I want to make him any richer? 2 - how good was this hand on 3rd? 3 - how do I feel about it now? 4 - do I have any good reason to call or am I just talking myself into something? 4 - am I protecting my stack?

I look at my HHs and justify bad calls all the time. For about ten seconds until I remember how much denial costs me in real money. I need real money. I might call this in a cash game, possibly. Not in a trny.

My question is - when you saw the 4, just instinctively, what did you feel you should do?

Remember the Prime Sklansky Directive: folding makes you money. Folding is profit.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

In a tornement I'm folding 5th only because I am clearly drawing to a 9 as my opponet bets there he is saying I'm drawing to at least a 7 or lower. Regardless of odds and chips You are usuallly behind here, and he has at least two more bets which is a good amount with these blinds. I don't mess around here and find a better spot to get my chips in.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

Nope, he has one more bet, and a fraction of a bet. That's all - my final call on the end was 300 chips, as I recall, like .15bb.

1. to me his bet says "I'm getting all in, no matter what" - I have seen people turn over all kinds of garbage.
2. if he's perfect in the hole, I'm getting the right pot odds to call (yes, in a cash game... in a tournament, well, I guess that's why I'm asking)
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

This is a must call. I agree witht he Ivey quote above but that doesnt really apply when the guy sticks in his last amount of money. Its done, its just math at that point.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right. I did some back of the envelope calculations from his starting stack above and the bets that went in, arrived at .2bbish. But I'm pretty sure I remember calling 296 chips or something like that on the end.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

ok, I actually just looked at the HH and I called 221 chips on the end... .05bb

So to call down I'm getting 5.8:2 which is awesome.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

I think I'd call for odds and he could have anything.

I think you could have just called on 3rd. Once you raised, it was correct to both a call on 4th and after that he may be gambling come any decent card.

I'm surprised considering his stack he didn't re-raise on 3rd if he had a made hand.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

Yeah I re-raised out of habit there because I assumed that he was probably on a steal. I didn't start considering stack sizes until he called 4th.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

[/ QUOTE ]His article wasn't about NLHE. Why does it apply here? Because all the talk here is about having the odds to call. The question you did not answer was: how did you feel when you saw the 4?

We do this and don't take into account the outcome. But in trny play the outcome matters a lot more then in a cash game. IMO - one last time - you should probably have folded 3rd, you should fold 5th. How did you feel when you saw the 4 and how did it turn out?

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

How did I see when I saw the 4? like seeing a river. After he bet 5th he had 1bb left. I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

So, 2/3 times I lose an extra 2bb. 1/3 times I gain the whole pot, about 6.8bb. I won't be in good shape if I lose, but I'm treading water and I need the chips. Yes, yes the chips I win are worth less than the ones I lose. But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

But this is actually the *worst case*. And far more commonly I'm looking at a coinflip, and once there's this much in the pot I flip every single time. If it's a coinflip, he's basically saying, here's your money back, now lets flip for 2bb plus a little extra dead money, and if I lose, I'm out of the tournament.

Also obviously I reserve the right to fold 6th, and he has no such luxury, really. So calling here I'm really only gambling 1bb some of the time, some of the time on 6th I'm gambling 1 more.

The outcome of this hand is immaterial to the question at hand. But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

In case it wasn't clear, the odds dictate I should call even if he has the WORST hand for me that he could have.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Hero: A 3 4___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5___folds

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

Yeah, you fold. I'd have folded.


[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

[/ QUOTE ] Uh-huh. But in a tournament, you don't have time to find that theoretical winning time that is going to make up, in some very small way, for your two losses. And that winning one, whenever it is, will NOT make up for the equity you have in this tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

[/ QUOTE ] Then you let the big stacks do that unless you have a very strong hand and you don't, regardless of it being three wheels.

[ QUOTE ]
But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]If it's all about odds, and you know how to calculate odds, and the outcome didn't matter, and you really believe this - why did you bother posting it in the first place?

Nevermind. This is your game. Go thou forth and conquer. I would be completely delighted to see you at the final table tonight with 7 other 2+2ers.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.


[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that I don't have any of my pairs showing, and I do have some outs I need showing, devalues this hand considerably. However that just makes it a great hand instead of an absolutely awesome insta-shove hand. This guy is not in a great position to steal but I am betting he'd bet any 3 card 9 here. I probably would. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the previous hand he went nuts with a good looking board and a hidden pair - it's not beyond him to do so, obviously.


[ QUOTE ]
If it's all about odds, and you know how to calculate odds, and the outcome didn't matter, and you really believe this - why did you bother posting it in the first place?


[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who was railing asked me if I should have folded and I basically said "out of my dead cold hands you'll pry these cards". I posted here to see what other people thought about that. I probably should not moderate the thread so heavily, since my mind is pretty made up.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you ever fold three wheel cards, heads-up, vs. a possible steal raise? With the exception of the dead cards, this is the best possible situation for you to be in, and you need to put the chips in.

The quote from the FTP book about folding A23 (which may or may not be great advice) was for a jammed pot, high variance, etc. Folding 3rd is just really, really bad.

How do we feel that we caught the 4? Disappointed, but still optimistic about our chances in the hand vs. a person who is known to play less than great hands.

-ChipsAhoya

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Hero: A 3 4___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5___folds

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

Yeah, you fold. I'd have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you think this this starting hand should be folded does not mean that you have a "different" style than me (and all the other players who commented in this thread), but one that is equally good and valid and nothing is wrong or right because even Phil Ivey said poker is about feel. It has nothing to do with style. It means that in this particular case, you have a systematic leak in your game.

Of course, just because you think and/or write fold, doesn't mean you actually would fold if you were playing the hand -- none of us are perfect -- so it might not be as bad as it seems...

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you think this this starting hand should be folded does not mean that you have a "different" style than me (and all the other players who commented in this thread), but one that is equally good and valid and nothing is wrong or right because even Phil Ivey said poker is about feel. It has nothing to do with style. It means that in this particular case, you have a systematic leak in your game.

[/ QUOTE ]
And just because you say this, doesn't make it true.

And true, this wasn't my hand and if it had been, I might have played it. But I doubt it. I fold this kind of hand in this situation in tournaments all the time.

You know, this specific issue is a debate among much better and more successful tournament players than we are, and there is no consensus.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

Find me someone else, in the much better than us camp, who folds this hand. (Primarily I mean on 3rd. Although also I'd like to see who really like a fold on 5th, also...)

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Find me someone else, in the much better than us camp, who folds this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Find me someone else, in the much better than us camp, who folds this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[/ QUOTE ]

Brevity is [...] wit

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Find me someone else, in the much better than us camp, who folds this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[/ QUOTE ]
+1

But I will elaborate. The situation in this particular hand is night and day different from the situation described by Huck Seed in the FTP guide, which I think is what you're referring to for the decision on 3rd st. Huck's argument was based on the fact that even an A23 can be a slight underdog if the board is full of dead cards, and if you have two opponents who are so strong that they are raising back and forth, it's almost certain that 3rd st will get capped if you play. That's a big difference (putting in 4 SB in a multiway pot) compared to this hand (putting in 1 SB in a HU pot vs. a short stack who may be desperate). Even if you were on the tournament or final table bubbles here, you're giving up a lot of cEV and tournament equity by folding to a significantly shorter stack.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Find me someone else, in the much better than us camp, who folds this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would I do that? To "prove" I am "right?" Rusty, I have no interest whatsoever in converting you to my practices. I express my views, how I came by them. You can express yours. I do not need to be right. I only need to be happy with my own choices.

SG, your interpretation of what you read is your interpretation, not anything that was actually said, that I recall. But I don't own the book, or have a copy in my possession, so I can't check the quotes.

What I have in my notes from having read the book that does seem to relate here: "Factors influencing playability of starting hands: whether others limped/raised or reraised - size of antes - upcards - opponents still to act - chip stack relative to limits."

Note that having a "starting hand" is presumed before one begins to take these other factors into account. So just having one isn't a recommendation to play. I believe these were the factors I was referring to in a previous post. I also have a note that says the upcards in Razz are more significant than in any other game. So that bad board takes on a lot of weight in light of this statement if we believe Forrest. Of course, he didn't give us any proof, it's just his opinion.

But the most salient point from the book that has a direct relation to this discussion is a comment by Seed about 5th street:

"Fold, even if marginally right to call - in a tournament, preserve your chips."

These are my notes and not exact quotes. Now, here is Forrest on the same 5th street issue:

"Stay in with the best 4 card draw."

The street in question:

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___???
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets


But then, Phil Ivey just reminded us not to do something just because it's in a book. To make up our own minds. And so we should.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

Praxising: if you're going to claim that folding or not folding on 3rd is controversial, you're going to need to produce some controversy. That's all I'm saying in my post.

Honestly I think this is my last post on the subject, I don't think we find each other's arguments convincing and I guess that's that.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Praxising: if you're going to claim that folding or not folding on 3rd is controversial, you're going to need to produce some controversy. That's all I'm saying in my post.

Honestly I think this is my last post on the subject, I don't think we find each other's arguments convincing and I guess that's that.

[/ QUOTE ]It isn't controversial, it is simply debatable. I'm for leaving it alone, but I want to say, yet again, I do not want to change your mind. I think your mind is just dandy as it is. My version of message board issues is exploration - because the vast majority of persons on message boards never post. So, articulating as many aspects of an issue as possible, which works best in the arena of disagreement, serves the community.

And is, yanno, fun.

SG - you want to put a coda on this thing?

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

Ah. I'm trying to change your mind.

Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I think it's important to note who your opponent is too. Nothing WRONG with folding here if you don't want a (quasi)coin flip this late in the tourney though I suppose