Basic River Value Question
 

Hero is Cutoff with AKs.

UTG (55/5 passive postflop) limps, Hero raises, Button (60/20 typical postflop) calls, UTG calls. Three players and 7.5 SB to the flop.

Flop is 322 2-suited none for me. I bet and both call. 5.25 BB to the turn.

Turn is off 7. I bet and only UTG calls. 7.25 BB to the river.

River is a third 2. UTG checks and Hero ???

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

I bet this one, but his WTSD could convince me otherwise.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

I bet it. So many aces he can have and even kings compared to pairs.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea this is definitely the right idea, do u have WTSD for us?

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


---



so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

if he doesnt pay off with Kx, its a really easy check

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


---



so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I give more A high than to pairs based on how he played this. I also think AJ and AQ are possible.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

easy check. Passive postflop and low PFR - he has you beat more often than not (when he pays)

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

if he calls with a bunch of weaker ace-his and maybe something like KQ along with the hands that beat you like the A7 crap and small pps, then yeah. i think it's a thin value bet. but not knowing his range (or not being able to weigh it) and the value of a bet here, i play it safe and check.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

I think it's an easy bet. Even loose passives often donk their pair at some point during this hand, and there's a lot more acehigh combos than pair combos anyway, and he pays off with king high a lot as well, I think.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

Pretty much what Mute said.

This is a standard bet for me

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

I don't know if a lot of king-highs are calling. Still, his range should be weighted against deuces full enough by the third check that you probably have a wire-thin edge when called.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

I think he will show up with a pair a surprising amount of the time. We have a read that he is passive pre and post - this means that he is pretty likely to play a hand like 99 like this.

I used this range as an estimate of what he will _call_ a river bet with:

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/1682/riverzo1.png

If this is the case, he has 84 combos you beat and 120 combos you lose to.

84: AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)
120: A7(9) A3(9) A2(3) K7(9) Q7(12) JJ(6) J7(12) TT(6) T7(3) 99(6) 97(3) 88(6) 87(12) 77(3) 66(6) 55(6) 44(6) 33(3)

So check.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


---



so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

basic problem with this stove is that he donks many of the 7x hands on the turn. i think. actually i really don't know what his range is on any street. my sample in this situation is so small. usually he has the deuce and i'm done on the turn anyhow. or i make a -1.999 bb calldown just to make sure.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

yeah, its tough to give a range when he's somewhat unknown, maybe Stellar has some more info about what made him think this guy is passive post flop. That would be helpful because this spot is genuinely close.

Even if we argue to take some 7x hands out, we could just as easily argue to take some Kx hands out.

FWIW, I still think its a check, but I'd probably bet in practice just cuz I love valuebetting A hi unimproved on 3 streets [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he will show up with a pair a surprising amount of the time. We have a read that he is passive pre and post - this means that he is pretty likely to play a hand like 99 like this.

I used this range as an estimate of what he will _call_ a river bet with:

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/1682/riverzo1.png

If this is the case, he has 84 combos you beat and 120 combos you lose to.

84: AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)
120: A7(9) A3(9) A2(3) K7(9) Q7(12) JJ(6) J7(12) TT(6) T7(3) 99(6) 97(3) 88(6) 87(12) 77(3) 66(6) 55(6) 44(6) 33(3)

So check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're underestimating the number of times a Kx hand will call you on this river.

Rob

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

Any Kx hands are 12 combos as well. (Since we have an A and a K in our hand, all of his non-pair hands are reduced from 16 to 12 combos.)

So if we take the above assumptions and add that he calls KQ-K9, it turns into a bet. KQ-KT and it's breakeven.

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

This is extremly close because we dont know how showdowny he is or how often he value bets his pairs...

Because its extremly close I think this is a bet for metagame reasons.

You will so frequently be taking the bet, bet, check line with UI ace high, that looking for spots where it looks to the fish "you're bluffing" ace high must be a good thing.

Hes more likely to call you really light in the future, as well as play passivly with his pairs if he suspects youll bet your ace high anyway.

Bad players would be less likely for recognizing the situation for what it is.

Im speculating from a game theory standpoint this is very very likely a bet... so when in doubt, do whats right against the average opponent.

But really, everything above is BS... do it cause its fun betting A hi for value [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] GAMB00l!!

Re: Basic River Value Question
 

good analysis, but I think a range of {66-44,AJ-A3,K7,Q7,J7,87,97s,T7s} is more reasonable. Quads, 3s full and overpairs would have probably spoken up, even from a passive player.

Removing these, the range calculator has us as very slight dogs:

There are 171 combinations in this range on this board.

* full house: 87 combos (50.9%)
A7(9) A3(9) K7(9) Q7(12) J7(12) T7(3) 97(3) 87(12) 66(6) 55(6)
44(6)

* trips: 84 combos (49.1%)
AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)


Which would make it seem that checking is best. It's really close though, because with these very mediocre hands, a bad player is almost certainly not going to play the hands the same every time. He'll fold ace high sometimes to your bet. He'll call KQ sometimes. He'll fold 55 once in a while.

Further complicating the situation, even a passive player is going to come alive sometimes and bet the hands in this range. Surely even a passive player will bet his turned 7 on occasion... so you have to discount him having a pair while the ace high hands look solidly in his range.

Figuring out how to discount this stuff is hard, but my experience is that you'll find yourself up against ace high often enough to get value out of a bet. I play in pretty aggressive online games though, where even passive players don't just check call 44-66 on a 332 flop, and where check-calling a turned top pair is also rare. With a read that your opponent really will just check and call all these hands, checking is best.

-Eric