100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

Villian is 21.5/20.3/4 postflop agg. over 418 hands.

His steal percentage is 37.38%


I've 3bet this guy a bunch in the past though I don't think I have yet today. He has in the past called my 3bet with T9o (though that one time is the only time I've seen him do something crazyish) and called 2 barrels (maybe 3 I don't remember) with a pair of T's. So I think he can call my 3bets a little light.


So I thought the numbers here were pretty close. I wanted to see what other people would do. I'd think that ace has to be an out some of the time.


So what would you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($209.15)
Button ($102.10)
SB ($112.70)
Hero ($198.75)
UTG ($115.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $13</font>, Button calls $9.

Flop: ($26.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $52</font>, Hero ???

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

id be more curious to his steal percentage over anything. as played id probably fold here. i think our clean outs kill our action and an ace may as well. if an ace doesnt kill our action were in a real tough spot OOP and i cant see him stacking here when we make our straight.

disclaimer: this would probably be my standard line however from time to time 3 balling him here and calling a shove, or shoving may be ok too. id probably only do this about 15% of the time though.




if i think hes capable of calling lght, IE K10 or so given that youve 3b him alot before then id def 3b AI

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

His steal percentage is 37.38%

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

this spot sucks. if u like variance push. if u don't fold. it really depends if you think he can show up with a made straight.

i'm a gambooler..so push.

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

i'd fold

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

[/ QUOTE ]


He's raised my c-bet in 3 bet pots a few times in the past after the hand were he called down with the pair of tens. (I think I had A high that hand.) But nothing much had happened at this table and I never saw a showdown in the past...I think I folded the 2 - 4 times he did it.

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok so he has a pretty high steal percentage so 3b is not bad here but how light will he stack off on the flop. if you feel you have 14 outs then its a shove.

have you seen him make a move on you postflop yet?

[/ QUOTE ]


He's raised my c-bet in 3 bet pots a few times in the past after the hand were he called down with the pair of tens. (I think I had A high that hand.) But nothing much had happened at this table and I never saw a showdown in the past...I think I folded the 2 - 4 times he did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

given you guys have some history of 3b's and raising cbets and such i might just shove here if i think hes liable to leave me with 14 outs (sometimes) when the shove is called. obv he call with sets and straights and probably most overpairs, but if i feel hell call as light as one pair leaving me 14 outs at time then i shove.

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

I think you'll have 11 outs a good percentage of the time and 14 outs like hardly ever

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll have 11 outs a good percentage of the time and 14 outs like hardly ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it +ev to get it in here having 11 outs a large percentage of the time?

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll have 11 outs a good percentage of the time and 14 outs like hardly ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it +ev to get it in here having 11 outs a large percentage of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

stoved some

---
44,550 games 0.005 secs 8,910,000 games/sec

Board: 8h Tc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.860% 21.08% 04.78% 9392 2128.50 { AsJc }
Hand 1: 74.140% 69.36% 04.78% 30901 2128.50 { 88+, AcJc, AsJs, AdTd, AsTs, QJs, JTs, T9s, QJo, JTo}


---

halved the combos of AJs, ATs, QJo and JTo

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

You have a bunch of hands in there that he can't possibly have. Yea it's not much of a difference...only like 1%. (at the bottom)


But it strikes me that I don't actually have 11 outs against most of that range.....which was kinda the assumption when I said isn't it +ev if I have 11 outs a lot.




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.005 secs 9,306,000 games/sec

Board: 8h Tc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.779% 20.65% 06.13% 9610 2850.50 { AsJc }
Hand 1: 73.221% 67.09% 06.13% 31219 2850.50 { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, KK-QQ, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 9c9h, 9c9s, 9h9s, 8c8d, 8c8s, 8d8s, AhJh, AcTc, AdTd, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTd, JhTs, JsTh }

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

anyone c/shove this flop?

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have a bunch of hands in there that he can't possibly have. Yea it's not much of a difference...only like 1%. (at the bottom)


[/ QUOTE ]

which hands? w/e I'm guessing it doesnt really matter much either way.

our ranges are basically the same.

Re: 100NL; AJ 3bets TAG from blinds; flops OESD - raised on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone c/shove this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
i think ch/rai is waaay better than b/3b
lol at villain ever folding once he raises