400nl deep bluff
 

villain is a 20/18 who i don't really have history with. sometimes i just give up on the flop after they call oop but not this time...

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $446.50
UTG: $764.10
MP: $328
CO: $1,136.35
Hero (BTN): $713.10
SB: $213.75

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $4, <font color="red">CO raises to $18</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $62</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $44

Flop: ($134) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $103</font>, CO calls $103

Turn: ($340) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($340) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $170</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $548.10 and is All-In</font>

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

I almost think we can just call this river bet.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

I'd rather call (or bet turn for that matter)

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

u trying to bluff out QQ exactly?

Re: 400nl deep bluff *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by wheelz

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

Relevant questions:

1) Does he c/r this flop with 44?
2) Does he think you'd bet the turn with AK?

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

FWIW I think calling and shoving are both viable and seem pretty close EV-wise; I'd opt for the former though because it is inherently less variance.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

it would be nice if i had a better read on his range but like i said i haven't played with him much, only 100 or 200 hands.

i think a J is really likely though (as well as underpair of course).

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

you can't call here, i think a call is only profitable on this board in an unraised pot

i think it's good theoretically, i mean he's got to fold a lot of pocket pairs and some Jacks... but from the action on previous streets he doesn't have a Jack

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call??

also if villain is one of you guys do you call the shove with a J?

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

Looks like a blocker bet with QQ, TT. Your shove represents AK, which does conform with your line. I dont think there are too many hands other than JJ hes calling with here OOP. I like the shove.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call??

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry.... forgot about counterfeiting.....
which leans it a little toward calling

i still don't think calling w a J is good here... i mean AK is a reasonable hand for you (even w turn ch)

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

looks good

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.

36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so:

Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238

Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38

dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

People saying QQ: You think he expects OP to call w/ A high often enough to be value betting QQ on the river? Seems unlikely.

I agree with OP that villain has a J like over 75% of the time. That being said, I really don't know if it's a good bluff or not. I think I like it though.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

I agree that calling has a lot of merit here for obvious reasons but you can easily rep AK here with this line, and make him fold QQ, so shoving is much better IMO. nh.

Re: 400nl deep bluff
 

If I were villain i'd call w/ a J. That being said I don't think villain has a J that often - I mean is he expecting hands like QQ, AK, AA to: a) bet the turn (as opposed to checking behind); and b) call a CR? I would think a J would raise the flop and/or lead turn.