25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

Getting 2.5-1 from the pot (total pot of 47.95/my call remaining of 19) on a 2.9-1 draw (12 good cards and 35 bad cards remaining). I know its close, but would most people call this? At this limit the answer I would expect is 90% yes, however as limits increase would more players lay this down b/c the pot doesnt meet the mathematical requirement of 2.9-1?


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $20.70
Hero (SB): $35.30
BB: $25
UTG: $25

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, BB calls $0.75, UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $24.75 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $18.95 and is All-In, Hero...

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

It's not close. Easy call. Where are you getting that you need 2.9:1 to call?

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

As played, call, but...

If you're looking for comments on the hand, why 3 bet on the flop? Button isn't going anywhere, you risk chasing out BB who is padding the pot to give you a good price to draw, AND you're giving button another chance to re-pop you and all you have is a draw. I really don't like the 3-bet.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As played, call, but...

If you're looking for comments on the hand, why 3 bet on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

These players are very PAG (dont have stats right now) and imo they were very weak. The pot was decent for a squeeze semi bluff. I really dont expect the BB to move in, and I obv dont think the button will come over the top. I may have made a slight mistake on the reraise, but imo i can take the pot down there.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? Everyone is all in on the flop, if we call here we get to see the turn and the river for free, so of course I count the odds of us hitting on the turn or river when I'm calculating my winning chances.

The principle you talk about of only counting the odds for hitting the next card on the turn applies when there is a good chance you will be facing another bet on 4th street. That just doesn't apply here.

1.2-to-1 is 45% to hit, not 83% and yes with 2 streets to come 45% is the chance I hit my 12-outer if I call the all-ins on this street. I have no idea where you get your 83% chance number.

4-to-1 means I hit my draw 1 time out of 5, not 1 time out of 4 as you state. In other words, for every 1 time I hit, I miss 4 times.

I'm suspecting the chances are actually pretty good you're a troll. If you are, well played, because you're about to get dozens of posts explaining exactly why it is YOU don't understand odds.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I may have made a slight mistake on the reraise, but imo i can take the pot down there.

[/ QUOTE ]
In all seriousness, you will take the pot down there slightly less than never.

Edited to add: even if BB folds, button is getting well over 2:1. Any hand he liked enough to raise with, he definitely likes enough to at least call your reraise with.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

You should have only called the 1st raise - not re-raised.

I agree that btn is coming along for the whole ride so why not add some more $$ in there by keeping the BB in there too.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

1.2 to 1 , to me, means : 1 / (1 + 1.2) = 1 / 2.2

Since you're getting it all in on the flop - you have two chances to hit your draw - which is roughly 12 outs x 4 = 48%.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

This entire post is a level right?

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

I ask because you seem to be completely missing the fact that there are 2 cards to come...

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

?

13 outs twice is roughly 13x4 (using the rule of 2 and 4) or 52% is like 1.1:1 , 50% is 1:1.

You're getting 50:20 -&gt; 5:2 - &gt; 2.5:1 so you need 1/(1+2.5) -&gt; .29 -&gt; 29%

Obviously if you find yourself in this situation you're calling. Only an idiot would fold this at any level, since even against a worst case set and another flush draw face up we have the required odds to call.

Board: Ad 4d 3c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.682% 28.68% 00.00% 259 0.00 { Kd5d }
Hand 1: 62.348% 62.35% 00.00% 563 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 08.970% 08.97% 00.00% 81 0.00 { 7d6d }

Can I get a WTF?

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK your original post was a pretty good troll attempt, I'd even go as far as to give it a 7/10. But after this follow up I'm going to have to drop your score down to 3/10. Better luck next time.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
?

13 outs twice is roughly 13x4 (using the rule of 2 and 4) or 52% is like 1.1:1 , 50% is 1:1.



[/ QUOTE ]
Don't double count the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Also, be aware the Rule of 4 slightly overestimates your chances when you have a large number of outs (not that it makes a difference here)

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

actually the worst-case scenario is against a set and a made straight (with one of the flush cards), but even then you're still only a 2.6-1 dog.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
?

13 outs twice is roughly 13x4 (using the rule of 2 and 4) or 52% is like 1.1:1 , 50% is 1:1.



[/ QUOTE ]
Don't double count the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Also, be aware the Rule of 4 slightly overestimates your chances when you have a large number of outs (not that it makes a difference here)

[/ QUOTE ]

right... so 12 outs.

Not that it vaguely matters here. Still a mandatory call.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol how have you survived on these forums since april if you get so butt hurt about being a dumbass in your own thread and getting called out on it. btw you were the one who first started acting like a pompous dick in this thread, which was really funny because you were so obviously wrong.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
actually the worst-case scenario is against a set and a made straight (with one of the flush cards), but even then you're still only a 2.6-1 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, wrong on both parts. I guess I should go post on some other site now. I'm not worthy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL and WP at your attempt to sound indignant.

You are the one that was condescending first and implied that someone didn't understand pot odds and acted incredulous at their 1.2 to 1 correctly stated odds.

If you want to dish out the "pomposity" learn how to take it like a man when you correctly get called out on it. And frankly most of his post was a very clear demonstration as to how to correctly calculate the odds (which obviously would be helpful to you in this situation).

Like I said, WP though with the "trying to sound like the reasonable and mature one" in this situation. Have fun at CR.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have taken a more moderate tone if your reply to me didn't contain these lines:

[ QUOTE ]
Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you think 50% of my post was unnecessary, though. Except for the 'Are you serious?' and the last paragraph, everything in there was directly addressing misconceptions you seem to have about probability, odds, and how to apply them.

Since you seem to have made an honest mistake, I'll apologize for the parts of my post that have offended you. However, in the future, if you have a question and/or difference with someone's reply, please take a more polite tone yourself.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

I hate posts like this, but I have no choice.

[X] Thread Delivers

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie.

[/ QUOTE ]

referring to DickieBets post

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

Alright, all joking aside, here's the deal:

After BB 3-bets all in on the flop and BTN calls there is $43 in the pot. You need to call $19 to win $43. This means that for this call to be profitable, you need to have a bit more than 30% equity in the pot. Roughly speaking, that means you need win the hand a little more than 30% of the time. (There is also the matter of split pots in equity calculations but we won't worry about that here.)

Think about it this way: If you win $43 30% of the time and lose $19 70% of the time, your expected winnings are:

.3*43 + .7*(-19) ~ 0.

Now we need to decide if we will win more than 30% of the time here. We have 9 outs to the nut flush, and 3 more outs to a straight (not counting the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] twice). When we have 12 outs we have about a 44% chance of making our hand by the river. You multiply the number of outs by 2 to get the chance to making your hand on the next card, and you multiply by 4 to get the chance of making your hand on the next two cards. (Here we subtract the number of outs over 8 that we have - which is 4 - from the final result ie 12*4-(12-8)=44, but we won't get into that either since multiplying by 4 to get 48% is an OK approximation.)

So if we win every time we make our hand, then we have 44% equity, which is way more than enough to call. However, there's a small chance we might not win if we make a straight, because someone might have 56. There's also a small chance that if we make our flush the board will also pair and someone will beat us with a full house. So we probably don't have 44% equity, but if we put our opponents on a range of hands, our equity is definitely more than the absolute worst case which is 28%. Sure we can be up against the worst case hands here occasionally, but the point is that more often than not we are not in a worst case scenario, so from our point of view our equity is well over 30% and this is a very easy call.

Sorry for making fun of your posts and please don't leave the forum. Just don't take it so hard when people poke fun at you - they are used to people making posts pretending not to know much when they really do, and since you already had 100 posts it looked like this might have been the case.

Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, all joking aside, here's the deal:

After BB 3-bets all in on the flop and BTN calls there is $43 in the pot. You need to call $19 to win $43. This means that for this call to be profitable, you need to have a bit more than 30% equity in the pot. Roughly speaking, that means you need win the hand a little more than 30% of the time. (There is also the matter of split pots in equity calculations but we won't worry about that here.)

Think about it this way: If you win $43 30% of the time and lose $19 70% of the time, your expected winnings are:

.3*43 + .7*(-19) ~ 0.

Now we need to decide if we will win more than 30% of the time here. We have 9 outs to the nut flush, and 3 more outs to a straight (not counting the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] twice). When we have 12 outs we have about a 44% chance of making our hand by the river. You multiply the number of outs by 2 to get the chance to making your hand on the next card, and you multiply by 4 to get the chance of making your hand on the next two cards. (Here we subtract the number of outs over 8 that we have - which is 4 - from the final result ie 12*4-(12-8)=44, but we won't get into that either since multiplying by 4 to get 48% is an OK approximation.)

So if we win every time we make our hand, then we have 44% equity, which is way more than enough to call. However, there's a small chance we might not win if we make a straight, because someone might have 56. There's also a small chance that if we make our flush the board will also pair and someone will beat us with a full house. So we probably don't have 44% equity, but if we put our opponents on a range of hands, our equity is definitely more than the absolute worst case which is 28%. Sure we can be up against the worst case hands here occasionally, but the point is that more often than not we are not in a worst case scenario, so from our point of view our equity is well over 30% and this is a very easy call.

Sorry for making fun of your posts and please don't leave the forum. Just don't take it so hard when people poke fun at you - they are used to people making posts pretending not to know much when they really do, and since you already had 100 posts it looked like this might have been the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very helpful thank you. Here's my deal, I've been a profitable tournament player (live and online) for the past 3 years. In tournaments, the math of poker isn't as crucial since every decision you make doesn't come out of your pocket book. Tournaments are all about endurance and chip accumulation, as I'm sure you all know. I'm taking a concious effort to bring my game to the next level and am placing my concentration purely on cash games. I joined CR 4 days ago and purchased PT last week.

It is hard to justify putting up with phucksticks on 2+2 when you can post something on the CR forum and not only get genuine feedback, but its also feedback from other players who are paying a fee for the same service which leads to less of this 2+2 whoring around to find the easiest player to poke fun at.

I appreciate the input on the mathematics of the hand, since I have obviously been confused on the exact interpretation of draws, odds, and equity. Cheers and gl.